Daily Pitcher Breakdown: April 23rd

The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher TM OPP IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Simon CIN PIT 21 0.86 3.80 0.81 16.3% 5.0% 0.43 1.38
Morton PIT CIN 25 4.32 4.01 1.32 45.0% 15.6% 6.4% 1.08 2.15
Vargas KCR CLE 29 1.24 4.35 0.93 45.8% 14.7% 5.5% 0.93 1.08
Masterson CLE KCR 21.2 4.98 3.58 1.60 55.2% 23.8% 10.9% 0.42 2.78
Weaver LAA WAS 24.2 4.74 4.49 1.12 58.3% 20.2% 10.1% 1.82 0.70
Gonzalez WAS LAA 25 2.88 3.61 1.08 62.5% 23.5% 7.8% 0.72 0.86
Tillman BAL TOR 26.1 1.71 4.08 1.11 48.5% 18.4% 6.4% 0.68 1.00
McGowan TOR BAL 13 4.85 5.27 1.92 12.3% 9.2% 0.69 0.59
Rienzo CWS DET 50.0%
Smyly DET CWS 9 4.00 3.47 1.22 22.2% 8.3% 1.00 1.40
Wacha STL NYM 26 1.73 2.83 0.88 55.6% 24.3% 2.9% 0.69 1.31
Niese NYM STL 19 2.84 3.46 1.11 54.2% 21.6% 6.8% 0.95 1.70
Pelfrey MIN TBR 14.2 7.98 6.85 1.97 17.2% 9.6% 16.4% 3.07 0.81
Odorizzi TBR MIN 16 5.63 4.50 1.56 16.9% 9.9% 0.56 1.35
Pineda NYY BOS 18 1.00 3.77 0.89 22.1% 4.4% 0.50 0.46
Lackey BOS NYY 24 5.25 3.61 1.46 51.7% 22.1% 6.7% 1.88 1.05
Ross SDP MIL 25.1 2.13 3.61 1.24 50.0% 23.4% 10.3% 0.36 2.00
Lohse MIL SDP 27 2.67 3.71 1.11 43.8% 23.2% 8.9% 0.67 0.91
Hamels PHI LAD 60.6%
Greinke LAD PHI 22.1 2.42 2.06 1.04 64.3% 32.2% 4.4% 2.01 1.77


Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

BEST BUYS:

michael-wacha-300x200

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.

Michael Wacha, STL (at NYM) – He has been incredible thus far with seemingly everything clicking for him. He’s basically a deal at any outlet where he isn’t the most expensive arm on the board, especially against a low-octane Mets offense.

Gio Gonzalez, WAS (v. LAA) – Short of the Braves getting to him, Gonzalez has been excellent this year. He’s once again led by his killer curveball which is currently yielding a .140 wOBA and 44% strikeout rate. The Angels have a .145 wOBA against lefty curves (fifth-worst) albeit in a modest 35 PA sample.

Tyson Ross, SD (at MIL) – Ross struggled with his control in his first two starts, but he tightened up his fastball which allowed him to lean on the slider and changeup more often which has yielded 11 of the 16 Ks in his last two starts. More importantly, he’s logged just two walks after nine in those first two starts.

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Alfredo Simon, CIN (at PIT) – Simon has been brilliant in three starts as the fill-in for Mat Latos. He’s really altered from his approach as a reliever when he’d just grip it and rip it. Simon has pounded the zone with fastball-slider while mixing in a curveball and splitter. It’s yielded a 55% groundball rate and a career-best five percent walk rate. The strikeouts have tumbled as a result (16.3%), but he’s been great.

GOOD BUYS:

This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.

Zack Greinke, LAD (v. PHI) / Cole Hamels, PHI (at LAD) – This has the makings of the Fernandez-Wood battle we saw last night. Now I’m not sure Hamels will be given the leash to go eight innings, especially with double-digit strikeouts, but he can get into the seventh if he’s efficient (think “Ervin Santana(player-profile)”:/players/Ervin_Santana-10654’s debut). The Dodgers don’t hit lefties well (.259 wOBA) and their 28.9% strikeout rate against them is baseball’s worst. Greinke has been excellent in his four starts with a 2.42 ERA and 29 Ks in 22.3 IP. Homers have been an issue (5 allowed, one fewer than his earned run total), but the Phillies have just nine against righties this year (league average is 13).

Jonathon Niese, NYM (v. STL) – We could another pitcher’s duel in New York as Niese has also looked great this year, plus he gets baseball’s worst team against lefties so far this year. The Cards have a .229 wOBA against lefties, way worse than the .251 of the Royals in 29th. Niese is underrated. He’s struggled with staying healthy, but there’s a lot of talent here.

Kyle Lohse, MIL (v. SD) – Lohse has had a strikeout component to his game so far this year (26 in 27 IP) though I’m still not sure how real it is. The Padres offer a nice chance to stay hot with the punchouts. They have a .280 wOBA against righties with a 24% K rate.

Chris Tillman, BAL (at TOR) – Tillman hasn’t allowed a homer in his last 17 IP and he’s only allowed two all year (0.68 HR/9). Homers have always plagued Tillman, but he’s prevented them at a great clip early on and against a rough slate (BOS, at DET, TOR, at BOS)

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Michael Pineda, NYY (at BOS) – The rematch from the pine tar incident. Pineda was good against the Cubs in the start following the incident, but his Ks dropped from seven to three. Was it pine tar related? Impossible to say. Obviously all eyes will be on the hand tonight in Boston, but I think Pineda will still hold his own, regardless of whether or not he finds a way to utilize some pine tar.

Drew Smyly, DET (v. CWS) – After a pair of three-inning relief stints, perhaps Smyly thought that was all he needed to do now as he was out after three innings in his first start of the season. His command eluded him and he just never found a groove against the Angels. The White Sox do their best work against righties and plummet to 20th in wOBA against lefties at .287. I think Smyly has a much better second start.

Jason Vargas, KC (at CLE) – Vargas has gone 7+ IP with 2 or fewer ER in each of his first four starts this season. Funny what healthy can do a guy, huh? He’s always leaned on a strong changeup and it’s been excellent this year with a 385 OPS against – fourth-best behind Cliff Lee, Martin Perez, and Mark Buehrle. That’s not great news for the Indians as they’ve amassed just a 487 against lefty changeups – 24th in the league.

USE CAUTION:

Jered Weaver, LAA (at WAS) – The biggest concern with Weaver’s uneven start is the 10.1% BB rate. That’s very uncharacteristic of him. He thrives on command, especially as his velocity continues to erode. I’d have a hard time trusting him in a one-game event against anything regarded as a league average offense or better.

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John Lackey, BOS (v. NYY) – After two gems, he has back-to-back 10 H/6 ER shellackings, including four homers allowed in the Bronx. He’s faced a murderous slate to start with Baltimore twice, Texas, and the Yankees. I’d probably sit this one out, but I’m not really shying away from Lackey overall.

Jake Odorizzi, TB (v. MIN) – Odorizzi is still developing and the Rays are allowing him to do so on the job. Of course that yields a ton of volatility, precisely what we don’t need in the daily game.

Charlie Morton, PIT (v. CIN) – He’s only faced two teams among his four starts – the Cubs and Brewers. He’s handled each the first time and then given up 5 ER the second time around five days later. Dating back to last year, the Reds have an NL-best .391 wOBA against righty sinkers – Morton’s primary pitch. Additionally, the Reds offense has looked much better of late so while I like Morton as a cheaper option who can give you six strong, the upside doesn’t look great in this given matchup.

Dustin McGowan, TOR (v. BAL) – He’s still working his way back from essentially four years off. He had 25.7 IP a year ago and 21 in 2011, but missed all of 2010 and 2012. Similar to the development of a young arm like Odorizzi, this factor for McGowan also breeds uncertainty. He handled the O’s for his only good outing of the year so far, but that doesn’t make me inclined to double down.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.
Andre Rienzo, CWS (at DET)
Mike Pelfrey, MIN (at TB)


Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher wOBA vs L ERA vs L wOBA vs R ERA vs R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Simon 0.307 3.17 0.243 2.02 0.229 0.670 0.197 3.17 0.173 60.33 66.9%
Morton 0.365 4.84 0.274 2.56 0.259 0.716 0.295 4.60 0.265 70.00 68.2%
Vargas 0.333 2.68 0.319 3.92 0.218 0.626 0.214 3.94 0.204 82.00 64.9%
Masterson 0.319 4.00 0.244 3.12 0.268 0.689 0.355 3.40 0.264 72.75 59.5%
Weaver 0.285 3.58 0.319 3.34 0.237 0.693 0.190 5.43 0.193 73.50 57.1%
Gonzalez 0.261 3.55 0.307 3.27 0.252 0.786 0.254 3.28 0.204 73.75 64.4%
Tillman 0.322 3.73 0.301 3.23 0.242 0.695 0.250 3.34 0.216 80.25 65.1%
McGowan 0.318 3.48 0.322 3.06 0.272 0.703 0.375 4.69 0.333 54.00 63.6%
Rienzo 0.342 4.93 0.365 4.67 0.261 0.709
Smyly 0.204 2.13 0.327 2.89 0.218 0.597 0.292 3.74 0.242 32.67 65.3%
Wacha 0.237 1.61 0.291 3.35 0.224 0.635 0.254 2.73 0.204 69.50 67.6%
Niese 0.272 3.38 0.341 3.72 0.175 0.496 0.275 3.55 0.232 62.00 64.5%
Pelfrey 0.335 5.18 0.378 5.87 0.258 0.775 0.229 9.21 0.267 61.67 56.2%
Odorizzi 0.355 4.94 0.287 4.15 0.256 0.755 0.333 3.70 0.281 94.67 61.3%
Pineda 0.290 1.64 0.193 0.243 0.674 0.245 2.63 0.2 88.67 66.9%
Lackey 0.295 3.31 0.340 4.25 0.257 0.714 0.333 4.74 0.289 70.00 72.1%
Ross 0.318 3.55 0.249 2.45 0.263 0.718 0.275 3.04 0.211 73.50 61.2%
Lohse 0.327 3.96 0.279 2.73 0.241 0.641 0.243 3.23 0.196 76.25 65.2%
Hamels 0.314 5.11 0.307 3.21 0.215 0.636
Greinke 0.328 3.22 0.253 2.15 0.226 0.618 0.269 3.93 0.221 72.75 64.6%


Starting Pitcher Salaries

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

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About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.