Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 24th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De La Rosa | BOS | TOR | 32.1 | 2.51 | 3.09 | 1.03 | 57.1% | 24.0% | 6.4% | 0.84 | 1.87 |
| Stroman | TOR | BOS | 49.2 | 3.44 | 3.43 | 1.18 | 66.7% | 20.9% | 5.8% | 0.72 | 1.43 |
| Lewis | TEX | NYY | 81.2 | 5.51 | 4.10 | 1.72 | 11.8% | 19.1% | 6.9% | 1.10 | 0.71 |
| McCarthy | NYY | TEX | 109.2 | 5.01 | 3.01 | 1.38 | 35.0% | 20.0% | 4.3% | 1.23 | 2.56 |
| Hudson | SFG | PHI | 113.2 | 2.53 | 3.28 | 1.05 | 68.4% | 16.3% | 3.5% | 0.48 | 2.46 |
| Hamels | PHI | SFG | 100.1 | 2.87 | 3.39 | 1.23 | 58.8% | 24.5% | 8.5% | 0.63 | 1.54 |
| Feldman | HOU | OAK | 84 | 3.86 | 4.27 | 1.29 | 47.1% | 14.3% | 5.8% | 0.96 | 1.41 |
| Samardzija | OAK | HOU | 115 | 2.74 | 3.23 | 1.17 | 60.0% | 22.8% | 6.8% | 0.55 | 1.94 |
| Alvarez | MIA | ATL | 115 | 2.27 | 3.65 | 1.24 | 50.0% | 14.7% | 4.6% | 0.39 | 2.40 |
| Harang | ATL | MIA | 110.1 | 3.67 | 4.08 | 1.40 | 75.0% | 19.8% | 8.5% | 0.65 | 1.02 |
| Ross | SDP | CHC | 122.2 | 2.93 | 3.23 | 1.19 | 66.7% | 23.1% | 8.3% | 0.73 | 2.49 |
| Jackson | CHC | SDP | 101.2 | 5.05 | 4.07 | 1.53 | 15.0% | 21.1% | 10.1% | 0.80 | 1.22 |
| Gee | NYM | MIL | 52.2 | 2.73 | 4.42 | 1.07 | 50.0% | 15.6% | 7.1% | 1.03 | 1.03 |
| Garza | MIL | NYM | 116.2 | 3.78 | 4.07 | 1.22 | 35.0% | 18.4% | 7.4% | 0.62 | 1.15 |
| Kluber | CLE | KCR | 125.2 | 2.86 | 2.85 | 1.18 | 57.1% | 26.6% | 5.8% | 0.64 | 1.56 |
| Duffy | KCR | CLE | 78.2 | 2.86 | 4.30 | 1.13 | 57.1% | 19.0% | 9.0% | 0.80 | 0.76 |
| Noesi | CWS | MIN | 82.2 | 4.90 | 4.31 | 1.50 | 26.7% | 18.0% | 8.7% | 1.20 | 0.95 |
| Hughes | MIN | CWS | 116.2 | 3.70 | 3.25 | 1.18 | 45.0% | 21.4% | 2.3% | 0.69 | 0.93 |
| Scherzer | DET | LAA | 119.1 | 3.47 | 2.94 | 1.19 | 60.0% | 28.3% | 6.7% | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| Richards | LAA | DET | 116.1 | 2.71 | 3.30 | 1.07 | 65.0% | 25.3% | 8.7% | 0.31 | 1.69 |
| Chen | BAL | SEA | 98.1 | 4.12 | 3.96 | 1.30 | 31.6% | 16.7% | 4.4% | 1.46 | 1.12 |
| Iwakuma | SEA | BAL | 88 | 3.07 | 2.81 | 1.05 | 60.0% | 21.1% | 2.4% | 1.02 | 2.09 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Corey Kluber CLE (at KC) – Kluber is rolling once again. He had an obscene May with a 2.09 ERA and 60 Ks in 43 IP before faltering a bit in early-June with three shaky starts. However he has turned it around with another six start streak of excellence, netting a 2.06 ERA and 44 Ks in 43.7 IP. The strikeouts aren’t as high, but one-per-inning is still great, plus he does have 10 Ks in two of his last three. The other? It came against these Royals on July 6th and this is a team that doesn’t usually strikeout.
