Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks for Monday, April 29th
CheeseIsGood, a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Monday! It just took a little patience, but it appears as though offense is still very much alive in MLB. We had five teams score double-digit runs on Saturday, all the way up to 15, 16, and 17, and three more joined the party yesterday. Last week around this time, I said that I expected offense to pick back up and that I didn’t think it was likely that we were suddenly living in some new dead-ball era. Of course, a few days doesn’t change that one way or another, but what I’m most encouraged by (to stick with that thought) is not just the barrage of runs this weekend but one simple stat:
HR/FB% March – April 2023 – 12.2%
HR/FB% last 7 days – 12.3%
You need to compare April stats to April stats, and this tells me the ball is probably the same ball as last season. Of course, I’m always open to new information changing any opinion, but for now, it looks like business as usual.
With that, let’s dive into this 9-game Monday night slate and see what we can find.
Monday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
At first glance, it appears as if we are going to run into some very heavy chalk on the pitching side. I think I’m good with that chalk, but let’s poke around and see if anything changes.
AN ACE AND A BUNCH OF GOOD PITCHERS
Joe Ryan at White Sox – 29.8% K, 4.8% BB, 4.35 ERA, 3.29 SIERA
Nick Lodolo at Padres – 28.4% K, 5.9% BB, 4.91 ERA, 3.33 SIERA
Ryan Pepiot at Brewers – 25.7% K, 5.6% BB, 2.80 ERA, 3.57 SIERA
Bryce Miller vs. Braves – 22.8% K, 5.7% BB, 3.95 ERA, 4.10 SIERA
Max Fried at Mariners – 23.3% K, 6.4% BB, 3.15 ERA, 3.46 SIERA
Garrett Crochet vs. Twins – 27.5% K, 11.1% BB, 5.53 ERA, 3.84 SIERA
Cristopher Sanchez at Angels – 24.5% K, 5.3% BB, 3.35 ERA, 3.30 SIERA
Luis Severino vs. Cubs – 19.7% K, 8.1% BB, 5.72 ERA, 4.53 SIERA
Joe Ryan is again the ace on this slate, just as he was last week against this White Sox team. He pitched well, with 8 strikeouts in 6 innings, though he did allow a couple home runs, which is the same issue that plagued him last season. Between the matchup, the consistent strikeouts, and the elite control, Ryan is the clear SP1 for me. There will be some lineups where the salary is a bit too high, but overall, he’s going to be in the vast majority of my lineups on both sites, and I’ll let others overthink it.
Nick Lodolo is now into his 4th start of the season, and pitch count is no longer a concern, seeing 90+ pitches in 2 of his 3 starts. The strikeouts have come and gone a bit, and he has yet to allow a home run, which will obviously change sooner rather than later. He’s always playable, but at his salary in a low-strikeout matchup, he’s nothing but a deep MME leftover.
I kind of like Ryan Pepiot in general, but it’s a weird salary for this matchup and this slate. I see him as very close to Lodolo here. Both guys have enough strikeout ability to spike a big start at any time, but I just can’t get them in the same tier as Ryan, and I’d rather just save more salary for an SP2.
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
