Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 21st, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-06-21 19:40:17

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: June 21st, 2013

STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Clayton Kershaw, LAD (at SD) – The NL’s ERA and hits allowed leader heads into one of the friendliest venues in the game where he has career 2.06 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 43.7 innings. The Padres got to him a little bit at home earlier in June scoring three runs (two earned) in six innings on seven hits and three walks. He did fan nine in the loss, though. It’s the only start in his last 10 where he didn’t go at least seven innings. He has a 1.71 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 73.7 innings with 69 strikeouts during the run.

Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA (v. OAK) – When one of your worst starts is giving up four runs in five innings, you’re having a great season. The A’s got to Iwakuma in his last outing against them after getting dominated twice earlier this year. He hadn’t given up an earned run for 28.7 innings before that spanning three full starts and six inning of a fourth. Iwakuma has been amazing this year and I’m betting on a rebound after Sunday’s tough outing.

Johnny Cueto, CIN (at ARI) – With a pair of DL stints under his belt, Cueto is a bit underrated this year as his 2.08 ERA and 0.88 WHIP aren’t drawing much attention. In fact, on a day with several other big names going, his price is actually ripe for buying at many spots. DailyJoust has him second to only Iwakuma, but almost every other site has him third or lower. DraftStreet has him second to Kershaw, but with nearly $4000 of savings. The Diamondbacks only have the 19th-highest OPS at home this year despite their hitter-friendly environs.

Stephen Strasburg, WAS (v. COL) – Has anyone ever received more undue criticism for a 2.50 ERA than Strasburg? While I’m not the least bit worried about Verlander, at least he has a 3.72 ERA to feed the panic. Strasburg, as far as I can tell, has one truly awful outing this year (6 ER in Cincy). He’s given up exactly one run in each of his last five outings posting a 1.50 ERA in 30 innings. He does have a DL stint, but nothing about his season has been bad. After a hot April on the road, the Rockies offense has fallen back into to their normal routine of dominating at home and morphing into a weak offense on the road with a 660 OPS since May 1st and most of that is with Troy Tulowitzki. If Cueto is a bargain at some outlets, Strasburg is downright cheap.

Doug Fister, DET (v. BOS) – Since the disaster series in Texas where both Fister and Justin Verlander were obliterated, the former has run off a string five straight outings going at least seven innings allowing three or fewer runs, good for a 2.61 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 38 innings. He even has seven or more strikeouts in three of the outings, though two were against Minnesota and the other was against Pittsburgh. The Red Sox will present a tougher challenge than any of the teams he has faced in these last five, but he did throw an excellent 8.3 innings against the Rays, who have been tough on pitchers since the start of May.

Cole Hamels, PHI (v. NYM) – Hamels was in a bit of a funk during May and despite some solid starts, his mechanics just weren’t as crisp as usual so his 4.95 ERA wasn’t too much of a surprise despite a 4.0 K/BB in 36.3 innings. He took six losses, too, just to make matters worse. He’s been much better in June and his mechanics have been sharp in his last two outings. He has a 2.70 ERA in his three June starts with a 23/3 K/BB ratio in 20 innings. The Mets used to be an automatic loss for Hamels, but he’s 3-0 the last two seasons with a 3.44 ERA in 34 innings.

Jered Weaver, LAA (v. PIT) – Weaver looked strong initially in his return from the disabled, but he’s faltered in his last two against the Orioles and Yankees. However, he gets the Pirates this time out who have built their record on pitching. They have the 20th-best road offense against righties and it falls to 22nd if you include their work at PNC Park. Angels Stadium isn’t a particularly friendly environment and Weaver is nails there so I fully expect a rebound tonight.

BEST THE REST:

Bartolo Colon, OAK (at SEA) – The only negative against Colon is that most sites have elevated his price to something commensurate with his excellent 2.89 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, but his lack of strikeouts cut his margin for error. Of course, he has worked within in that margin yielding more than three runs just twice in 14 outings this year. He’s been amazing. He notched his ninth win of the season in that outing against Iwakuma on Sunday allowing just two runs in seven innings with three strikeouts, but that’s his only outing against the Mariners this year. Their 676 OPS at home against righties is the sixth-worst in baseball.

