MMA DFS Expert Survey: UFC Fight Night - Nicolau vs. Perez
Our panel of experts is here to give you their MMA DFS advice for this week’s contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Squirrelpatrol’s favorite value play? Or h3budda’s top fighter for tournaments? Find out below!
MMA DFS Picks: DraftKings Expert Survey for UFC Fight Night – Nicolau vs. Perez
How are you handling the glaring value that is James Llontop ($8,200) in your DraftKings contests?
eys819: Llontop is a massive favorite with very solid odds to win inside the distance. He has a great chance to make the optimal lineup with any victory thanks to his volume and would almost be a shoo-in for the optimal with a finish. My plan is to be overweight on both sides of the fight despite the huge pOWN% number for Llontop.
Moneyball16: He is 100% a play in cash. In GPPs, I think he is in a fight that you will want a piece of one way or another. Lllontop’s cheap price makes the bar to clear pretty low to end up in the optimal, but his opponent is priced normally and should have low ownership and high leverage. Besides that, both of these fighters are making their UFC debut, so it is hard to know exactly how they will react to that.
h3budda: Unfortunately, I think you have to make him a priority to match the field and auto lock in cash. He is making his debut, and that is a concern, but he will have great output on the feet, with massive finish equity at -165. I like taking these values long term. Usually you have massive leverage equity on the other side of this, but I struggle to see his opponent limiting Llontop’s upside.
squirrelpatrol: Llontop isn’t just a good play because he has excellent win odds for the price due to the opponent change in his fight, but he was extremely high volume in his contender series win that landed him his UFC contract. Llontop racked up two knockdowns and 175 total strikes in his win on the DWCS last September, and I won’t argue with the math that results from his opponent switch. I expect to have Llontop in 50% or more of my rosters.
Bward586: Llontop is obviously a cash game lock. Based on his moneyline odds, he’s about $1,100 too cheap and a clear value. While I’ll have a ton of him in GPPs, stranger things have happened than a last-second debutant pulling off an upset. For that reason, I think you need to have 100% exposure to this fight while trying to be overweight on Padilla (which won’t take much exposure).