Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 21st
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vogelsong | SFG | PHI | 103.1 | 3.92 | 3.84 | 1.30 | 52.6% | 20.6% | 7.3% | 0.61 | 0.99 |
| Lee | PHI | SFG | 68.0 | 3.18 | 3.09 | 1.28 | 60.0% | 21.1% | 3.1% | 0.66 | 1.65 |
| Mikolas | TEX | NYY | 8.2 | 12.46 | 3.47 | 2.07 | 0.0% | 21.4% | 4.8% | 2.08 | 0.92 |
| Greene | NYY | TEX | 6.1 | 2.84 | 5.14 | 1.15 | 100.0% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 1.42 | 1.71 |
| Ryu | LAD | PIT | 98.2 | 3.65 | 3.58 | 1.29 | 61.1% | 19.8% | 5.0% | 0.64 | 1.28 |
| Volquez | PIT | LAD | 102.0 | 3.88 | 4.36 | 1.24 | 50.0% | 15.9% | 8.2% | 1.06 | 1.41 |
| Lackey | BOS | TOR | 117.1 | 3.84 | 3.25 | 1.25 | 57.9% | 21.6% | 4.7% | 1.00 | 1.52 |
| Hutchison | TOR | BOS | 105.0 | 3.86 | 3.86 | 1.26 | 31.6% | 21.0% | 7.5% | 0.94 | 0.85 |
| Koehler | MIA | ATL | 106.1 | 3.98 | 4.25 | 1.25 | 52.6% | 18.8% | 9.2% | 0.85 | 1.11 |
| Teheran | ATL | MIA | 129.1 | 2.57 | 3.60 | 1.03 | 70.0% | 21.4% | 5.5% | 0.84 | 0.82 |
| Latos | CIN | MIL | 33.2 | 2.41 | 4.28 | 0.78 | 66.7% | 14.4% | 4.0% | 0.27 | 0.95 |
| Peralta | MIL | CIN | 111.2 | 3.95 | 3.69 | 1.35 | 47.4% | 17.6% | 6.5% | 1.21 | 2.05 |
| Guthrie | KCR | CWS | 116.1 | 4.02 | 4.39 | 1.29 | 42.1% | 14.8% | 5.9% | 1.32 | 1.04 |
| Sale | CWS | KCR | 87.1 | 2.16 | 2.61 | 0.87 | 64.3% | 28.8% | 4.8% | 0.62 | 1.17 |
| House | CLE | MIN | 40.1 | 4.24 | 3.33 | 1.47 | 25.0% | 14.4% | 5.2% | 1.34 | 3.61 |
| Johnson | MIN | CLE | 4.1 | 0.00 | 6.63 | 2.44 | 0.0% | 22.7% | 27.3% | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| Fister | WAS | COL | 70.2 | 2.93 | 3.88 | 1.05 | 58.3% | 14.7% | 2.1% | 1.15 | 1.30 |
| Morales | COL | WAS | 87.1 | 5.26 | 4.49 | 1.53 | 15.4% | 16.0% | 9.3% | 1.85 | 1.30 |
| Verlander | DET | ARI | 122.2 | 4.84 | 4.38 | 1.48 | 35.0% | 17.2% | 8.3% | 0.88 | 1.01 |
| Nuno | ARI | DET | 85.0 | 4.98 | 4.17 | 1.36 | 18.8% | 18.4% | 7.4% | 1.59 | 0.84 |
| Norris | BAL | LAA | 87.0 | 3.62 | 4.34 | 1.16 | 26.7% | 16.9% | 7.9% | 1.03 | 1.09 |
| Shoemaker | LAA | BAL | 63.2 | 4.38 | 3.28 | 1.34 | 44.4% | 23.0% | 5.6% | 1.27 | 1.07 |
| Niese | NYM | SEA | 103.1 | 2.96 | 3.95 | 1.21 | 41.2% | 17.3% | 6.5% | 0.70 | 1.56 |
| Elias | SEA | NYM | 109.2 | 4.19 | 3.87 | 1.22 | 26.3% | 20.5% | 8.2% | 1.15 | 1.28 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Julio Teheran ATL (v. MIA) – Hopefully the extended rest did the youngster some good. His last two starts before the break were a little rough (7.84 ERA in 10.3 IP), but I’m not worried. He is well off of his ridiculous 1.47 ERA pace from April, but the guy he has been since May 1st is still very good – 3.28 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 90 Ks in 93.3 IP. He has two big 7 IP outings against the Marlins, both back when they were actually playing quite well. Teheran will come cheaper than Sale and even Lee at some spots today making him something of an ace bargain.
