MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 18th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
St. Louis at Washington
| St. Louis | Washington |
| Michael Wacha | Vegas Moneyline | Gio Gonzalez | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | WAS (-110) | LEFT | 7.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.204 | 0.541 | 0.244 | 22.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.209 | 0.584 | 0.265 | 26.6% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.232 | 0.652 | 0.293 | 26.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.237 | 0.691 | 0.310 | 22.5% |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP  | STL vs L | Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Michael Wacha – Wacha is one of the best young pitchers in baseball. In his last 9 starts he has an ERA under 2.00 with a K/9 of 11.1. While his numbers have dipped a little bit in his road starts, his high K-rate more than makes up for that. He faces a Nationals lineup that is pretty average offensively and he is facing them in Nationals Park which is a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Everything is lining up for another strong start from Wacha. Rating = 8
- Gio Gonzalez – Gio is a terrific LH pitcher that has enjoyed tremendous success at Nationals Park. In 16 home starts last season, he posted a 2.87 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and a K/9 of 8.4. He is coming off of a rough outing against the Braves in his last start though and he faces a Cardinals offense that is one of the better hitting teams against LH pitching. Gio makes for a nice tournament play, but I would rather target Wacha in cash games. Rating = 7
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
- Yadier Molina – This game features one of the lowest run totals on the board so don’t get carried away with hitters from this game. Molina is excellent against LH pitching though (.333 average last season) and is riding a 9 game hitting streak in which he has accumulated 15 hits.
Washington
- There aren’t any batters that really stand out to me here. Wacha held LH and RH batters under a .300 wOBA last season and looks sharp in his first 3 starts of this season.
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
| Milwaukee | Pittsburgh |
| Kyle Lohse | Vegas Moneyline | Charlie Morton | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | PIT (-117) | RIGHT | 7.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.263 | 0.751 | 0.332 | 17.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.302 | 0.746 | 0.364 | 17.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.247 | 0.628 | 0.279 | 15.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.226 | 0.566 | 0.261 | 17.4% |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Kyle Lohse – Lohse is coming off of a terrific start against the Pirates in which he was 1-out away from a complete game. He gets to face them again tonight and this time he faces them in PNC Park which is a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Lohse sported an average K/9 last season of 5.9, but could make a nice play tonight if you are looking to save some cap space. Rating = 6
- Charlie Morton – Morton will not be a popular play tonight, but I think this is actually a very nice spot for him. Last season he held RH batters to a .261 wOBA and the Brewers typically start 7 or 8 RH hitters in their lineup. Not only that, but Morton had a 2.85 ERA at home last season with a 1.17 WHIP. I think he is a much better play than the masses and he could be a nice target for tournaments. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
- Like I mentioned above, Morton is very good against RH batters. The total for this game is set at only 7.0 runs and there are other teams that I would much rather target instead of the Brewers.
Pittsburgh
- I’m expecting this game to be very low scoring. Lohse held RH batters to a .279 wOBA last season which hurts the value of guys like Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte. With two games with run totals of 10 or more, I don’t think you need to target hitters from this game.
Toronto at Cleveland
| Toronto | Cleveland |
| Drew Hutchison | Vegas Moneyline | Justin Masterson | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | CLE (-144) | RIGHT | 7.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.250 | 0.829 | 0.372 | 22.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.251 | 0.685 | 0.318 | 19.7% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.231 | 0.519 | 0.254 | 25.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.188 | 0.488 | 0.248 | 30.8% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Drew Hutchison – Hutchison has held his opponents scoreless in 2 of his first 3 starts. His ERA for the season is 3.68, but his WHIP of 1.48 tells another story. Hutchison has only managed to pitch just over 14 innings in his first 3 starts. He comes into this game as a sizable underdog (+135) and lacks the upside needed to target him as a starting pitcher. Rating = 4
- Justin Masterson – Masterson has really struggled with his command in his last two starts. He has given up 8 walks and 10 earned runs in his last two outings and the last thing that I want to do is target a pitcher that can’t hit the strike zone. He could very well have a nice bounce back game, but he could also very well get lit up by Joey Bats and company. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
- Edwin Encarnacion – Masterson has typically been dominant against RH batters, but in first first 3 starts he is giving up a .480 OBP with a .758 OPS to RH batters. Encarnacion has 7 hits in his last 4 games and makes a nice play against the struggling Masterson.
