Fantasy Hockey for Those with Puck Apathy

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With the NBA stuck in limbo and college hoops still a couple of weeks from tip-off, Grinders have been forced to turn to the NHL for mid-week action. Given that the NHL has been lagging the other sports in popularity for years, you probably aren’t sure exactly how to attack daily fantasy on ice. I’ve got you covered, with a handy analogy:

Fantasy hockey is pretty much just like fantasy baseball

Purists on both sides of that statement just cringed, I’m sure. The real games look nothing like each other, but when it comes to the imaginary realm of stat compilation, they do.

Goaltenders

When sizing up a day of baseball, what’s the first element that you look for? Starting pitchers, right? Well, starting pitchers are pretty much analogous to starting goaltenders in hockey. Baseball makes it easy for everyone by publishing starting pitchers clearly, often a full week in advance. The NHL has no such system, though it’s pretty easy to find starting goaltenders with a simple Google search or two. Starting pitchers and goalies offer some clues as to whether or not a particular team is likely to do some scoring. In games that can, at time, be dominated by defense, any signs that suggest scoring may take place in a particular building is useful information to have.

To take this part of the analogy to a place that helps with goaltender selection, you can essentially use goals against average (GAA) and save percentage the same way you would use ERA and WHIP in baseball. When it comes to selecting under-the-radar netminders, you’ll want to take mid-level talents facing bad offenses. We’ll discuss the offenses in a second.

Like starting pitchers in baseball, goaltenders are not the sole determinant in identifying scoring opportunities. The defensive ability of the team’s skaters can greatly enhance or detract from a goaltender’s value. General defensive effectiveness is usually evident when a goalie’s GAA and save percentage have disparate results. Bad defenses let more (and better) shots hit the net, so a goalie with a high-ish GAA and a strong save percentage is one with a bad set of defenders. On the other side, a low GAA with a low-ish save percentage indicates a strong defense and a vulnerable man between the pipes. Watch for skater injuries for opportunities to exploit fraudulent goalies.

Skaters

In fantasy baseball, being in the starting lineup is critical. In hockey, the starting group doesn’t so much matter, but who is expected to be on the ice the most is. In hockey, you generally have 3 sets of lineups: Full strength, power play and penalty kill. Teams employ 4 lines of forwards and 3 pairing of defenders that rotate in and out during play at full strength and generally two units for special teams. Players on the top two lines/defensive pairings and top power play units see the most time on the ice, typically at least 20 minutes. You can’t score points if you aren’t on the ice, so using players getting regular ice time is critical. Given the bonus points awarded for goals and assists on the power play, those logging regular time with the man advantage are nice assets as well. Keeping tabs on who is skating on which line/pairing/unit can point you toward players who will have the opportunities to score.

That being said, a really busy night for a skater has him on the ice for less than half of a game, meaning there are minutes and opportunities for several players to accumulate stats in any given night. I tend to find that those on the 2nd power play unit present nice boom/bust opportunity. In a typical 2-minute power play, the first unit will likely be on the ice for more than half of it, but any time on the power play is valuable.

A word on BvP and Goalie v. Team Stats

A lot of you probably utilized batter v. pitcher statistics when setting baseball lineups. The individual, man v. man nature of baseball make those statistics useful. They exist in hockey for goalies, but I don’t find them to be useful at all. So what if Dwayne Roloson owns a career record of 9-0-1-1 against the franchise known as the Jets/Thrashers? Hockey rosters are so fluid that the players on the teams in those 11 starts by Roly the Goalie probably aren’t there…and in many cases, haven’t been for quite some time. Goaltender v. team data is semi-useful within a season, but long term, they are nothing more than neat oddities and trivia.

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Article Image RotoKevin is a Top 100 Ranked Grinder, who started climbing the rankings during MLB season of 2011. Rotokevin’s been playing fantasy sports long enough to have owned two generations of Griffeys, Barfields and Fielders. He’s captured seasonal league glory in all four major sports, though claims no particular knowledge of the NHL. He’s dabbled in non-mainstream fantasy sports such as soccer and golf and once attempted NASCAR with spectacular failure. He’s a man of the people and you’ll frequently find him in the $5 and $11-level games at your favorite daily sports site…you know, provided your favorite site is DraftStreet.

About the Author

rotokevin
Kevin Dahle (rotokevin)

RotoKevin has been playing fantasy sports longer than he cares to admit. He compiled stats by hand from newspaper box scores for his first fantasy baseball league. He’s that old. He’s been profitably grinding daily fantasy since 2010, and finally secured a signature W by becoming a FanDuel 2014 DFBC Finalist. You can find him on nearly every site at some point during the year. He probably spends more time than you researching the tax implications of daily fantasy play and has been known to enjoy white wine on occasion.