MLB First Look: Thursday, July 31st
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#6 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more.
Thursday’s MLB Schedule
TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
---|---|---|---|---|
1:08 PM | Chi. White Sox | Detroit | Danks (9-6) – 4.40 ERA | Smyly (6-9) – 3.77 ERA |
2:20 PM | Colorado | Chi. Cubs | Hernández (0-0) – 0.00 ERA | Arrieta (5-2) – 2.18 ERA |
3:40 PM | St. Louis | San Diego | Miller (7-8) – 4.20 ERA | Despaigne (2-2) – 1.66 ERA |
7:05 PM | L.A. Angels | Baltimore | Skaggs (5-5) – 4.49 ERA | Norris (8-7) – 3.94 ERA |
7:05 PM | Seattle | Cleveland | Young (9-6) – 3.04 ERA | McAllister (3-6) – 5.65 ERA |
7:05 PM | Philadelphia | Washington | Lee (4-5) – 3.78 ERA | Gonzalez (6-6) – 3.56 ERA |
7:10 PM | Cincinnati | Miami | Cueto (11-6) – 2.08 ERA | Koehler (7-7) – 3.91 ERA |
8:10 PM | Toronto | Houston | Hutchison (7-9) – 4.44 ERA | Cosart (9-7) – 4.41 ERA |
8:10 PM | Minnesota | Kansas City | Correia (5-13) – 5.06 ERA | Ventura (7-8) – 3.63 ERA |
9:40 PM | Pittsburgh | Arizona | Locke (2-2) – 3.54 ERA | Collmenter (8-5) – 4.03 ERA |
10:10 PM | Atlanta | L.A. Dodgers | Teheran (10-6) – 2.71 ERA | Kershaw (12-2) – 1.76 ERA |
UPDATE – Tyler Matzek has been replaced by Pedro Hernandez for today’s 2:20 game vs the Cubs
– Click the “$” icon to view a player’s price on each of the sites
Thursday’s Noteworthy Research Findings
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
Clayton Kershaw – Kershaw is easily the top play on Thursday. He’s the best pitcher in baseball and is facing a strikeout happy Braves team at home. Greinke posted 13 K’s against them last night and I expect a similar result from Kershaw in this one.
Gio Gonzalez – Gonzalez is quite a bit cheaper than Kershaw if you want to save some cap space, but still take an ace. He has a nice matchup against the Phillies who have quite a few LH hitters in their lineup. Plus, he’s facing them at home where he has been dominant in his career.
Johnny Cueto – Cueto may fly under the radar a bit on Thursday as he is facing the Marlins on the road. I think he pitches well though. He’s coming off of a terrific start against the Nationals and now gets to face the strikeout happy Marlins in a huge ballpark.
2) Two Offenses to Target
Detroit Tigers – The Tigers were the top target in yesterday’s First Look and earn that spot again on Thursday with a matchup against John Danks. Danks has really struggled vs. RH hitters this season and the Tigers are ranked 3rd in wOBA vs. LH pitching this season.
Baltimore Orioles – The Orioles are facing a lefty at home. There are quite a few bats in this lineup that feast on LH pitching. Tyler Skaggs is a decent strikeout pitcher, but he is very hittable and I expect the O’s to put up quite a few runs in this one.
3) wOBA vs. BvP Play of the Day
David Ortiz was not in the Red Sox lineup on Wednesday, so we will count skip over yesterday’s match.
Scoreboard: wOBA 2 – BvP 1
Mike Moustakas (BvP Play of the Day) – I would have like to put Ian Kinsler or Austin Jackson here, but both are two of the top wOBA matchups as well, so I had to dig a little deeper. Moustakas is 7/17 with 3 doubles off of Kevin Correia in his career. He’s also drawn 2 walks against him for a career OBP of .450 against Correia.
Nick Castellanos (wOBA Play of the Day) – There were few options for my BvP selection today, so with Moustakas as the pick, I had to take someone that’s at a similar price point for my wOBA play. Castellanos has a .361 wOBA vs. LH pitching this season and he’s facing John Danks who has given up a .345 wOBA to RH hitters.
4) Bargain Bin Baller Play
Yangervis Solarte – Solarte has been red hot over his last 9 games as he’s recorded 14 hits, 6 of which went for extra bases. The Padres are finally starting to score some runs and Solarte makes a nice value play once again on Thursday. He’s facing Shelby Miller who has given up a .350 wOBA to LH hitters this season.
5) Daily Dong Prediction
Carlos Santana – Santana is my pick to homer on Thursday. He is facing Chris Young who has already given up 18 HR’s this season which is the 10th most in all of baseball. Young has given up 10 of those HR’s to LH hitters. Meanwhile, Santana has been locked all month long and he’s already hit 8 HR’s in the month of July.