MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 1st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-08-01 22:11:49

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

It was an extremely busy day for GM’s across the MLB. In case you missed any of the trades, here is a quick recap of the major trades that will impact DFS:

David Price to the Tigers – This was a 3 team deal in which the Rays received Drew Smyly and the Mariners received Austin Jackson.
Jon Lester to the A’s – The A’s also received Jonny Gomes from the Red Sox in exchange for Yoenis Cespedes.
John Lackey to the Cardinals – The Red Sox received Joe Kelly and Allen Craig in the deal.
Stephen Drew to the Yankees – In exchange, Kelly Johnson will head to the Red Sox.
Martin Prado to the Yankees – The Diamondbacks received a minor-leaguer.
Gerardo Parra to the Brewers – He will be a much needed LH hitter in their lineup. Two minor leaguers were send to the D-Backs in the trade.
Jarred Cosart and Enrique Hernandez to the Marlins – Colin Moran (6th overall pick in the draft last year) and Jake Marisnick will head to the Astros.
Emilio Bonifacio to the Braves – The Cubs received a minor-leaguer.
Asdrubal Cabrera to the Nationals – The Indians received Zach Walters in the deal.
Tom Milone to the Twins – The A’s received Sam Fuld.
Chris Denorfia to the Mariners – In exchange for Abraham Almonte.

Texas at Cleveland

Texas					Cleveland
Jerome Williams		Vegas Moneyline			T.J. House		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CLE (-175)			LEFT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.278	0.799	0.350	20.30%	SP vs. Left	0.282	0.719	0.318	17.60%
SP vs. Right	0.299	0.816	0.360	14.20%	SP vs. Right	0.328	0.907	0.397	12.80%
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs L		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jerome Williams – Williams has not had great success as a big league starter. Most of his work this season has been out of the bullpen and he’s still only managed to post a 5.53 ERA with a K/9 of 7.0. He draws an extremely tough matchup against the Indians who are ranked 3rd in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5,300 FD, $8,850 DD, $5,800 DK, $68,000 FF, $15,200 SS, $7,500 FTD

• Danny Salazar – T.J. House was scratched from his start so Danny Salazar will be on the mound for the Indians tonight. Salazar is a high strikeout pitcher with a pretty nice matchup against the Rangers who are ranked 23rd in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Salazar should get plenty of run support and he’s a huge favorite. For the price, he’s a very nice 2nd or 3rd starter tonight. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Adrian Beltre – Beltre has really hit RH pitching well this season (.385 wOBA) and he’s facing Salazar who has given up a .386 wOBA to RH hittes this season.

Additional Plays: Jim Adduci

Cleveland

Michael Brantley – All of the LH hitters are in play on the Indians tonight, but Brantley is my favorite of the bunch. He has 3 multi-hit games in his last 5 and is sporting a .413 wOBA vs. RH pitching this season.

Additional Plays: Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, Lonnie Chisenhall

Philadelphia at Washington

Philadelphia					Washington
Roberto Hernandez		Vegas Moneyline			Doug Fister		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		WAS (-220)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.211	0.678	0.309	8.7%	SP vs. Left	0.266	0.713	0.313	14.80%
SP vs. Right	0.253	0.758	0.330	19.0%	SP vs. Right	0.232	0.632	0.280	14.80%
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R		Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Roberto Hernandez – Hernandez will throw a gem every now and then, but he is extremely inconsistent and should be avoided in all cash games. While the Nationals are missing Ryan Zimmerman, they still have a stacked lineup that can put runs on the board quickly. Nationals Park is a good place to pitch, but Hernandez is a contrarian GPP play at best. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5300 FD, $10200 DD, $5800 DK, $59400 FF, $14300 SS, $10200 FTD

• Doug Fister – Fister has a 2.69 ERA on the season, but his 3.83 xFIP suggests some regression. Fister’s strikeouts have been down this season as he is only averaging 5.4 per 9 innings. That hurts his fantasy value quite a bit, but he does get a ballpark boost tonight and he does have a favorable matchup against the Phillies who are ranked 28th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Fister is in play on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8200 FD, $16050 DD, $7500 DK, $110200 FF, $22500 SS, $16050 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Chase Utley – Utley is an extremely tough out, especially against RH pitching. He has a very short, very compact swing that allows him to make a lot of contact. I don’t mind his matchup against Fister who hasn’t been pitching as well as his ERA suggests.

Additional Plays: Grady Sizemore

Washington

Bryce Harper – Hernandez has given up a higher wOBA to RH hitters this season, but has historically struggled more against LH hitters. Harper should be back in the lineup tonight and should be hitting right in the middle of the order.

