Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 22nd
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gausman | BAL | CHC | 73.0 | 3.70 | 4.64 | 1.38 | 37.5% | 15.60% | 9.5% | 0.37 | 1.23 |
| Arrieta | CHC | BAL | 117.1 | 2.61 | 2.96 | 1.02 | 50.0% | 26.20% | 6.7% | 0.31 | 1.66 |
| Danks | CWS | NYY | 153.0 | 4.94 | 4.72 | 1.47 | 50.0% | 14.70% | 8.5% | 1.35 | 1.00 |
| Greene | NYY | CWS | 43.1 | 2.91 | 3.35 | 1.22 | 100.0% | 21.30% | 7.7% | 0.62 | 2.46 |
| Peacock | HOU | CLE | 102.0 | 5.47 | 4.56 | 1.64 | 28.6% | 19.30% | 11.9% | 1.41 | 0.96 |
| Carrasco | CLE | HOU | 77.0 | 3.27 | 2.91 | 1.05 | 0.0% | 23.10% | 5.9% | 0.58 | 1.76 |
| Hudson | SFG | WAS | 154.1 | 3.03 | 3.63 | 1.18 | 68.4% | 15.00% | 4.3% | 0.64 | 2.18 |
| Fister | WAS | SFG | 118.2 | 2.20 | 3.82 | 1.05 | 58.3% | 15.50% | 2.9% | 0.83 | 1.37 |
| Wainwright | STL | PHI | 176.0 | 2.40 | 3.55 | 1.03 | 84.2% | 20.50% | 5.9% | 0.31 | 1.44 |
| Kendrick | PHI | STL | 154.1 | 4.90 | 4.55 | 1.37 | 30.0% | 13.40% | 6.5% | 1.17 | 1.23 |
| Smyly | TBR | TOR | 125.1 | 3.66 | 3.82 | 1.29 | 50.0% | 20.70% | 7.1% | 1.08 | 0.86 |
| Stroman | TOR | TBR | 87.0 | 3.83 | 3.43 | 1.17 | 66.7% | 20.40% | 5.9% | 0.52 | 1.65 |
| Hernandez | SEA | BOS | 185.1 | 1.99 | 2.40 | 0.87 | 81.0% | 27.80% | 4.5% | 0.39 | 2.16 |
| Kelly | BOS | SEA | 52.0 | 4.67 | 4.50 | 1.52 | 40.0% | 14.70% | 10.0% | 0.87 | 2.10 |
| Minor | ATL | CIN | 111.2 | 5.16 | 3.76 | 1.53 | 50.0% | 20.30% | 6.4% | 1.61 | 1.05 |
| Latos | CIN | ATL | 78.1 | 3.10 | 4.22 | 1.02 | 66.7% | 17.20% | 6.7% | 0.57 | 0.91 |
| Ventura | KCR | TEX | 139.2 | 3.48 | 3.88 | 1.31 | 44.4% | 19.90% | 8.4% | 0.84 | 1.51 |
| Lewis | TEX | KCR | 122.1 | 5.52 | 4.16 | 1.66 | 11.8% | 18.30% | 6.9% | 1.10 | 0.79 |
| Locke | PIT | MIL | 91.2 | 3.73 | 3.76 | 1.22 | 66.7% | 16.70% | 5.0% | 1.08 | 1.71 |
| Gallardo | MIL | PIT | 154.2 | 3.32 | 3.65 | 1.22 | 50.0% | 18.40% | 6.2% | 0.87 | 1.83 |
| Ray | DET | MIN | 25.1 | 5.33 | 4.98 | 1.66 | 33.3% | 13.00% | 8.7% | 0.36 | 0.94 |
| Milone | MIN | DET | 103.2 | 3.99 | 4.52 | 1.29 | 43.8% | 15.10% | 7.0% | 1.22 | 0.93 |
| Alvarez | MIA | COL | 144.2 | 2.43 | 3.65 | 1.20 | 50.0% | 15.10% | 4.7% | 0.50 | 2.33 |
| Morales | COL | MIA | 114.1 | 5.04 | 4.75 | 1.57 | 15.4% | 14.80% | 10.1% | 1.65 | 1.29 |
| Despaigne | SDP | ARI | 60.1 | 3.28 | 4.65 | 1.28 | 100.0% | 14.50% | 9.0% | 0.60 | 1.41 |
| Collmenter | ARI | SDP | 129.1 | 4.31 | 4.29 | 1.30 | 29.4% | 16.10% | 6.3% | 1.18 | 0.91 |
| Santiago | LAA | OAK | 96.1 | 3.46 | 4.28 | 1.21 | 16.7% | 20.70% | 9.2% | 0.84 | 0.56 |
| Gray | OAK | LAA | 162.2 | 2.99 | 3.61 | 1.22 | 60.0% | 20.30% | 8.4% | 0.50 | 2.19 |
| Niese | NYM | LAD | 141.1 | 3.50 | 3.92 | 1.28 | 41.2% | 17.10% | 6.5% | 0.89 | 1.65 |
| Haren | LAD | NYM | 143.0 | 4.59 | 3.90 | 1.31 | 30.0% | 17.70% | 5.2% | 1.51 | 1.16 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
PLATINUM BUYS:
These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.
Felix Hernandez SEA (at BOS)
Adam Wainwright STL (at PHI)
