Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 27th

by PSporer Last Updated 2014-09-02 23:18:32

The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Wainwright	STL	PIT	182	2.52	3.62	1.04	84.2%	20.0%	6.1%	0.30	1.44
Locke	PIT	STL	97.2	3.69	4.05	1.23	66.7%	15.7%	6.2%	1.11	1.63
Lewis	TEX	SEA	128.1	5.54	4.18	1.63	11.8%	17.9%	6.6%	1.19	0.79
Ramirez	SEA	TEX	64.1	4.06	4.53	1.49	27.3%	19.0%	11.3%	1.40	0.96
Smyly	TBR	BAL	134.1	3.42	3.82	1.22	50.0%	20.4%	6.7%	1.00	0.86
Gausman	BAL	TBR	78	3.81	4.43	1.37	37.5%	16.8%	8.8%	0.58	1.18
Fister	WAS	PHI	124.2	2.38	3.82	1.07	58.3%	15.3%	3.0%	0.94	1.41
Kendrick	PHI	WAS	160.2	4.93	4.54	1.38	30.0%	13.5%	6.4%	1.18	1.20
Kelly	BOS	TOR	57	4.26	4.45	1.46	40.0%	15.6%	10.4%	0.79	2.11
Stroman	TOR	BOS	92	4.11	3.47	1.25	66.7%	20.5%	6.2%	0.59	1.63
Greene	NYY	DET	48.1	3.17	3.32	1.32	100.0%	22.1%	7.7%	0.74	2.34
Price	DET	NYY	201.1	3.00	2.65	1.00	52.4%	27.5%	3.6%	1.03	1.06
Teheran	ATL	NYM	182.2	2.96	3.64	1.08	70.0%	21.3%	5.6%	0.94	0.78
Wheeler	NYM	ATL	152.2	3.48	3.66	1.32	55.0%	22.8%	10.0%	0.65	1.90
Turner	CHC	CIN	82.2	5.77	3.95	1.60	22.2%	15.0%	6.3%	0.87	1.80
Leake	CIN	CHC	179.1	3.51	3.44	1.24	45.0%	18.6%	5.6%	0.85	2.10
Kluber	CLE	CWS	186.1	2.46	2.74	1.08	57.1%	27.4%	5.6%	0.53	1.55
Noesi	CWS	CLE	133.1	4.86	4.35	1.41	26.7%	17.3%	8.1%	1.42	0.90
Hughes	MIN	KCR	165	3.65	3.18	1.19	45.0%	21.9%	2.2%	0.65	0.93
Hendriks	KCR	MIN	13.1	6.08	4.85	1.20	33.3%	14.0%	7.0%	2.03	0.68
Pomeranz	OAK	HOU	55.2	2.91	3.93	1.24	25.0%	21.1%	10.1%	1.13	1.35
Peacock	HOU	OAK	107	5.30	4.48	1.58	28.6%	19.5%	11.5%	1.43	0.93
Kershaw	LAD	ARI	153.1	1.82	1.99	0.83	66.7%	32.2%	3.7%	0.47	1.90
Miley	ARI	LAD	170	4.29	3.57	1.32	33.3%	21.8%	8.0%	1.16	1.71
Alvarez	MIA	LAA	150.2	2.57	3.61	1.22	50.0%	15.2%	4.5%	0.60	2.30
Santiago	LAA	MIA	101.1	3.38	4.26	1.24	16.7%	20.8%	9.2%	0.89	0.56
Gallardo	MIL	SDP	159.2	3.38	3.68	1.25	50.0%	18.3%	6.4%	0.90	1.84
Despaigne	SDP	MIL	65.1	3.44	4.50	1.27	100.0%	14.8%	8.6%	0.69	1.56
Morales	COL	SFG	118.1	5.32	4.73	1.61	15.4%	14.9%	10.1%	1.60	1.29
Hudson	SFG	COL	159.2	2.99	3.67	1.18	68.4%	15.0%	4.3%	0.68	2.11

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.

PLATINUM BUYS:

These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.

corey-kluber-300x200
Clayton Kershaw LAD (at ARI)
Corey Kluber CLE (at CWS)
David Price DET (v. NYY)
Julio Teheran ATL (at NYM)
Doug Fister WAS (at PHI)

GOLD BUYS:

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.

Phil Hughes MIN (at KC) –
Mat Latos CIN (v. CHC) –
Zack Wheeler NYM (v. ATL) –
Yovani Gallardo MIL (at SD) –
Yordano Ventura KC (v. MIN) –

SILVER BUYS:

On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.

Drew Smyly TB (at BAL) – The curveball and slider has been nearly unhittable against righties since arriving in Tampa Bay and that has spurred his run with them in four starts. He’s posted a 1.55 ERA and 0.76 WHIP thanks to those improvements against righties while turning up the heat on lefties from a .472 OPS against with DET to .280 with TB. I can’t quite slot him in the Gold tier for this start because a trip to Baltimore can be problematic, especially for someone who struggled with homers at times this year.

Shane Greene NYY (at DET) – I didn’t really get a chance to sit down and watch Greene until his sixth MLB start. I came away quite impressed as he looked a lot more like a real prospect as opposed to Chase Whitley 2.0 (who has an MLB future, but not necessarily in the rotation, let alone as a mid-rotation arm). Greene keeps the ball down as well as anyone with real, live stuff. He has a 54% groundball rate and his ability to keep the ball down has also helped him miss bats at a 22% clip.