Julio Teheran, ATL (at MIL) – Even with Ryan Braun the Brewers were only a league average offense against righties and now they are missing their best player to a thumb injury. Teheran, meanwhile, is maturing before our eyes. His only flub in his last 10 starts was actually his outing in Petco Park where he allowed five in six innings against the Padres. Sometimes even the best setup goes awry. However, even with that outing he has a 2.42 ERA in his last 10 (67 IP) with a 54/9 K/BB ratio. His stuff has been positively electric and he’s managed to live in the zone (3.4% BB rate during 10 start run) without giving up the long ball (0.67 HR/9).

Tyler Chatwood, COL (at WAS) – Chatwood has been great in his seven starts this year, but he’s had trouble staying healthy hence just seven starts. He’s dirt cheap and gets the lame Nationals offense, but facing Strasburg cuts into his win potential as it will be a grind for runs tonight. And since he only has one outing with more than five strikeouts, I’m worried about whether or not he can post a big score in a no-decision like Strasburg can if the two are deadlocked after seven or eight innings. He’s a great low-dollar option as a second SP at sites using more than one.

Jeremy Guthrie, KC (v. CWS) – The MLB home run machine (19 HRs allowed) gets his favorite opponent tonight elevating his status. He has OWNED the White Sox as a Royal. In six starts against them since the middle of last year when he was traded to KC, he has an 0.40 ERA in 44 innings of work. Against the rest of the league, he has a 4.40 ERA in 139 innings. If you buy into the trend, he won’t cost you much and should give you an ace-worthy outing. It doesn’t hurt that the White Sox are garbage: they have the 26th-highest OPS against righties at 676.

USE CAUTION:

Derek Holland, TEX (at STL) – The fact that Holland has a 3.80 ERA in his last eight is pretty impressive when you consider that he has allowed 66 hits in his 47.3 innings. Throw in his 12 walks and he has a 1.65 WHIP in that span. He’s just giving up far too many hits. If there is one team that will take advantage of that, it’s the Cardinals. Now they aren’t particularly strong against lefties with a 669 OPS and .234 batting average so if Holland can recapture his April form, he has a shot, but I’m leery.

Jon Lester, BOS (at DET) – The only upside here is his bargain basement price at almost every outlet, but the risk is severe. He’s been getting pummeled of late with a 7.20 ERA in his last six starts. The Tigers have baseball’s top OBP (.357) and second-best OPS against lefties (783) which only adds to the risk. I just don’t see many reasons to invest here. The name value for the price is enticing if you really think he’s going to turn it around, but there isn’t anything within the data that would suggest a quick fix is in order.

Ricky Nolasco, MIA (at SF) – Nolasco has quietly run off a great stretch of work in his last six posting a 2.61 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 41.3 innings with 37 strikeouts and a 3.7 K/BB. His lineup and bullpen have even aided him to a pair of wins during the run. The Giants, meanwhile, are floundering offensively with a 646 OPS against righties in the last calendar month. Most sites are hot to his success despite his being a Marlin. He’s not overpriced, he’s just fairly priced, but most Marlins are undervalued.

Gerrit Cole, PIT (at LAA) – The young phenom has impressed in his first two outings against the Giants and Dodgers, but now he takes his show on the road to face the other LA team – the one with a good lineup. The Angels will easily be the toughest matchup Cole has had so far plus it’s his first road game so I don’t love the setup. The Angels are behind only the Red Sox for home offense with an 857 OPS and their .309 AVG is tops. Tread cautiously, especially as some outlets have raised Cole’s price thanks to some nice work in his first two starts.