Additional Plays: Wilson Ramos, Anthony Rendon

Seattle at Baltimore

Seattle					Baltimore
Roenis Elias		Vegas Moneyline			Wei-Yin Chen		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		BAL (-132)			LEFT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.196	0.651	0.292	25.9%	SP vs. Left	0.295	0.771	0.339	14.00%
SP vs. Right	0.252	0.730	0.324	20.0%	SP vs. Right	0.267	0.773	0.336	17.80%
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs L		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Roenis Elias – Elias is an exciting young lefty that owns a 4.31 ERA on the season with a K/9 of 8.0. Tonight he faces an Orioles offense that has gone cold over the last couple of weeks. That said, it’s still a tough matchup as the Orioles are ranked 9th in wOBA vs. LH pitching. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6400 FD, $12750 DD, $7600 DK, $77000 FF, $18400 SS, $12750 FTD

• Wei-Yin Chen – Chen is a very serviceable starter. He has a 3.92 ERA (3.81 xFIP) on the season with a K/9 of 6.3. He is typically an average fantasy option at best, but tonight he gets to face a Mariners offense that consists primarily of LH hitters. The Mariners are ranked 29th in wOBA vs. LH pitching which makes Chen a sneaky play tonight. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6700 FD, $13050 DD, $6500 DK, $101100 FF, $19500 SS, $13050 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Kendrys Morales – Morales hit his first XBH as a member of the Mariners last night. While he hasn’t been great, he’s been producing and he’s batting clean-up against an average LH pitcher. He offers nice value at his cheap price point.

Additional Plays: Robinson Cano

Baltimore

Nelson Cruz / Adam Jones – Both of these OF’s have crushed LH pitching this season. They both own a wOBA over .450 against southpaws and they draw a nice matchup tonight against Elias who has given up a .324 wOBA to RH hitters this season.

Additional Plays: Manny Machado

Colorado at Detroit

Colorado					Detroit
Franklin Morales		Vegas Moneyline			Justin Verlander		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		DET (-210)			RIGHT		9
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.228	0.703	0.313	13.4%	SP vs. Left	0.234	0.693	0.309	17.10%
SP vs. Right	0.310	0.943	0.409	16.2%	SP vs. Right	0.319	0.865	0.379	16.40%
Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R		Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Franklin Morales – Morales is a pitcher that I love to pick on and that will be the case again tonight. He has a 5.18 ERA (4.65 xFIP) and has given up a .409 wOBA to RH hitters this season. The Tigers lineup is full of RH hitters that excel against LH pitching. Expect the scorekeeper in Detroit to stay busy tonight. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5300 FD, $9850 DD, $5500 DK, $52600 FF, $13000 SS, $NA FTD

• Justin Verlander – This is typically the time of year when Verlander steps it up, but does he have it in him this season? We have yet to see him go into that next gear and I’m not sure that we will see it. That said, he’s a huge favorite tonight against the Rockies who are one of the worst hitting teams on the road this season. I won’t be using him in cash games, but he’s a nice GPP play against the Rockies. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7300 FD, $14300 DD, $6600 DK, $76200 FF, $16100 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Corey Dickerson – Dickerson continues to rake against RH pitching. He has a .440 wOBA against righties this season and is facing Verlander who has been very hittable this season.

Additional Plays: Justin Morneau

Detroit

Torii Hunter – You thought Miggy was going in this spot didn’t you? While I do think Miggy is one of the top overall plays on the board, Hunter offers better value. He has 6 hits over his last 3 games and a .340 wOBA vs. LH pitching this season. Don’t be afraid to take a few Tigers against Morales tonight.

Additional Plays: Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez

San Francisco at NY Mets

San Francisco					NY Mets
Ryan Vogelsong		Vegas Moneyline			Jonathon Niese		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		NYM (-120)			LEFT		7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.293	0.773	0.340	19.0%	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right	0.249	0.728	0.322	20.5%	SP vs. Right
Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs L		Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Ryan Vogelsong – Vogelsong is a very interesting play tonight against the Mets. He has pitched well in the month of July and owns an ERA under 4.00. He’s producing a low ground ball rate (38%), but he’s only giving up HR’s on 6% of fly balls this season and he should be able to keep the ball in the park tonight in Citi Field. It’s a great matchup and the price is affordable. Rating = 6

• Jonathon Niese – Niese pitches well at home. This season he owns a 2.80 ERA at Citi Field with 35 K’s over 45 innings of work. If he can pitch around Hunter Pence and Buster Posey, he should have another quality start tonight as the Giants are only ranked 19th in wOBA vs. LH pitching this season. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Buster Posey – Ever since joining the majors, Posey has been one of the best hitters in baseball against LH pitching. He owns a .383 wOBA vs. lefties this season and is 6/15 with 3 XBH’s off of Niese in his career.

Additional Plays: Hunter Pence

NY Mets

Lucas Duda – Even though I think Vogelsong is in a good spot tonight, I don’t mind taking hitters against him either. Duda finished off the month of July with 7 HR’s and a .429 wOBA.

Additional Plays: Daniel Murphy

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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