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Doug Fister WAS (v. SF) – I think he’s really close to a Platinum Buy (2.20 ERA, 1.05 WHIP), but that area is reserved for the guys who can regularly drop those huge scores which often requires a strikeout component that Fister just hasn’t had this year. That said, Fister’s gone at least seven in each of his last five starts, allowing 0 ER in four of them and just 2 ER in the other. That’s good for a 0.51 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 35.3 IP with 25 Ks and a 6.3 K:BB ratio. Isolating those five alone kind of sells him short, though. He’s been pitching brilliantly since getting roughed up in his season debut at OAK (4.3 IP/5 ER). He has a 1.89 ERA in 114.3 IP the 17 starts since that shaky opener.
Mat Latos CIN (v. ATL) – I feel like Latos’ season is going to hit its peak right around the time the regular season is over, but he’s been mostly great this year allowing more than 3 ER just twice in his 12 starts. His strikeouts lagged early on, but they have been more Latos-like in his last five with at least 5 Ks in each and a total of 28 in 32.7 IP (7.7 K9). He sat at 8.0 each of the last two years. The Braves are a great team to face if you’re looking to pump your strikeouts a bit. Their 44 games of 10+ Ks are the second-most in the league behind Miami and Houston tied at 49.
Sonny Gray OAK (v. LAA) – Gray’s mid-7.0s K9 is about the minimum I’d need for a Platinum Buy and while he pairs that with an appetizing sub-3.00 ERA, he didn’t make the cut for this matchup because he hasn’t been as sharp of late and the Angels are really tough on pitchers. He’s got a 6.48 ERA in his last three with two real duds and some walk issues (4.3 BB9). Mind you, we aren’t overreacting to the cold streak as he still remains a top option, even with a tough matchup. Prior to this little bump in the road, he’d allowed 5 ER in six starts, good for a 1.07 ERA in 42 IP.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Yordano Ventura KC (at TEX) – Ventura is looking more like the electric arm we saw earlier this season. His results have been strong throughout the season, but he went through a 10-start down period where he fanned more than five in an outing just once (six v. SEA). That streak ended with a 0-K showing against Boston, but he’s emerged with 31 Ks in 32 IP over his last five starts. He’s also got a 3.09 ERA and 1.25 WHIP during that run. A trip to Texas isn’t nearly as scary as in past years, either.
Drew Smyly TB (at TOR) – Smyly has been sharp in three starts as a Ray with a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 20 IP with 19 Ks. He has shown marked improvements against righties thanks a nearly unhittable curveball. He allowed an .889 OPS to righties with the Tigers, but it’s down to .682 so far with the Rays as righties are 0-for-11 off of that curve. And he’s turned the heat up on lefties, lowering his OPS against from .472 with the Tigers to just .318 in these last three since the trade.