Cleveland
- Jason Kipnis – Kipnis got throw out of the Indians last game, but will be back in the lineup tonight against Hutchison who gave up a .372 wOBA and an OPS of .829 to LH batters last season. Kipnis has great power against RH pitching and can throw in a stolen base every now and then.
LA Angels at Detroit
| LA Angels | Detroit |
| Jered Weaver | Vegas Moneyline | Drew Smyly | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | DET (-113) | LEFT | 8.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.223 | 0.632 | 0.287 | 19.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.174 | 0.436 | 0.196 | 26.6% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.254 | 0.739 | 0.324 | 17.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.682 | 0.305 | 27.2% |
| Batter Splits | LAA BvP | LAA vs L | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jered Weaver – Weaver was well on his way to a win in his last start, but then gave up a run in the 6th and then the bullpen let him down by giving up two more runs that were both charged to Weaver. Weaver is not the same dominant ace that he has been in year’s past and he draws a very tough matchup against the Tigers in Comerica. I have a hard time taking pitchers against Miggy who can ruin a start with one swing of the bat. Rating = 5
- Drew Smyly – Smyly will make his first start of the season after getting some work out of the bullpen. Smyly has not started a game since 2012 and he will get a tough test right off the bat. The Angels hit LH pitching well and their offense has been firing on all cylinders over the last two weeks. He’s a below average option tonight. Rating = 3
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
- Albert Pujols – Pujols is really starting to swing the bat well and he’s going to have to keep it up if the Angels want to get any kind of return on their investment in him. Pujols has 9 hits in his last 7 games including 3 HR’s. He is also batting .316 against LH pitching this season.
Detroit
- Miguel Cabrera – Miggy is also starting to swing the bat well. He made some great contact in his last game and I will continue to target him as his price is down across the industry. Weaver is a reverse splits pitcher that gives up a higher wOBA and OPS to RH batters.
NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
| NY Yankees | Tampa Bay |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Vegas Moneyline | Erik Bedard | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | TBR (-110) | LEFT | 7.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.259 | 0.740 | 0.326 | 17.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.309 | 0.821 | 0.369 | 16.9% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.233 | 0.593 | 0.264 | 20.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.244 | 0.745 | 0.332 | 21.7% |
| Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs L | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Hiroki Kuroda – Kuroda will hope to have some of the same kind of success against the Rays that Sabathia did last night. This Rays offense has had some extremely tough luck over the last week or so. They are stranding base runners left and right, hitting into double and triple plays, and striking out more often that they would like to. This game is basically a pick ‘em game and while nothing is pointing me in this direction, my gut feeling is that he struggled tonight against the Rays. Kuroda has given up 14 hits in his last two starts and struggled on the road last season. Rating = 6
- Erik Bedard – Bedard has bounced around the league over the past few years and will make his first start as a member of the Rays. Last season Bedard had a 4.59 ERA with a K/9 of 8.2. The issue here is that he is facing a Yankees lineup that is starting to heat up offensively. They shelled David Price for 6 earned runs and 3 homers last night. Bedard looks like an easy pitcher to avoid tonight. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
- Jacoby Ellsbury – Bedard is also a reverse splits pitcher. Last season he gave up a .363 wOBA and an OPS of .821 to LH batters. Ellsbury can hit LH pitching well and is coming off of a big outing last night against Price. His price is cheap on a couple of sites and most people may avoid him as soon as they see that he has a lefty/lefty matchup.
Tampa Bay
- Matt Joyce – Joyce had the night off last night, but will be back in the lineup tonight against the RH pitcher Kuroda who gave up a .324 wOBA to LH batters last season. Joyce is a nice punt option in the OF tonight and does have 3 HR’s off of Kuroda in his career.
MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2
