Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 23rd
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bauer | CLE | MIN | 66 | 4.23 | 3.99 | 1.39 | 38.5% | 21.1% | 8.5% | 1.23 | 0.77 |
| Gibson | MIN | CLE | 95 | 4.17 | 4.36 | 1.25 | 52.6% | 12.6% | 7.1% | 0.57 | 1.90 |
| Shields | KCR | CWS | 123.2 | 3.71 | 3.59 | 1.29 | 42.9% | 19.3% | 5.1% | 1.09 | 1.44 |
| Quintana | CWS | KCR | 112.1 | 3.20 | 3.50 | 1.24 | 50.0% | 21.5% | 6.9% | 0.48 | 1.59 |
| Leake | CIN | MIL | 121 | 3.42 | 3.37 | 1.20 | 45.0% | 19.0% | 4.8% | 0.97 | 1.96 |
| Lohse | MIL | CIN | 119 | 3.18 | 3.86 | 1.10 | 50.0% | 17.8% | 4.7% | 0.83 | 1.11 |
| Strasburg | WAS | COL | 119.1 | 3.47 | 2.59 | 1.21 | 52.4% | 28.2% | 4.8% | 0.91 | 1.55 |
| De La Rosa | COL | WAS | 96.2 | 4.75 | 4.40 | 1.32 | 40.0% | 17.0% | 10.2% | 1.12 | 1.67 |
| Colon | NYM | SEA | 113.2 | 4.04 | 3.83 | 1.18 | 42.1% | 17.3% | 3.6% | 1.11 | 1.05 |
| Walker | SEA | NYM | 10 | 3.60 | 4.78 | 1.40 | 20.9% | 16.3% | 1.80 | 2.60 | |
| Sanchez | DET | ARI | 87.2 | 3.18 | 3.97 | 1.03 | 41.2% | 19.0% | 7.1% | 0.31 | 1.12 |
| Cahill | ARI | DET | 41.1 | 5.66 | 3.96 | 1.75 | 20.0% | 23.0% | 13.1% | 0.87 | 1.65 |
| Darvish | TEX | NYY | 109.1 | 2.63 | 3.00 | 1.19 | 55.6% | 29.8% | 8.7% | 0.66 | 0.80 |
| Phelps | NYY | TEX | 83 | 4.01 | 4.10 | 1.35 | 42.9% | 19.7% | 9.2% | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | PHI | 120.2 | 3.36 | 3.16 | 1.24 | 47.6% | 24.4% | 6.3% | 0.67 | 1.48 |
| Burnett | PHI | SFG | 124 | 3.92 | 4.10 | 1.34 | 38.1% | 19.1% | 9.9% | 0.65 | 1.79 |
| Haren | LAD | PIT | 108.2 | 4.06 | 3.79 | 1.25 | 30.0% | 16.9% | 4.2% | 1.49 | 1.38 |
| Liriano | PIT | LAD | 72.1 | 4.60 | 3.69 | 1.46 | 12.5% | 24.0% | 11.2% | 1.00 | 2.02 |
| Buchholz | BOS | TOR | 70.2 | 6.11 | 4.50 | 1.67 | 33.3% | 15.4% | 7.7% | 1.53 | 1.11 |
| Dickey | TOR | BOS | 119 | 3.86 | 4.20 | 1.32 | 47.6% | 19.2% | 9.1% | 1.21 | 1.12 |
| Eovaldi | MIA | ATL | 112.2 | 3.75 | 3.91 | 1.25 | 50.0% | 17.1% | 4.7% | 0.64 | 1.16 |
| Santana | ATL | MIA | 103 | 3.93 | 3.43 | 1.27 | 38.9% | 21.8% | 6.9% | 0.70 | 1.74 |
| Cobb | TBR | STL | 69.1 | 4.28 | 3.50 | 1.26 | 42.9% | 20.8% | 7.5% | 0.91 | 1.95 |
| Lynn | STL | TBR | 108 | 3.17 | 3.86 | 1.31 | 60.0% | 21.0% | 8.6% | 0.50 | 1.35 |
| Kennedy | SDP | CHC | 116.1 | 3.71 | 3.08 | 1.21 | 47.6% | 26.0% | 6.2% | 0.77 | 1.11 |
| Wada | CHC | SDP | |||||||||
| Tillman | BAL | LAA | 111.2 | 4.11 | 4.85 | 1.39 | 42.9% | 14.3% | 9.2% | 0.97 | 1.04 |
| Weaver | LAA | BAL | 118.1 | 3.50 | 4.05 | 1.14 | 52.4% | 19.3% | 6.9% | 1.22 | 0.76 |
| Peacock | HOU | OAK | 83.2 | 4.30 | 4.35 | 1.49 | 28.6% | 20.4% | 11.6% | 0.97 | 1.04 |
| Chavez | OAK | HOU | 109 | 3.06 | 3.60 | 1.26 | 52.6% | 22.1% | 7.4% | 0.74 | 1.29 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Yu Darvish TEX (at NYY) – It looks like the break served him well (though he was an All-Star, so it wasn’t a complete respite from baseball) as he had allowed 4+ ER in four of his final five before the break, but he opened the “second-half” by allowing just one run in 6.7 innings in Toronto with 12 strikeouts. He will be the most expensive arm on the board by a wide margin at most outlets, but the strikeout potential justifies the cost. With some appealing dirt-cheap options, anchoring your roster with someone like Darvish becomes much more appealing.