Chris Sale CWS (v. KC) – Since becoming a starter, Sale has a 2.32 ERA in 11 starts against KC with a 4.9 K:BB ratio in 77.7 IP. He really does just keep getting better and obviously that is reflected in his cost. He is going to be the most costly arm at just about every site and that makes sense, but it’s also why he’s ranked just second today. He is better than Teheran in pure talent, but Teheran can definitely replicate Sale’s numbers and he can do so at a significant discount, particularly at DraftKings where they are split by $2,700. If you’re looking for certainty (or the closest thing to certainty that this game allows), then you’ll want to pay the premium for Sale as he has allowed more than 3 ER just once and he’s gone fewer than 6 IP just twice, including once because of rain.
Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD (at PIT) – When Ryu is bad, it can be really bad. He has three 5+ ER outings this year, including a 2.3 IP/7 ER nightmare in Detroit on July 8th, but he always bounces back brilliantly. He was fortunate enough to get San Diego on the schedule after the Detroit outing and he didn’t waste the opportunity with six scoreless and 10 strikeouts en route to his 10th win. Ryu has gone at least 6 IP in all but four outings (the three duds and a 5 IP/0 ER effort in Australia) and he’s been a bit of a strikeout force since returning from the DL in late-May with 62 in 65.7 IP.
Mat Latos CIN (at MIL) – The ratios are there and I expect the component numbers to follow very soon. Through six starts he has some weird numbers (absurdly low BABIP, K, and GB rates), but the results have been sharp. I expect the results stay, but it will be because those numbers will start to even out. The BABIP will go up (.188 right now), but so will his strikeout rate. I expect a few more walks, but also many more groundballs.
Jon Niese NYM (at SEA) – He’d be a value play, but that’s almost an insult for his talents as I’m not using him just because of matchup and/or price. His groundball-control profile isn’t highly valued in the market despite continued strong results. While he doesn’t strikeout many, he has plenty of success both home and away and against any level of competition. He hit the DL after his last outing, but the All-Star break ensured very little missed time and he’s been cleared for Seattle. The M’s are enjoying a strong season, but they haven’t figured out lefties with a .285 wOBA so far this year, second-worst in baseball.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Cliff Lee PHI (v. SF) – We haven’t seen Lee since May 18th and while some don’t like to mess with guys freshly off the DL, I don’t share that same caution, especially with stars. Lee rebounded from a horrid 5 IP/8 ER Opening Day to get his ERA to 3.18 before hitting the DL and actually 14 of his 24 ER (58%) have come in two starts giving him a 2.22 ERA in his other eight. As bad as the Phillies have been offensively the last month (well, actually the entire year), the Giants haven’t really been any better, either. Lee likely won’t get much run support, but this is a nice spot to make your return after two months off.
John Lackey BOS (at TOR) – Lackey sputtered to the break with an 8.10 ERA in his last four starts, but he still fanned 19 in the 20 IP despite the poor numbers elsewhere. He has done a fantastic job following up his surprise 2013, but I think he gets overlooked on the daily landscape, especially with Boston struggling. He’s not really a glamorous pick, nor is he particularly cheap, but he’s been mostly good this year and carries big strikeout potential.
Wily Peralta MIL (v. CIN) – I thought we’d see more strikeouts from Peralta, but it’s hard to argue with the production beyond that. He had avoided the real disaster through his first 17 starts before Philly dumped him for 9 ER in 4.3 IP, but he bounced back with seven strong innings against St. Louis during which he allowed just one unearned run. Perhaps he plays up to his competition with a 1.75 ERA against .500 or better teams in seven starts (4.98 against sub-.500 clubs) which would bode well against a 51-44 Cincy ballclub, against whom he threw eight scoreless with seven strikeouts earlier this year.
Ryan Vogelsong SF (at PHI) – He’s just been really solid after a rough start. He had a 7.71 ERA through his first four starts, but he’s been a 3.18 ERA pitcher in his 15 starts since April 27th. His strikeout and walk rates are at career-bests yielding an impressive comeback season after last year’s disaster. The Phillies are a mess offensively and their .284 wOBA is second-worst in baseball against righties and it’s been at .269 in the last month.
Justin Verlander DET (at ARI) – I watch him and I don’t see him off as much as he was last year, yet the results are actually worse. The stuff is still strong, but he has obviously lost that all-world command from a few years ago when he was winning every award in sight. It’s price-dependent with Verlander at this point. At the sites that have priced him commensurate with his 2014 ERA, he is a buy-low stock worthy of a look. The upside is still substantial and if he’s coming at SP2 costs, it’s tough to pass up.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Edinson Volquez PIT (v. LAD) – Volquez has been unreal of late. He has a 0.90 ERA in his last four starts spanning 30 IP, not allowing more than 1 ER in any of the outings. He closed the first half with a complete game in St. Louis, allowing one run on eight base runners. His strikeouts are way down, but so are his walks (career-best 8% BB rate) and he’s been a groundball machine, playing into Pittsburgh’s strategy and they’ve rewarded him with a .254 BABIP. The Dodgers are wallowing against righties of late with a .313 SLG in the last month, good for 27th in the league.
Shane Greene NYY (v. TEX) – Hmm, do we trust Chase Whitley 2.0? Is he just Whitley 2.0? It’s too early to say, but his first two starts have been impressive. He makes his Yankee Stadium debut tonight against a hobbled Rangers club, which will actually be his easiest opponent of the year so far. He’s still a bit of a mystery, which adds to the risk, but if you want to ride a hot hand…
Tom Koehler MIA (at ATL) – Koehler has had an interesting season. He had a 3.18 ERA through his first 11 starts, but just a 1.6 K:BB ratio and 45 strikeouts. He has a 5.24 ERA in his last eight starts (44.7 IP), but with a 2.5 K:BB ratio and 43 strikeouts. The skills of late fit his early ERA much better. In fact, he has high-3.00 FIPs in each of the last months are mid-4.00s in the first two. Koehler has been solid against the Braves in two starts so far this season.
Matt Shoemaker LAA (v. BAL) – Shoemaker’s worst night of the season has marred his numbers thus far making him look much worse than he has been. In fact, aside from his brutal 4 IP/8 ER effort in KC, he has a 3.47 ERA in 59.7 IP. I’m intrigued by his skills because if the strikeouts are real, he can be a solid arm capable of some nice daily value, especially while that KC start inflates his ERA.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Drew Hutchison TOR (v. BOS)
- Kris Johnson MIN (v. CLE)
- Miles Mikolas TEX (at NYY)
- Franklin Morales COL (v. WAS)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vogelsong | 0.333 | 4.50 | 0.361 | 5.15 | 0.235 | 0.646 | 1.300 | 3.39 | 0.133 | 95.39 | 61.5% |
| Lee | 0.241 | 2.53 | 0.299 | 3.08 | 0.253 | 0.733 | 1.280 | 2.67 | 0.180 | 106.70 | 68.7% |
| Mikolas | 0.432 | 11.25 | 0.366 | 9.95 | 0.250 | 0.693 | 1.960 | 4.73 | 0.167 | 82.50 | 66.7% |
| Greene | 0.312 | 3.60 | 0.138 | 0.256 | 0.690 | 1.110 | 6.12 | 0.000 | 55.50 | 57.7% | |
| Ryu | 0.315 | 3.53 | 0.294 | 3.13 | 0.253 | 0.686 | 1.290 | 3.02 | 0.148 | 95.29 | 65.6% |
| Volquez | 0.357 | 5.43 | 0.322 | 4.72 | 0.271 | 0.754 | 1.240 | 4.46 | 0.077 | 87.33 | 64.5% |
| Lackey | 0.296 | 3.36 | 0.330 | 4.01 | 0.266 | 0.768 | 1.240 | 3.34 | 0.169 | 102.06 | 68.6% |
| Hutchison | 0.330 | 4.61 | 0.295 | 3.04 | 0.239 | 0.670 | 1.260 | 3.73 | 0.135 | 95.72 | 64.0% |
| Koehler | 0.299 | 4.29 | 0.343 | 4.25 | 0.240 | 0.660 | 1.250 | 4.11 | 0.096 | 92.56 | 62.2% |
| Teheran | 0.318 | 3.84 | 0.269 | 2.18 | 0.254 | 0.706 | 1.030 | 3.34 | 0.160 | 98.74 | 66.0% |
| Latos | 0.297 | 3.22 | 0.279 | 2.96 | 0.263 | 0.732 | 0.770 | 2.88 | 0.104 | 95.20 | 65.5% |
| Peralta | 0.351 | 4.55 | 0.297 | 3.96 | 0.250 | 0.688 | 1.340 | 4.24 | 0.111 | 100.39 | 63.1% |
| Guthrie | 0.380 | 4.75 | 0.279 | 3.25 | 0.253 | 0.719 | 1.290 | 4.71 | 0.089 | 103.56 | 65.0% |
| Sale | 0.170 | 1.95 | 0.294 | 3.06 | 0.255 | 0.675 | 0.870 | 2.50 | 0.240 | 103.54 | 65.8% |
| House | 0.321 | 3.00 | 0.390 | 4.97 | 0.245 | 0.680 | 1.460 | 4.63 | 0.092 | 77.88 | 66.3% |
| Johnson | 0.258 | 3.18 | 0.388 | 5.00 | 0.244 | 0.663 | 2.310 | 4.96 | -0.046 | 106.00 | 55.7% |
| Fister | 0.310 | 3.77 | 0.312 | 3.17 | 0.280 | 0.775 | 1.050 | 3.96 | 0.126 | 96.82 | 67.1% |
| Morales | 0.300 | 4.79 | 0.398 | 5.35 | 0.284 | 0.757 | 1.520 | 5.78 | 0.067 | 65.68 | 62.8% |
| Verlander | 0.301 | 3.38 | 0.347 | 4.90 | 0.258 | 0.702 | 1.480 | 4.07 | 0.089 | 109.58 | 62.8% |
| Nuno | 0.300 | 4.50 | 0.347 | 4.46 | 0.284 | 0.799 | 1.360 | 4.86 | 0.110 | 77.33 | 64.5% |
| Norris | 0.365 | 5.09 | 0.291 | 2.85 | 0.257 | 0.730 | 1.160 | 4.51 | 0.090 | 101.93 | 64.0% |
| Shoemaker | 0.348 | 4.50 | 0.300 | 3.60 | 0.269 | 0.742 | 1.340 | 3.76 | 0.174 | 66.93 | 63.5% |
| Niese | 0.285 | 3.34 | 0.326 | 3.44 | 0.245 | 0.630 | 1.210 | 2.96 | 0.107 | 91.00 | 63.9% |
| Elias | 0.306 | 4.70 | 0.317 | 4.05 | 0.254 | 0.698 | 1.210 | 4.28 | 0.123 | 95.33 | 62.5% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window