Tyson Ross SD (at CHC) – While Ross absolutely leverages Petco for his sparkly 2.70 ERA (he has a 1.89 ERA at home), he is hardly poor on the road. He has a 3.73 ERA in 10 road starts, but he’s down to 2.88 in his last seven, including a 6 IP/2 ER trip to Coors. The Cubs obviously offer a tremendous opportunity for Ross to stay hot on the road.
Max Scherzer DET (at LAA) – Scherzer has a 1.87 ERA in 33.7 IP since that 10 ER nightmare against KC. He also has 39 Ks and a 3.9 K:BB ratio in that span. His latest outing wasn’t great against Cleveland (5.7 IP/2 ER), but the other four were fantastic. This tough matchup and his lofty price tag keep him from the top spot, but he’s still a very good buy. In fact, the matchup against a good Angels team could make him a more scarce pick.
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (v. BAL) – Iwakuma has played himself into the gold tier by missing more bats of late. After just 29 in his first 43.7 IP (6.0 K9), he’s got 54 in his last 60 IP, only twice dipping below 5 and hitting a career-high 10 against Minnesota back on July 7th. His strikeouts used to hold him back a bit even with his consistent ability to log seven-plus innings. Now that he’s missing bats and still logging those kinds of innings, he’s a surefire stud.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Garrett Richards LAA (v. DET) – I’m a touch worried about Richards’ ERA holding this low the rest of the way, but even a run higher is still 3.47 so I’m hardly calling for an implosion. I just think that someone with his control is a bit over his head with that kind of ERA. That Detroit offense speed up a pitcher’s regression, too. With the price point and matchup, Richards isn’t a great play today. I can understand using him, but I wouldn’t build my lineup around him.
Danny Duffy KC (v. CLE) – Duffy’s ERA is even more fictitious and for the same reason as Richards’, but to a larger degree. Duffy isn’t missing nearly as many bats as Richards and he’s walk more batters, so that 2.66 ERA is sketchy. However, I believe he still has the bat-missing potential we’ve seen in past seasons and he has a nice matchup so I’m still recommending him today. Cleveland’s .665 OPS against lefties is baseball’s 27th-best mark. They are lefty-heavy which of course leaves them susceptible.
Matt Garza MIL (v. NYM) – Was Garza always this volatile? Now that I think about it, he kinda was. He always seemed to be in that upper-3.00s territory with his ERA, but he always looked better. When you scan the gamelogs, you see that he was always capable of seven scoreless or an 8 IP/1 ER gem, but he’d too often mix in a 5+ ER dud to muddy it all up. This year has been no different. He had a nice 2.53 ERA in nine starts to close out the first half only to last just a third of an inning while allowing 5 ER in Washington. It was his third 5+ ER outing of the year. He has no problem stomping the feeble, though. His 3.15 ERA against sub-.500 teams is much better than his 4.73 against better than .500 teams, so he should get back on track for the Brewers.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Henderson Alvarez MIA (at ATL) – The hidden gem of daily returns. Despite his tiny ERA, he remains a relative bargain in the pitching market due in large part to the fact that he doesn’t miss bats. I’ve accepted that deficiency and instead focus on what he can do which is log plenty of innings and keep runs off the board. He took a comebacker off the shin his last time out, but he’s been cleared to go so hopefully it doesn’t affect him.
Edwin Jackson CHC (v. SD) – Yes, it’s because of the Padres. And yes, I realize that they waxed him for 8 ER in four innings in San Diego on May 23rd, but I simply don’t see that happening again. Meanwhile, Jackson is way better than his 5.61 ERA. He frustratingly refuses to show it, but his skills are better than this.