Jose Quintana CWS (v. KC) – Don’t let the 5-7 record fool you, Quintana has been fantastic this year. In fact, there is a case that his 3.26 ERA should be even better. He continues to improve his strikeout and walk rates (well, his walk rate has jumped 0.4% this year, but it’s still very good) and his groundball rate is back up at 47%, tying his career-best. The Royals got him the last time they saw him with a 6 IP/6 ER showing, but he had a 7.3 IP/3 ER start against them back in late-May. The Royals are 25th in OPS against lefties this year with a .674 mark.
Ian Kennedy SD (at CHC) – Kennedy has rejuvenated his career in San Diego and it isn’t just Petco-inflated. In fact, he’s done his best on the road with a 3.06 ERA in 64.7 innings (4.18 in 64.7 at home) and he gets the inept Cubs offense on Wednesday. The strikeout rate is way up on the season (25.6%, career-best) and his walk rate is back down to what it was when he was good. A big change this year has been a career-high 42% groundball rate. Home runs have always been a killer for him, but he has a 0.70 HR/9 and 7.8% HR/FB rate this year. The last time those were down that low was in 2011 when he has a 2.88 ERA. His HR rate was 0.77 and his HR/FB rate was 7.7%.
Lance Lynn STL (v. TB) – The Rays aren’t the pushover they were earlier this year, but they still aren’t a fear-inducing offense, especially for someone as good as Lynn. He can’t seem to avoid that occasional super-dud, but he always bounces back to his high-strikeout, 6+ inning outing ways.
Madison Bumgarner SF (at PHI) – I still think he’s an ace-quality arm, but the heavy hit rate has cut into his scores. He never allowed more than eight hits in a start last year, but he already has five 9+ hit games this year, including a pair of 10 spots. The .323 BABIP is a career-high, but not too far off of his .294 career mark to automatically assume it’s a rash of bad luck. Digging deeper, we learn that his line drive rate (20.2%) is up a bit, but so is his groundball rate (48.5%) and it’s his groundball BABIP in particular that is inflating his bottom line. His .279 BABIP on groundballs is way up from last year’s .185 and if you applied last year’s to this year’s groundball count, it would drop 17 hits off of his ledger. It looks like Bumgarner has been a bit unfortunate with his BABIP this year and it wouldn’t be a shock to see it improve the rest of the way.
Jered Weaver LAA (v. BAL) – Weaver is ace-level at home. There isn’t much more to it than that. He has a 2.70 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 2.8 K:BB ratio in 76.7 innings at home. He has a 4.45 ERA on the road with skills that portend an even higher mark. Baltimore has a good offense, but I think Weaver is a good bet to shut them down. And if people are scared off by the Orioles offense, then he’ll have the added bonus of being a scarce pick who could go off.
Jesse Chavez OAK (v. HOU) – He’s been a bit uneven of late, but when he is still showing those flashes of brilliance. Since that incredible April, he has a 3.76 ERA in 76.7 innings with 66 strikeouts which is perfectly credible. His price has dropped (just as it should given his change in results), but I think the drop in cost has outran his drop in production, creating a buying opportunity.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Anibal Sanchez DET (at ARI) – He was brilliant until the seventh inning of his last outing. He didn’t record an out and ended up being charged with four runs by the time it was done (the bullpen “helped” as Sanchez was lifted mid-inning). He’s still really good.
