2021 NFL Betting and Fantasy Team Preview: Dallas Cowboys
After a disappointing 2020 season in which Dak Prescott suffered a season-ending injury and the Cowboys limped to the finish line, things appear much brighter this season. Thanks in large part to playing in a poor division, Dallas is projected to win the NFC East this year after the Football Team just snuck by the Giants – largely thanks to the Eagles – to take the crown last season. Always a polarizing team amongst bettors, more Cowboys fans than ever will be able to legally wager on the NFL this season with sports betting expanding into new states. If Dak’s leg can hold up, Dallas could be a threat in the NFC. Let’s dig into the 2021 team from a betting and fantasy perspective to see what we can uncover.
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Dallas Cowboys Team Betting Preview
Win Total (over):9.5 (-110)
Games Favored:9
Games as a TD Favorite:3
Games as a TD Underdog:2
Dallas’ season win total sits between a juiced O9 (-120) and 9.5 (-110) with a week leading up to the regular season. In a division as poor as theirs in which they’ll play six games, it’s not all that hard to envision a 10-7 season. They are more than touchdown underdogs in the opener in Tampa and also have to play the Chiefs on the road later in the season, so the sledding isn’t all that easy outside of the division. I’m not seeing any value on either side of the number, but would lean slightly to the over with Dak back and what should be a stronger defense behind newly-added DC Dan Quinn. A handful of exciting offseason additions – drafting Micah Parsons and Kelvin Joseph while signing Keanu Neal and Damontae Kazee – will help enforce a unit that was treated like tissue paper at times last season.
While I don’t have a bet on any Cowboys futures, I do see some value on their opening night point spread. Dallas sits as a 7.5 point underdog to the Bucs in Tampa for the Thursday season-opener, and that’s the number I’d need to get down on Dallas. With a healthy Dak and Co. to give the Bucs defense a real Week 1 test, I think the Cowboys defense can do enough to keep it within a touchdown.
Dallas Cowboys Team Projections Preview
Projected Offense Rank:4
Projected Rush Offense Rating: Strong
Projected Pass Offense Rating: Elite
Projected Points Earned:433.75 (Rank 10)
Rushing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Rush Defenses Faced:6
Projected Soft Rush Defenses Faced:3
Passing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Pass Defenses Faced:5
Projected Soft Pass Defenses Faced:6
Team Defense Rank:29
Projected Rush Defense Rating:Below Average
Projected Pass Defense Rating:Weak
Projected Points Allowed:414.75 (Rank 10)
The Cowboys are projected to put up plenty of points this season, ranking 4th in projected offense. Their pass offense ranks as elite, but a healthy offensive line could vault the rushing attack into elite territory as well. At this point, Dallas is expected to face more run-stuffing defenses than those that are stout through the air. The main area of concern for the Cowboys is their defense, but the addition of Dan Quinn and Neal/Kazee – both of whom played for Quinn in Atlanta – could make an improvement. Dallas also spent 1st and 2nd round picks on defense, so it won’t be at all surprising if they finish better than 29th, where they are currently projected.
Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Football Preview
Noteworthy Depth Chart
QB: Dak Prescott – Underdog Rank: QB5 (ADP QB5)
RB: Ezekiel Elliott – Underdog Rank: RB9 (ADP RB5)
RB: Tony Pollard – Underdog Rank: RB38 (ADP RB37)
WR: CeeDee Lamb – Underdog Rank: WR13 (ADP WR10)
WR: Amari Cooper – Underdog Rank: WR20 (ADP WR13)
WR: Michael Gallup – Underdog Rank: WR35 (ADP WR36)
TE: Blake Jarwin – Underdog Rank: TE21 (ADP TE23)
What’s New?: Oddly, almost nothing. Sure, Dak’s return is going to make a massive difference, but in terms of skill position players there isn’t any real turnover. Blake Jarwin steps in as the top option at the TE spot after being stuck in somewhat of a revolving door last season, but will still have to fight for looks with Cooper, Lamb and Gallup commanding plenty of attention. CeeDee Lamb is expected to take a big step forward this season, which may lead to a small step back for Amari Cooper in Dak’s pecking order. Given that this offense is going to be one of the highest scoring units in the league, there is certainly enough to go around.
What’s Uncertain?: How will Dak’s injury impact his rushing numbers? Will Zeke improve statistically? Can CeeDee Lamb take over as the top target?
Dallas paid Dak this offseason even after a serious leg injury ended his 2020 campaign, but it’s still a little unclear how the injury will impact his rushing numbers. It’s still likely he’ll make an impact in that area, and it’s not like he can’t produce with his arm, but added hesitancy to tuck it and run would eat away at some precious rushing output. One thing is for sure – Dallas should be able to move the ball on the ground one way or another. Zeke has taken a small step back as a season-long option with Tony Pollard being a thorn in his side, but stability on the offensive line and at quarterback should help prop up Zeke’s totals from 2020 if he himself is able to stay on the field. We’ve already touched on the elite weapons Dak has at his disposal, but it’s fair to wonder whether Lamb or Cooper will end up as the most productive option at the end of the year. Michael Gallup is still in town and can explode with big stat lines of his own, and deciding between the three each week isn’t going to be easy for DFS purposes.
Top Fantasy Play(s): Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper