Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 19th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anderson | ARI | WAS | 73.1 | 3.19 | 3.91 | 1.30 | 40.0% | 20.5% | 8.1% | 1.35 | 1.15 |
| Strasburg | WAS | ARI | 151.1 | 3.39 | 2.66 | 1.21 | 52.4% | 28.2% | 5.3% | 0.83 | 1.48 |
| Oberholtzer | HOU | NYY | 90.2 | 4.17 | 4.43 | 1.38 | 41.7% | 14.9% | 5.4% | 0.69 | 0.83 |
| Capuano | NYY | HOU | 50.2 | 3.91 | 3.78 | 1.42 | 20.4% | 8.9% | 0.53 | 1.20 | |
| Iwakuma | SEA | PHI | 125.1 | 2.94 | 3.02 | 0.99 | 60.0% | 20.9% | 2.3% | 0.93 | 1.63 |
| Burnett | PHI | SEA | 151.1 | 4.16 | 4.15 | 1.38 | 38.1% | 18.8% | 10.0% | 0.77 | 1.78 |
| Harang | ATL | PIT | 142.1 | 3.41 | 4.32 | 1.39 | 75.0% | 18.1% | 8.9% | 0.57 | 1.06 |
| Liriano | PIT | ATL | 101.1 | 3.91 | 3.61 | 1.34 | 12.5% | 25.2% | 11.2% | 0.89 | 1.86 |
| Scherzer | DET | TBR | 153 | 3.24 | 3.07 | 1.20 | 60.0% | 27.3% | 7.0% | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| Archer | TBR | DET | 131.2 | 3.42 | 3.84 | 1.31 | 55.0% | 20.9% | 9.1% | 0.41 | 1.65 |
| Weaver | LAA | BOS | 150.1 | 3.59 | 4.24 | 1.18 | 52.4% | 18.8% | 7.4% | 1.08 | 0.68 |
| Webster | BOS | LAA | |||||||||
| Mikolas | TEX | MIA | 33.1 | 7.29 | 4.51 | 1.53 | 14.6% | 7.3% | 0.81 | 1.23 | |
| Cosart | MIA | TEX | 121.2 | 4.51 | 4.40 | 1.45 | 31.6% | 14.7% | 10.0% | 0.52 | 2.26 |
| Vogelsong | SFG | CHC | 133.2 | 3.64 | 3.88 | 1.28 | 52.6% | 19.3% | 6.2% | 0.67 | 0.99 |
| Wada | CHC | SFG | 21.2 | 3.32 | 3.93 | 1.34 | 20.7% | 8.7% | 0.42 | 1.24 | |
| Bauer | CLE | MIN | 96.1 | 4.20 | 3.98 | 1.42 | 38.5% | 21.3% | 8.4% | 1.03 | 0.73 |
| Gibson | MIN | CLE | 121.1 | 3.93 | 4.17 | 1.21 | 52.6% | 13.3% | 6.4% | 0.59 | 1.93 |
| Happ | TOR | MIL | 95.1 | 4.34 | 4.30 | 1.45 | 30.8% | 18.6% | 9.2% | 1.04 | 0.99 |
| Fiers | MIL | TOR | |||||||||
| Tillman | BAL | CWS | 143 | 3.78 | 4.61 | 1.31 | 42.9% | 15.4% | 8.4% | 0.88 | 1.06 |
| Quintana | CWS | BAL | 142.1 | 3.04 | 3.58 | 1.23 | 50.0% | 21.3% | 7.2% | 0.38 | 1.52 |
| Simon | CIN | STL | 138 | 3.07 | 4.15 | 1.12 | 63.2% | 15.0% | 6.2% | 1.11 | 1.59 |
| Lackey | STL | CIN | 144.1 | 3.55 | 3.55 | 1.22 | 57.9% | 20.0% | 5.3% | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Shields | KCR | COL | 157.1 | 3.43 | 3.64 | 1.25 | 42.9% | 19.2% | 5.0% | 1.03 | 1.31 |
| Matzek | COL | KCR | 59.1 | 5.31 | 4.54 | 1.50 | 25.0% | 14.2% | 7.7% | 0.76 | 1.35 |
| Gee | NYM | OAK | 82 | 3.73 | 4.14 | 1.12 | 50.0% | 17.7% | 7.2% | 1.21 | 1.15 |
| Kazmir | OAK | NYM | 135.1 | 2.53 | 3.40 | 1.06 | 63.2% | 22.0% | 5.8% | 0.73 | 1.32 |
| Kennedy | SDP | LAD | 140.1 | 3.59 | 3.31 | 1.23 | 47.6% | 25.7% | 8.1% | 0.71 | 1.16 |
| Correia | LAD | SDP | 129.1 | 4.94 | 4.91 | 1.46 | 45.0% | 10.7% | 5.6% | 0.90 | 1.05 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
PLATINUM BUYS:
These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.
Max Scherzer DET (at TB)
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (at PHI)
Stephen Strasburg WAS (v. ARI) – Yes, he still belongs here.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Chris Archer TB (v. DET) – He’s had a few hiccups in the course of the season, but he’s been great for the majority of his starts. In fact, after a 5 IP/5 ER against Toronto on July 11th, he’s put together a 2.59 ERA over five starts during which he’s gone at least 6 IP in each, accumulating 34 Ks and a 3.8 K:BB ratio in 31.3 IP. The Tigers offense has been hobbling along in August with just 3.8 runs per game, so this is actually as good a time as any to get a normally difficult offense.
Francisco Liriano PIT (v. ATL) – After a tune up in his return from the DL (4 IP/3 ER, 6 BB v. CIN), he’s been on fire for six straight starts with a 1.89 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 3.5 K:BB ratio (thanks in large part to 42 Ks, but also 12 BBs register a healthy 2.8 BB9) in 38 IP of work. Liriano’s excellence last year was built on his domination of lefties so when he allowed an .892 OPS to them in the first half, everyone was understandably confused. He’s holding them to a .491 OPS since the break (the same six starts chronicled above) which isn’t quite at last year’s historic .321 clip, but still markedly better than his .575 career OPS against lefties.
Ian Kennedy SD (at LAD) – Kennedy spent most of the early season hanging out in the upper-3.00s with his ERA before finally jumping over 4.00 on June 25th, but since then he has reeled off eight strong starts with a 2.57 ERA in 49 IP (with 52 Ks and a 2.1 K:BB ratio). The walks high during that run (4.6 BB9), but it’s a lot less damaging with a 7.0 H9 and 9.6 K9. The Dodgers have been a league average offense since the break, which of course doesn’t make them a walkover by any sort, but Kennedy has held his own with a 3.50 ERA in three starts (18 IP) including eight scoreless the last time he faced them (July 12th at LAD).
Jose Quintana CWS (v. BAL) – He is one of the most underrated arms in the game, although that’s starting to change. At some point he is just too good to ignore. Since giving up 10 ER in 10.3 IP across two early-June starts, he has posted a 2.15 ERA in his last 11 with 67 Ks and a 3.2 K:BB ratio in 71 IP. He had a 3.31 ERA in his 12 starts before those two less-than-stellar outings. Add it all up (in other words, lift those two duds) and he has a 2.76 ERA in 23 of his 25 starts with two tough outings raising his season mark by 0.38 runs. You have to be careful picking and choosing starts, but it’s not like we are just plucking his eight or nine best. This is 92% of his season where he has been dominant, including a 7 IP/1 ER route of Baltimore at Camden Yards.
Scott Kazmir OAK (v. NYM) – Can he avenge the pounding his drafting franchise doled out in Citi Field back in late-June? My guess is “yes”. The 3 IP/7 ER disaster at NYM was a shock on many levels, but that’s why we are only dealing with probabilities when it comes to projection. Kazmir had been one of baseball’s best at the time (2.08 ERA through 15 starts) and the Mets were a bottom-10 team against lefties (bottom five at home), yet they crushed him! The Mets are now 27th on the season and dead-last since the break (.497), well behind Minnesota (.570). Kazmir has a 5.11 ERA in his last four starts, but that really boils down to two bad innings (4 ER in 5th inn. v. KC, 5 ER in 7th v. MIN).
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
John Lackey STL (v. CIN) – Lackey’s scant track record with STL looks awful on the whole with a 6.16 ERA in three starts, but it’s really just one start muddying the waters entirely. He has a pair of 7 IP/2 ER efforts sandwiching a horrific 5 IP/9 ER nightmare at Baltimore (a team that has basically owned him all year with a 9.14 ERA in four starts). I think he’s going to be fine, especially against this team that can’t hit righties (25th v. RHP for the season; 30th since the break).
Ryan Vogelsong SF (at CHC) – Vogey is having a killer August (1.64 ERA in three starts) and in fact the bulk of his season has been quite good. After posting a 7.71 ERA in his first four starts of the season, he has a 3.18 ERA in his last 20 (124.3 IP) with a 7.5 K9 and 3.6 K:BB ratio. Of course his numbers don’t even need to be that good to start him (or almost anyone) against the Cubs.
Chase Anderson ARI (at WAS) – Anderson was toting a 3.63 ERA through his first eight MLB starts, but with eight homers allowed, it was tough to buy into it fully. In his last seven starts, he’s curbed the home run issue (4 in 40.7 IP) en route to a 2.66 ERA with 40 Ks and a solid 2.9 K:BB ratio. The Nats have plenty of star power up-and-down their lineup, but yet the results haven’t been there.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Tsuyoshi Wada CHC (v. SF) – We are but six starts into his career, but he just keeps getting it done. In fact, since San Diego (of all teams!) popped him for 4 IP/5 ER, he’s put up four straight starts allowing 2 or fewer ER with 6, 6, 6, and 5 Ks (a total of 23 in 25.3 IP). I’ve been really impressed with the early part of Wada’s MLB career. He isn’t overpowering, but he commands his stuff well and generally avoids trouble. He pounds the zone which can lead to some homers (1.0 HR9 rate at both Triple-A and MLB), but if you aren’t putting guys on (1.17 WHIP), then you can survive.
Chris Capuano NYY (v. HOU) – Relegated to the pen with Boston, Capuano was great through May, but then allowed 10 ER in four June innings before eventually joining the Yankees and jumping back into the rotation. He has looked solid with them going at least 6 IP in all four starts with 24 Ks in 25 IP. While Houston has done their best work against lefties this year (.754 OPS sits fifth on the year), but they’ve sunk to 16th since the break with a .686 OPS against southpaws that includes a 26% K rate.
Kevin Correia LAD (v. SD) – This isn’t just because of San Diego. In fact, it’s worth noting that they’ve been the 9th-best offense against righties since the break with .309 wOBA and yet I’m still not the least bit worried about starting a pitcher against them. In addition to the great matchup, Correia has been pitching well of late with a 3.52 ERA in his last 12 starts which constitutes as a hot streak when you have a 6.11 ERA in your first 12 starts.
Alfredo Simon CIN (at STL) – Last Chance Saloon time for Simon. He’s had a rough August (7.20 ERA in three 5 IP starts), but two of them don’t worry as much because they aren’t surprising at all. Cleveland has killed righties all year and then a trip to Coors was the prime time to bench Simon. He had a 2.84 ERA in his first 21 starts and I have a hard time believing that it was a stone-cold fluke. His price has now plummeted at most outlets making it easier to jump on board even with the skepticism behind his numbers. This is his first crack at a Cardinals offense that has ranked just 20th in OPS with a .681 mark and even though they’ve jumped to 14th since the break, their OPS is actually worse at .677.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Kyle Gibson MIN (v. CLE)
- Tyler Matzek COL (v. KC)
- Allen Webster BOS (v. LAA)
- Miles Mikolas TEX (v. MIA)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anderson | 0.273 | 2.70 | 0.381 | 3.60 | 0.241 | 0.687 | 0.286 | 4.47 | 0.25 | 93.00 | 20.5% |
| Strasburg | 0.281 | 2.62 | 0.320 | 3.98 | 0.253 | 0.695 | 0.341 | 2.74 | 0.254 | 99.38 | 28.2% |
| Oberholtzer | 0.292 | 2.95 | 0.338 | 4.54 | 0.264 | 0.721 | 0.322 | 3.62 | 0.284 | 94.33 | 14.9% |
| Capuano | 0.366 | 5.30 | 0.290 | 3.09 | 0.265 | 0.750 | 0.316 | 3.39 | 0.255 | 27.42 | 20.4% |
| Iwakuma | 0.307 | 3.48 | 0.229 | 2.42 | 0.240 | 0.658 | 0.279 | 3.14 | 0.239 | 94.50 | 20.9% |
| Burnett | 0.357 | 5.40 | 0.300 | 3.19 | 0.243 | 0.687 | 0.291 | 4.10 | 0.245 | 101.50 | 18.8% |
| Harang | 0.338 | 2.91 | 0.296 | 3.84 | 0.260 | 0.740 | 0.310 | 3.57 | 0.26 | 104.04 | 18.1% |
| Liriano | 0.349 | 4.64 | 0.297 | 3.71 | 0.259 | 0.734 | 0.291 | 3.79 | 0.226 | 91.11 | 25.2% |
| Scherzer | 0.316 | 3.83 | 0.279 | 2.45 | 0.252 | 0.699 | 0.316 | 3.01 | 0.24 | 108.83 | 27.3% |
| Archer | 0.280 | 3.08 | 0.315 | 3.84 | 0.271 | 0.747 | 0.305 | 3.25 | 0.243 | 98.14 | 20.9% |
| Weaver | 0.320 | 3.83 | 0.260 | 3.22 | 0.243 | 0.685 | 0.260 | 4.16 | 0.23 | 97.21 | 18.8% |
| Webster | 0.256 | 0.721 | |||||||||
| Mikolas | 0.306 | 8.10 | 0.364 | 6.08 | 0.246 | 0.690 | 0.325 | 4.07 | 0.288 | 90.33 | 14.6% |
| Cosart | 0.326 | 3.96 | 0.301 | 5.07 | 0.252 | 0.680 | 0.299 | 3.98 | 0.26 | 98.76 | 14.7% |
| Vogelsong | 0.336 | 3.71 | 0.309 | 3.58 | 0.232 | 0.666 | 0.313 | 3.45 | 0.261 | 95.78 | 19.3% |
| Wada | 0.376 | 4.70 | 0.248 | 0.702 | 0.317 | 3.23 | 0.253 | 93.50 | 20.7% | ||
| Bauer | 0.325 | 4.57 | 0.346 | 3.91 | 0.246 | 0.701 | 0.326 | 3.99 | 0.269 | 102.00 | 21.3% |
| Gibson | 0.320 | 3.57 | 0.256 | 4.32 | 0.262 | 0.749 | 0.271 | 3.71 | 0.245 | 89.67 | 13.3% |
| Happ | 0.321 | 4.98 | 0.344 | 4.15 | 0.243 | 0.704 | 0.310 | 4.25 | 0.267 | 84.65 | 18.6% |
| Fiers | 0.271 | 0.778 | |||||||||
| Tillman | 0.312 | 3.33 | 0.307 | 4.31 | 0.260 | 0.735 | 0.270 | 4.26 | 0.242 | 99.25 | 15.4% |
| Quintana | 0.284 | 4.38 | 0.285 | 2.56 | 0.258 | 0.736 | 0.308 | 2.84 | 0.244 | 106.30 | 21.3% |
| Simon | 0.317 | 3.88 | 0.272 | 2.24 | 0.250 | 0.678 | 0.246 | 4.49 | 0.23 | 93.41 | 15.0% |
| Lackey | 0.306 | 3.57 | 0.311 | 3.53 | 0.243 | 0.674 | 0.296 | 3.58 | 0.254 | 102.32 | 20.0% |
| Shields | 0.333 | 3.33 | 0.316 | 3.54 | 0.279 | 0.768 | 0.306 | 3.81 | 0.263 | 107.63 | 19.2% |
| Matzek | 0.277 | 3.46 | 0.375 | 5.83 | 0.261 | 0.692 | 0.327 | 4.10 | 0.29 | 83.55 | 14.2% |
| Gee | 0.325 | 5.11 | 0.277 | 2.60 | 0.254 | 0.732 | 0.241 | 4.43 | 0.221 | 95.00 | 17.7% |
| Kazmir | 0.264 | 2.25 | 0.276 | 2.61 | 0.246 | 0.668 | 0.271 | 3.23 | 0.223 | 95.00 | 22.0% |
| Kennedy | 0.295 | 2.66 | 0.310 | 4.38 | 0.265 | 0.737 | 0.307 | 3.11 | 0.235 | 103.91 | 25.7% |
| Correia | 0.341 | 4.19 | 0.349 | 5.79 | 0.226 | 0.635 | 0.312 | 4.36 | 0.293 | 92.26 | 10.7% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window