Tim Lincecum, SF (v. MIA) – He’s been better in June with a 2.55 ERA and squaring off against the Marlins will draw attention, but it would be with great trepidation that I would click his name if I took the plunge. The Marlins haven’t been too far from the Pirates in the last month according to OPS and Lincecum struggled in PNC Park two starts ago allowing four runs (only two earned) in 4.7 innings on seven hits and two walks with four strikeouts. He just labors through seemingly every outing and it is entirely nerve-wracking to have him as starter. I should know, I sat that through that Pittsburgh nightmare and watched him trash my night while I went against my instincts to take Cole in his debut for pennies by comparison. Just be careful, don’t think just because he’s facing the Marlins that he is a guaranteed a gem.

Wade Miley, ARI (v. CIN) – Don’t be confused by Miley’s surface numbers in June. His 3.38 ERA is masked a bit by five unearned runs and his 26 hits allowed in 18.7 innings suggests that he hasn’t quite emerged from the wretched May he had (7.34 ERA in 34.3 IP). The Reds don’t fare well against lefties on the road. Their .229 AVG is the eighth-worst while their 657 OPS is 11th. There is a modicum of upside here, but I’d be more intrigued if Miley’s mates weren’t tasked with figuring out Cueto.

Roberto Hernandez, TB (at NYY) – There has been nothing particularly special or appealing about his 2013, but the Yankees offense is complete garbage. Since May 1st, they have the third-worst OPS against righties at home (641) while striking out 23% of the time. For those of you who look more at matchup than talent, this is up your alley.

David Phelps, NYY (v. TB) – Phelps hasn’t allowed more than four runs in any of his nine starts going at least six in seven of them, too. The Rays are a strong offense and they were one of the teams to put up four runs against Phelps (May 24th). He has a solid 23% strikeout rate as a starter, too, though his 10% walk rate isn’t good. Phelps is the better starter in this matchup, but he’s facing the far tougher team so I gave Hernandez the slight edge.

Hector Santiago, CWS (at KC) – Santiago has actually been better as a starter with a 3.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and very impressive 27% strikeout rate in 39 innings. The Royals are surging offensively, specifically against lefties with the second-best OPS against southpaws in June (868). In fact, they have the ninth-best offense against lefties all year long (734) along with a .282 AVG. Santiago will need to bring his A-game to match Guthrie pitch-for-pitch as he owns the White Sox.

Scott Kazmir, CLE (v. MIN) – One of Kazmir’s best outings of the year came against the Twins back in early May when he allowed two runs in six innings striking out seven and walking just one, but he’s been wildly inconsistent and the Twins are actually league average OPS-wise against lefties despite struggling to turn it into many runs (their 74 ranks 24th, while their 725 OPS is 14th).

Jeremy Hefner, NYM (at PHI) – Hefner has only given up more than four earned once all year, more than three just three times, though he’s only gone more than six innings three times which puts a lot of the burden on his bullpen hence his 1-6 record. He’s a budget arm who fits as the second or third in your lineup. He can give you a passable score without killing you, but he’s unlikely to score big.

R.A. Dickey, TOR (v. BAL) – This year his knuckleball is behaving like the pitch usually does, sporadically. He’s allowed seven runs three times, six runs two other times, but also two runs three times and one or zero runs four times with no rhyme or reason related to when and where he’s allowing the runs. Baltimore is too good of an offense to roll the dice here. I could see his fourth outing of seven earned just as easily as I can see six shutout innings. Pass, the full slate offers better options.

Clayton Richard, SD (v. LAD) – He has a 2.2 HR/9 and 11.1 H/9 despite throwing half of his starts in Petco Park. He is singlehandedly making it look like the moved in fences are really work in San Diego. The Dodgers offense isn’t scary, but it is scarier with Hanley Ramirez joining Adrian Gonzalez and Yasiel Puig to create a legitimate heart of the order. Even if I thought he could throw a solid game, I don’t see him beating Kershaw and notching a win.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

• Samuel Deduno, MIN
• Jason Hammel, BAL
• Tyler Lyons, STL
• Wily Peralta, MIL

_____________________________________________________________________________________

PARK FACTORS: June 21st, 2013

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Starting Pitcher Salaries: June 21st, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.