Wei-Yin Chen BAL (at SEA) – The M’s are in the race and they have a good team, but they don’t have a good offense. They’re scoring just 3.1 runs per game in 18 games this month and their .657 OPS against lefties is MLB’s worst or second-worst, depending on whether or not you want to include the Padres. This is a great value play for an SP2, especially if you need to save money after getting an ace in the SP1 slot or you plan to spend on a handful of big bats.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Hector Noesi CWS (at MIN) – There aren’t many stack opportunities out there today. You’ll have to scatter your hitters and do so against some really tough arms so offense could be sparse.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De La Rosa | 0.308 | 2.13 | 0.319 | 4.15 | 0.266 | 0.768 | 1.020 | 3.21 | 0.176 | 102.40 | 63.3% |
| Stroman | 0.300 | 3.86 | 0.287 | 3.20 | 0.239 | 0.670 | 1.170 | 3.28 | 0.151 | 69.58 | 63.2% |
| Lewis | 0.447 | 7.16 | 0.358 | 5.86 | 0.250 | 0.693 | 1.710 | 4.05 | 0.122 | 96.07 | 64.5% |
| McCarthy | 0.335 | 4.15 | 0.345 | 5.09 | 0.256 | 0.690 | 1.380 | 3.80 | 0.157 | 90.83 | 68.0% |
| Hudson | 0.311 | 3.88 | 0.275 | 2.91 | 0.235 | 0.646 | 1.050 | 3.05 | 0.128 | 92.82 | 67.1% |
| Hamels | 0.298 | 4.63 | 0.306 | 3.04 | 0.248 | 0.710 | 1.230 | 3.15 | 0.16 | 105.47 | 64.1% |
| Feldman | 0.318 | 4.26 | 0.311 | 3.79 | 0.259 | 0.739 | 1.290 | 4.38 | 0.085 | 95.93 | 63.6% |
| Samardzija | 0.332 | 4.15 | 0.301 | 3.60 | 0.224 | 0.657 | 1.170 | 3.02 | 0.16 | 99.72 | 65.7% |
| Alvarez | 0.312 | 3.22 | 0.281 | 2.94 | 0.240 | 0.660 | 1.240 | 3.17 | 0.101 | 88.33 | 66.6% |
| Harang | 0.350 | 4.68 | 0.314 | 4.26 | 0.254 | 0.706 | 1.400 | 3.49 | 0.113 | 103.00 | 63.6% |
| Ross | 0.295 | 3.25 | 0.272 | 2.64 | 0.230 | 0.652 | 1.190 | 3.37 | 0.148 | 100.32 | 62.5% |
| Jackson | 0.378 | 6.18 | 0.330 | 4.64 | 0.218 | 0.611 | 1.520 | 3.83 | 0.11 | 96.72 | 61.9% |
| Gee | 0.348 | 4.28 | 0.283 | 2.86 | 0.263 | 0.732 | 1.060 | 4.31 | 0.085 | 96.38 | 64.1% |
| Garza | 0.308 | 4.11 | 0.299 | 3.77 | 0.237 | 0.671 | 1.220 | 3.42 | 0.11 | 99.78 | 66.0% |
| Kluber | 0.336 | 4.18 | 0.281 | 2.70 | 0.267 | 0.693 | 1.180 | 2.65 | 0.207 | 101.00 | 66.7% |
| Duffy | 0.212 | 1.05 | 0.296 | 2.97 | 0.245 | 0.671 | 1.120 | 3.94 | 0.1 | 70.78 | 63.7% |
| Noesi | 0.336 | 5.03 | 0.403 | 6.36 | 0.243 | 0.686 | 1.490 | 4.45 | 0.093 | 73.68 | 63.8% |
| Hughes | 0.328 | 4.22 | 0.353 | 5.21 | 0.253 | 0.719 | 1.170 | 2.68 | 0.191 | 96.83 | 72.3% |
| Scherzer | 0.296 | 3.27 | 0.249 | 2.81 | 0.257 | 0.730 | 1.190 | 2.89 | 0.216 | 109.33 | 65.4% |
| Richards | 0.292 | 3.54 | 0.264 | 3.24 | 0.276 | 0.769 | 1.070 | 2.70 | 0.166 | 102.17 | 62.0% |
| Chen | 0.328 | 3.88 | 0.344 | 4.24 | 0.249 | 0.639 | 1.300 | 4.44 | 0.123 | 96.29 | 65.3% |
| Iwakuma | 0.277 | 2.46 | 0.273 | 3.13 | 0.269 | 0.742 | 1.050 | 3.23 | 0.188 | 93.54 | 68.8% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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