Marcus Stroman TOR (v. TB) – I’m not jumping off of the bandwagon because of one horrific outing. I mean, even addressing the fact that it’s two ugly outings in his three, the third of those was a nine-inning, two-run effort against Detroit (game went 10). Even with the recent struggles (10 ER in 3.7 IP in those two starts), he still has a 3.12 ERA in 14 starts with a 1.09 WHIP and 3.5 K:BB ratio.
Shane Greene NYY (v. CWS) – Greene has really impressed this year, albeit in a limited sample. His last two outings have really made everyone start to take notice as he’s allowed just two runs in 14 innings with 15 strikeouts in big starts against Detroit and Tampa Bay. He’s got some real stuff with a mid-90s heater, high-80s cutter, and a slider that he drops down into the low-to-mid 80s. I’ve been really impressed with the short sample I’ve seen and I’m eager to see if he can maintain it, but I’m willing to bet on him.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Carlos Carrasco CLE (v. HOU) – I’ve bought in on Carrasco a few hundred times before over these last several years so maybe I should learn, but he’s been great in these last two starts with 12 shutout innings and an impressive 9/0 K:BB ratio. The team is a heavy factor here, of course. Carrasco has always been adept at missing bats and the Astros seemingly love to strikeout. Even if he doesn’t post another big scoreless outing, his strikeout upside could lead to a big night.
Jonathon Niese NYM (at LAD) – In terms of value, I see Niese as a lefty Fister-lite. His ratios are solid (whereas’ Fister’s are great), he doesn’t walk anybody, he keeps the ball down, and he doesn’t miss many bats. I recommended his last time against the Dodgers back on May 22nd (look it up!) and he delivered a solid 7 IP/3 ER with 5 Ks and even got the win. That’s about the high end of my expectations, but with his price tier, that’s more than enough.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
•Colby Lewis TEX (v. KC)
•John Danks CWS (at NYY)
•Franklin Morales COL (v. MIA)
•Robbie Ray DET (at MIN) – The Twins’ struggles against lefties might make Ray look like a value play, but he’s failed to take advantage of PIT (26th in wOBA v. LHP) and SEA (29th) in his last two starts.
•Joe Kelly BOS (v. SEA)
•Odrisamer Despaigne SD (at ARI)
•Brad Peacock HOU (at CLE)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gausman | 0.330 | 2.84 | 0.280 | 5.02 | 0.230 | 0.659 | 0.305 | 3.59 | 0.260 | 97.46 | 15.6% |
| Arrieta | 0.276 | 2.60 | 0.222 | 2.62 | 0.257 | 0.724 | 0.277 | 2.32 | 0.206 | 95.74 | 26.2% |
| Danks | 0.313 | 3.23 | 0.371 | 5.53 | 0.261 | 0.714 | 0.294 | 5.08 | 0.272 | 104.72 | 14.7% |
| Greene | 0.290 | 2.49 | 0.275 | 3.50 | 0.256 | 0.723 | 0.290 | 3.41 | 0.235 | 89.13 | 21.3% |
| Peacock | 0.361 | 5.34 | 0.368 | 5.63 | 0.260 | 0.744 | 0.321 | 5.11 | 0.277 | 83.45 | 19.3% |
| Carrasco | 0.279 | 3.19 | 0.254 | 3.35 | 0.233 | 0.680 | 0.276 | 2.96 | 0.220 | 36.38 | 23.1% |
| Hudson | 0.337 | 3.63 | 0.261 | 2.40 | 0.244 | 0.697 | 0.290 | 3.45 | 0.257 | 92.42 | 15.0% |
| Fister | 0.290 | 1.89 | 0.271 | 2.48 | 0.244 | 0.677 | 0.267 | 3.55 | 0.242 | 98.78 | 15.5% |
| Wainwright | 0.275 | 2.37 | 0.243 | 2.43 | 0.242 | 0.660 | 0.267 | 2.76 | 0.215 | 101.84 | 20.5% |
| Kendrick | 0.364 | 6.06 | 0.319 | 4.11 | 0.254 | 0.687 | 0.288 | 4.65 | 0.269 | 97.00 | 13.4% |
| Smyly | 0.200 | 2.40 | 0.374 | 4.29 | 0.246 | 0.700 | 0.306 | 3.88 | 0.259 | 92.00 | 20.7% |
| Stroman | 0.293 | 3.64 | 0.280 | 4.05 | 0.247 | 0.685 | 0.297 | 3.03 | 0.243 | 75.89 | 20.4% |
| Hernandez | 0.226 | 1.12 | 0.239 | 3.11 | 0.244 | 0.680 | 0.261 | 2.15 | 0.193 | 102.15 | 27.8% |
| Kelly | 0.370 | 4.10 | 0.312 | 5.26 | 0.246 | 0.695 | 0.307 | 4.58 | 0.273 | 89.30 | 14.7% |
| Minor | 0.421 | 6.33 | 0.361 | 4.88 | 0.247 | 0.699 | 0.348 | 4.60 | 0.300 | 100.05 | 20.3% |
| Latos | 0.232 | 2.33 | 0.285 | 3.86 | 0.242 | 0.668 | 0.233 | 3.47 | 0.203 | 96.33 | 17.2% |
| Ventura | 0.303 | 3.09 | 0.311 | 4.07 | 0.252 | 0.676 | 0.289 | 3.76 | 0.243 | 94.75 | 19.9% |
| Lewis | 0.413 | 6.03 | 0.333 | 4.98 | 0.263 | 0.689 | 0.373 | 4.18 | 0.317 | 96.23 | 18.3% |
| Locke | 0.218 | 3.63 | 0.339 | 3.76 | 0.241 | 0.704 | 0.291 | 4.01 | 0.261 | 94.36 | 16.7% |
| Gallardo | 0.272 | 2.37 | 0.315 | 4.07 | 0.260 | 0.741 | 0.286 | 3.73 | 0.247 | 100.32 | 18.4% |
| Ray | 0.375 | 4.50 | 0.245 | 0.671 | 0.348 | 3.65 | 0.305 | 77.50 | 13.0% | ||
| Milone | 0.336 | 4.05 | 0.319 | 3.98 | 0.280 | 0.780 | 0.272 | 4.64 | 0.252 | 90.61 | 15.1% |
| Alvarez | 0.279 | 2.04 | 0.320 | 2.95 | 0.276 | 0.762 | 0.299 | 3.31 | 0.262 | 86.83 | 15.1% |
| Morales | 0.299 | 4.67 | 0.403 | 5.20 | 0.263 | 0.701 | 0.297 | 5.69 | 0.280 | 68.25 | 14.8% |
| Despaigne | 0.353 | 3.25 | 0.253 | 3.31 | 0.250 | 0.686 | 0.269 | 4.16 | 0.238 | 97.00 | 14.5% |
| Collmenter | 0.368 | 4.14 | 0.298 | 4.46 | 0.230 | 0.643 | 0.291 | 4.31 | 0.265 | 78.85 | 16.1% |
| Santiago | 0.254 | 2.45 | 0.295 | 3.90 | 0.239 | 0.701 | 0.264 | 3.87 | 0.222 | 76.27 | 20.7% |
| Gray | 0.281 | 2.56 | 0.280 | 3.53 | 0.254 | 0.716 | 0.283 | 3.30 | 0.230 | 100.72 | 20.3% |
| Niese | 0.300 | 3.96 | 0.327 | 3.34 | 0.236 | 0.683 | 0.295 | 3.96 | 0.258 | 92.22 | 17.1% |
| Haren | 0.312 | 3.76 | 0.361 | 5.38 | 0.234 | 0.664 | 0.295 | 4.51 | 0.269 | 97.76 | 17.7% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window