Wade Miley ARI (v. LAD) – That 10 ER nightmare might still be in the minds of some (August 5th v. KC), but he’s been much better since then with a 1.83 ERA in three starts. It’s worth noting that he has a 1.32 WHIP in those three starts because he allowed 14 base runners in Washington yet came away with 6.7 scoreless innings. He’s not reliable enough to trust in all-formats against all opponents, but he’s a useful spot start option against weaker opponents. He’s been a mixed bag against LAD (1 good, 1 OK, 1 blah, 1 bad) in four starts, but they have languished near the bottom of the OPS ranks against lefties for most of the season (currently 23rd).

VALUE PLAYS:

These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.

Kevin Gausman BAL (v. TB) – Gausman hasn’t been great, but he’s done more than enough to be a useful value play. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his last six starts, but he’s not much of a strikeout force and has just a 1.6 K:BB ratio, but he still has strong upside even in 5ish-inning outings.
Hector Santiago LAA (v. MIA) – Santiago has really been sharp since rejoining the rotation. He’s mixed in a few relief appearances, but he’s amassed a 2.53 ERA in 64 innings (11 starts, 3 relief apps.) with 57 Ks and a 2.7 K:BB ratio. I expected more of that than the 4.82 he had in his first 37.3 IP. Miami’s 23.8% K rate against righties is the highest in baseball.

STAYAWAYS:

These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.

Hector Noesi CWS (v. CLE) – Pitching much better of late, but CLE rips righties too much to test him out.
Odrisamer Despaigne SD (v. MIL) – The weak component numbers are catching up to him.
Franklin Morales COL (at SF)
Brad Peacock HOU (v. OAK)

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Wainwright	0.274	2.58	0.245	2.48	0.261	0.745	0.268	2.79	0.217	101.96	20.0%
Locke	0.218	3.63	0.337	3.70	0.254	0.720	0.278	4.27	0.254	94.13	15.7%
Lewis	0.406	5.79	0.342	5.29	0.246	0.695	0.365	4.32	0.314	96.48	17.9%
Ramirez	0.340	4.10	0.355	4.00	0.251	0.674	0.293	5.15	0.258	85.92	19.0%
Smyly	0.196	2.34	0.355	3.91	0.262	0.752	0.292	3.77	0.249	92.52	20.4%
Gausman	0.331	2.98	0.293	5.16	0.248	0.689	0.307	3.71	0.262	97.71	16.8%
Fister	0.299	2.26	0.271	2.49	0.241	0.658	0.267	3.71	0.244	99.21	15.3%
Kendrick	0.370	6.06	0.315	4.15	0.244	0.696	0.290	4.64	0.27	96.96	13.5%
Kelly	0.354	3.60	0.304	5.00	0.268	0.764	0.295	4.48	0.259	89.18	15.6%
Stroman	0.296	3.62	0.305	4.68	0.242	0.676	0.310	3.14	0.253	77.20	20.5%
Greene	0.311	2.30	0.295	4.29	0.269	0.739	0.319	3.55	0.255	89.44	22.1%
Price	0.292	3.54	0.271	2.82	0.261	0.713	0.285	2.93	0.225	111.04	27.5%
Teheran	0.295	3.48	0.269	2.41	0.235	0.665	0.268	3.52	0.227	100.04	21.3%
Wheeler	0.341	4.54	0.269	2.55	0.241	0.666	0.302	3.55	0.238	102.73	22.8%
Turner	0.344	5.35	0.382	6.08	0.240	0.664	0.361	3.93	0.318	59.77	15.0%
Leake	0.356	4.11	0.282	3.07	0.230	0.661	0.299	3.67	0.256	99.26	18.6%
Kluber	0.311	2.63	0.233	2.29	0.256	0.723	0.305	2.47	0.227	102.78	27.4%
Noesi	0.307	4.30	0.376	5.59	0.259	0.741	0.293	4.78	0.266	80.56	17.3%
Hughes	0.282	2.74	0.328	4.72	0.263	0.690	0.339	2.61	0.275	94.81	21.9%
Hendriks					0.251	0.721	0.225	6.21	0.235	73.67	14.0%
Pomeranz	0.347	1.64	0.280	3.22	0.268	0.756	0.260	4.28	0.224	55.24	21.1%
Peacock	0.352	5.07	0.366	5.59	0.254	0.730	0.313	5.06	0.271	82.52	19.5%
Kershaw	0.163	0.31	0.247	2.17	0.250	0.691	0.274	1.84	0.193	99.19	32.2%
Miley	0.328	5.11	0.323	4.06	0.239	0.688	0.301	4.06	0.253	99.70	21.8%
Alvarez	0.287	2.40	0.322	2.80	0.254	0.716	0.303	3.40	0.266	87.21	15.2%
Santiago	0.249	2.37	0.307	3.80	0.267	0.710	0.271	3.92	0.228	77.22	20.8%
Gallardo	0.270	2.41	0.326	4.16	0.229	0.639	0.290	3.79	0.251	100.27	18.3%
Despaigne	0.351	3.48	0.253	3.41	0.259	0.731	0.266	4.20	0.237	95.82	14.8%
Morales	0.299	4.84	0.405	5.53	0.253	0.707	0.306	5.58	0.285	69.00	14.9%
Hudson	0.334	3.50	0.264	2.44	0.277	0.766	0.289	3.50	0.257	92.52	15.0%

Starting Pitcher Salaries

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

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