Kyle Lohse MIL (v. CIN) – He’s been the master of scattering hits lately because he’s allowed at least 7 in each of his last five outings (10.7 H/9), but he still has a 3.38 ERA in that time with a 4.3 K:BB ratio. He had a 2.60 ERA before that 8 ER disaster in Pittsburgh and he has a 2.93 ERA in his seven starts since then, too. He doesn’t really stand out as a stud, but he just keeps getting it done.
Trevor Bauer CLE (at MIN) – Bauer isn’t a finished product yet, but he’s taken great strides this year and he’s avoided the massive implosion. The walks are still very much there, but he’s missing plenty of bats and keeping the ball in the yard. The Twins offense has fallen off from their torrid April pace and they now sit 18th in OPS against righties at .689.
Francisco Liriano PIT (v. LAD) – Liriano was solid against the Rockies last week, but he lasted just five innings after running his pitch count to 95. The Dodgers give him a second straight opponent that struggles against lefties with a .670 OPS – 26th in baseball. With his big strikeout upside, he can still be plenty valuable in five or six innings.
Ervin Santana ATL (v. MIA) – Santana is back to being a matchups guy, but this is a good opponent for him. The Marlins have been awful of late and their 24% strikeout rate is just 0.1% off of Houston’s pace for baseball’s worst. Santana has 7+ Ks in six different outings this year, including 11 in an April 14th outing in Philly. Santana is more of a 6 IP/3 ER kind of guy now, but when you can get six or seven strikeouts with that he can still put up a nice score.
Alex Cobb TB (at STL) – Cobb has been better than his numbers suggest. He has allowed 51 percent of his earned runs in three starts, but he has a 2.41 ERA in his other 11 starts. Obviously that is some cherry-picking, but the point is that his poor work has been confined and his true talent level is better than a 4.08 ERA. The Cards may be leading their division (or tied, or a half game out… it’s close), but it’s not because of their offense. Their 370 runs are lowest in the NL Central. In fact, only the San Diego Padres have scored fewer (291).
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Bartolo Colon NYM (at SEA) – Colon has been bland lately, which is the worst thing you can get from a daily game pitcher. If you’re just about guaranteed 5-6 innings with 3-4 earned runs in four out of five outings, you don’t want anything to do with that guy even if he does hold a 3.80 ERA because of a gem or two. Prior to Colon’s last four starts, he was very boom/bust with three awful outings that really inflated his numbers surrounded by 12 great outings that spit out a 3.67 ERA. He’s got a 5.88 ERA in his last four, but his component numbers look healthy. I think this is just a blip.
David Phelps NYY (v. TEX) – He’s been pretty solid as a starter with a 3.87 ERA in 83.7 innings. His strikeouts are about league average and he could stand to walk fewer, but he’s a great low-dollar gamble. He has a 2.52 ERA in his last four with 19 strikeouts in 25 innings. This Triple-A Rangers offense is now one to pick on, regardless of venue.
