MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, April 27th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
The slates are split today, but we’re here to discuss the manageable 7-game main slate that gets underway at 7:10 ET. The pitching pool isn’t quite as deep as it was yesterday, so there’s plenty to like on both sides of things. There are a few obvious stacks worth targeting, so we could see some concentrated ownership with bats this evening.
Whom should we be stacking up tonight?
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Saturday, April 27th
Chalk Stack – Braves vs. Tanner Bibee
It says a lot about the quality of the Braves’ lineup that we’re looking at quite a bit of projected ownership for them even in a matchup against a pretty good pitcher. Tanner Bibee pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA last season for Cleveland, but it’s been a different story to begin the 2024 campaign.
The right hander’s 23.4% strikeout rate is comparable to the one he posted last season, but his walk and barrel rates are both up over 10%. Interestingly enough, Bibee’s 4.19 SIERA is identical to last year’s mark, so perhaps he was always due for some regression on that super-low ERA. The BABIP Gods (.338) haven’t favored him thus far, and he’s allowed 4 homers through 5 starts.
Bibee looks decent enough, but we’ve successfully stacked Atlanta against more talented pitchers over the past couple of seasons. The issue – as always – is trying to afford them. The sites know the Braves are good, so they’re priced accordingly. All of Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, and Ozzie Albies are north of $5,000 on DraftKings, while 3 of the 4 (excluding Olson) are over $4,000 on FanDuel.
You’ll see a sea of green when you pull the Braves up on PlateIQ, with Ozuna (16%), Olson (15.8%), and Albies (12.1%) leading the pack in terms of barrel rate vs. right-handed pitching on the year. Acuna is priced up despite the fact that he hasn’t really gotten it going just yet.
Fully stacking the good stuff requires us to make some business decisions elsewhere in our lineups. On FanDuel, getting to 4 Braves may also mean playing someone like Chris Paddack ($7,800) at pitcher. Is that viable? Against the Angels, it sure is. Is it comfortable? Most certainly not.
On DraftKings, most Braves stacks I’m generating predictably come as a package deal with some combination of Paddack ($6,800), Carlos Rodon ($7,400), and Jose Soriano ($7,000). I’d say it’s easier to prioritize Atlanta on FanDuel, and the projections agree. The Braves’ 20.3% optimal rate is the highest on the board over there, and it trounces their 13% projected stack ownership. On DK, however, the Braves’ optimal rate (5%) is about half of their stack pOWN%.
PIVOT STACKS
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