Tsuyoshi Wada CHC (v. SD) – He’s facing the hero-makers. The 33-year old has been great in Triple-A, but he probably should be with his experience. He was solid in his MLB debut back on July 8th, giving up just an unearned run against the Reds in five innings with three strikeouts. He could double that strikeout total against the Padres. He’s striking out other minor league teams at a 9.5 K/9 clip.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Trevor Cahill ARI (v. DET)
- Chris Tillman BAL (at LAA)
- Brad Peacock HOU (at OAK)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bauer | 0.337 | 3.73 | 0.334 | 4.58 | 0.243 | 0.686 | 1.390 | 4.21 | 0.127 | 103.18 | 63.0% |
| Gibson | 0.347 | 4.90 | 0.304 | 5.05 | 0.259 | 0.739 | 1.250 | 3.80 | 0.055 | 88.47 | 61.1% |
| Shields | 0.301 | 3.29 | 0.325 | 3.51 | 0.253 | 0.719 | 1.290 | 3.89 | 0.142 | 106.26 | 63.7% |
| Quintana | 0.299 | 3.48 | 0.296 | 3.42 | 0.253 | 0.669 | 1.240 | 2.88 | 0.146 | 105.56 | 62.4% |
| Leake | 0.336 | 3.57 | 0.301 | 3.38 | 0.263 | 0.732 | 1.200 | 3.66 | 0.142 | 98.00 | 65.0% |
| Lohse | 0.304 | 3.49 | 0.295 | 3.10 | 0.250 | 0.688 | 1.100 | 3.56 | 0.131 | 99.56 | 66.2% |
| Strasburg | 0.285 | 3.53 | 0.286 | 3.06 | 0.280 | 0.775 | 1.210 | 2.78 | 0.233 | 98.37 | 67.3% |
| De La Rosa | 0.225 | 2.63 | 0.349 | 4.27 | 0.278 | 0.744 | 1.310 | 4.74 | 0.068 | 92.33 | 60.0% |
| Colon | 0.301 | 3.43 | 0.289 | 3.05 | 0.241 | 0.691 | 1.180 | 3.80 | 0.137 | 100.00 | 68.2% |
| Walker | 0.307 | 4.61 | 0.252 | 2.45 | 0.237 | 0.671 | 1.400 | 6.32 | 0.047 | 88.50 | 60.5% |
| Sanchez | 0.279 | 3.36 | 0.259 | 2.13 | 0.258 | 0.702 | 1.030 | 2.99 | 0.119 | 98.93 | 64.0% |
| Cahill | 0.361 | 4.63 | 0.316 | 4.20 | 0.276 | 0.769 | 1.740 | 4.13 | 0.1 | 40.95 | 57.1% |
| Darvish | 0.304 | 3.20 | 0.246 | 2.40 | 0.250 | 0.693 | 1.190 | 2.74 | 0.211 | 106.06 | 63.1% |
| Phelps | 0.322 | 3.81 | 0.341 | 5.28 | 0.256 | 0.690 | 1.350 | 4.38 | 0.106 | 67.43 | 61.1% |
| Bumgarner | 0.239 | 1.98 | 0.293 | 3.38 | 0.244 | 0.694 | 1.230 | 2.92 | 0.18 | 102.47 | 66.2% |
| Burnett | 0.345 | 4.66 | 0.264 | 2.84 | 0.240 | 0.670 | 1.340 | 3.89 | 0.092 | 104.21 | 60.7% |
| Haren | 0.321 | 5.27 | 0.351 | 3.89 | 0.259 | 0.718 | 1.240 | 4.40 | 0.127 | 100.44 | 64.2% |
| Liriano | 0.231 | 2.63 | 0.310 | 3.79 | 0.231 | 0.668 | 1.450 | 4.00 | 0.128 | 89.79 | 61.0% |
| Buchholz | 0.298 | 3.28 | 0.301 | 3.63 | 0.266 | 0.768 | 1.660 | 5.10 | 0.077 | 93.31 | 63.4% |
| Dickey | 0.330 | 4.10 | 0.311 | 4.18 | 0.239 | 0.670 | 1.320 | 4.54 | 0.101 | 105.16 | 64.7% |
| Eovaldi | 0.341 | 4.12 | 0.284 | 3.44 | 0.240 | 0.660 | 1.240 | 3.32 | 0.125 | 100.89 | 66.2% |
| Santana | 0.326 | 3.54 | 0.277 | 3.62 | 0.254 | 0.706 | 1.270 | 3.18 | 0.149 | 96.44 | 63.3% |
| Cobb | 0.290 | 3.38 | 0.303 | 3.12 | 0.250 | 0.668 | 1.250 | 3.84 | 0.133 | 91.75 | 64.4% |
| Lynn | 0.334 | 4.44 | 0.287 | 3.16 | 0.247 | 0.688 | 1.310 | 3.24 | 0.123 | 101.94 | 62.3% |
| Kennedy | 0.333 | 4.88 | 0.324 | 4.01 | 0.230 | 0.652 | 1.210 | 2.93 | 0.198 | 103.47 | 65.1% |
| Wada | 0.194 | 0.563 | |||||||||
| Tillman | 0.326 | 4.12 | 0.310 | 3.53 | 0.257 | 0.730 | 1.390 | 4.55 | 0.051 | 100.00 | 62.3% |
| Weaver | 0.299 | 3.50 | 0.288 | 3.15 | 0.269 | 0.742 | 1.140 | 4.24 | 0.125 | 95.42 | 61.6% |
| Peacock | 0.363 | 5.79 | 0.311 | 3.69 | 0.259 | 0.739 | 1.480 | 4.29 | 0.088 | 83.47 | 61.5% |
| Chavez | 0.306 | 3.34 | 0.284 | 3.53 | 0.224 | 0.657 | 1.26 | 3.38 | 0.146 | 98.06 | 66.2% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window