MLB Grind Down: Thursday, July 31st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-07-31 21:45:38

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Chicago White Sox at Detroit

Chicago White Sox					Detroit
John Danks		Vegas Moneyline			Drew Smyly		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		DET (-185)			LEFT		9
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.274	0.787	0.344	11.90%	SP vs. Left	0.176	0.461	0.206	27.30%
SP vs. Right	0.266	0.787	0.343	17.00%	SP vs. Right	0.275	0.807	0.351	21.00%
Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs L		Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• John Danks – We have a split slate of games today with 3 day games and then 8 evening games. The first game of the day is between the White Sox and the Tigers. Danks will be on the mound with his 4.40 ERA (4.63 xFIP) and a K/9 of 6.3. Those are pretty pedestrian numbers and Danks is walking over 3 batters per 9 innings. It also doesn’t help that he’s facing a Tigers offense that is ranked 2nd in wOBA vs. LH pitching this season. Target the Tigers side of this matchup. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6300 FD, $12750 DD, $6500 DK, $71500 FF, $18200 SS, $NA FTD

• Drew Smyly – The White Sox are going with a RH heavy lineup today against Smyly and for good reason. He’s held LH hitters to a .201 wOBA this season. Smyly hasn’t had nearly as much success against RH hitters though as he’s given up a .378 wOBA to righties. Smyly has a respectable K/9 of 7.80 and should see plenty of run support. With limited options in the early slate, he’s not a bad play. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6900 FD, $12550 DD, $7000 DK, $83000 FF, $19700 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Jose Abreu – Most of Abreu’s HR’s have come against RH pitching, but he’s still had nice power against lefties. Abreu has a .389 wOBA vs. southpaws this season and draws a nice matchup against Smyly, who as mentioned above, struggles against RH hitters.

Additional Plays: Dayan Viciedo, Alexei Ramirez

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera – With only 3 day games, it may not be a bad idea to stack the Tigers against Danks. They are in a great spot and really hit LH pitching well as a team. Miggy is the top play in the early slate if you can find a way to get him into your lineup. He has historically crushed LH pitching at home and he’s been locked in lately.

Additional Plays: Victor Martinez, Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, Austin Jackson

Colorado at Chicago Cubs

Colorado					Chicago Cubs
Pedro Hernandez		Vegas Moneyline			Jake Arrieta		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		CHC (-170)			RIGHT		8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.290	0.705	0.306	23.8%	SP vs. Left	0.194	0.602	0.271	22.50%
SP vs. Right	0.348	1.031	0.439	7.0%	SP vs. Right	0.214	0.613	0.276	24.00%
Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R		Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Pedro Hernandez – The Rockies will call up Hernandez from Triple-A to start today’s game against the Cubs. Hernandez has an ERA over 6.00 in the minors this season and can safely be avoided in all league formats. The Cubs are actually very good against LH pitching ranking 4th in all of baseball in wOBA vs. southpaws. Rating = 3

Salaries: $ FD, $NA DD, $NA DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Jake Arrieta – Arrieta is the lone bright spot left in the Cubs starting rotation. He owns a 2.18 ERA (2.76 xFIP) this season with a K/9 of 9.8. He’s facing a Rockies team that is one of the worst offenses on the road this season and he gets to face them without Tulo in the lineup. The only issue here is that there is a strong wind blowing out to right-center in Wrigley, but I still think he’s the top pitching option in the early slate. Rating = 7

Salaries: $7700 FD, $17250 DD, $9200 DK, $103700 FF, $26800 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Corey Dickerson – Arrieta has been dominant this season, but we do have a wind that’s blowing out to right-center which really puts the LH hitters of the Rockies in play today. Dickerson owns a .445 wOBA vs. RH pitching this season.

Additional Plays: Justin Morneau

Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo – This isn’t your typical lefty/lefty matchup. First off, Rizzo has crushed LH pitching this season. He owns a .425 wOBA vs. lefties this season which is a full 40 points higher than his wOBA vs. righties. We also have a strong wind blowing out to right.

Additional Plays: Justin Ruggiano, Starlin Castro, Emilio Bonifacio (if in the lineup)

St. Louis at San Diego

St. Louis					San Diego
Shelby Miller		Vegas Moneyline			Odrisamer Despaigne		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		SDP (-115)			RIGHT		7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.265	0.773	0.341	18.5%	SP vs. Left	0.200	0.611	0.283	11.60%
SP vs. Right	0.216	0.630	0.283	21.4%	SP vs. Right	0.189	0.527	0.249	14.50%
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R		Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SDP vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Shelby Miller – A matchup against the Padres in Petco is typically automatic for starting pitchers, but the Padres have been much better offensively. Who would have thought that the cure to their offensive blues was Yangervis Solarte. Ever since he’s joined the team, the Padres seem to be scoring runs in bunches. Now, before we get too carried away, let’s remember that this is still the worst offense in baseball and Miller will face them in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball. In the early slate, he is your top pitching option behind Arrieta. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $5500 FD, $11100 DD, $5500 DK, $53000 FF, $15000 SS, $NA FTD

• Odrisamer Despaigne – In his first 6 starts, Despaigne has a 1.66 ERA. The peripheral stats don’t line up though as he has a pedestrian xFIP of 4.60. His BABIP of .221 is not going to hold up over the course of the season and I expect to see some regression starting today against the Cardinals. Despaigne is not a high strikeout pitcher, but he does have the ballpark boost in his favor. I’d much rather take Miller in this matchup. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5700 FD, $12400 DD, $6300 DK, $82000 FF, $20400 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Matt Adams – Adams is batting .348 with a .396 wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. As mentioned above, the peripheral stats on Despaigne don’t look great. Adams makes a nice value play at 1B.

Additional Plays: Matt Carpenter, Jhonny Peralta

San Diego

Yangervis Solarte – Solarte has been swinging a hot bat, he’s batting in the middle of the order, he’s very cheap on most DFS sites, and he has a favorable matchup against Miller who has struggled against LH hitters this season.

Additional Plays: Seth Smith

LA Angels at Baltimore

LA Angels					Baltimore
Tyler Skaggs		Vegas Moneyline			Bud Norris		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		LAA (-114)			RIGHT		9
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.280	0.734	0.318	16.7%	SP vs. Left	0.290	0.836	0.366	15.80%
SP vs. Right	0.248	0.712	0.314	19.1%	SP vs. Right	0.237	0.657	0.295	22.10%
Batter Splits	LAA BvP		LAA vs R		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Tyler Skaggs – Skaggs has a 4.49 ERA on the season, but his xFIP is almost a full run lower which suggests that he’s pitching well this season. Skaggs has always been considered a high strikeout pitcher, but he’s only averaging 6.6 K’s per 9 innings this season. Tonight he draws a tough matchup against the Orioles who have a few hitters in their lineup that feast on LH pitching. I’ll be avoiding him tonight. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6100 FD, $12850 DD, $6200 DK, $66700 FF, $16800 SS, $12850 FTD

• Bud Norris – Norris is not a recommended fantasy option tonight. It’s not about you Norris, it’s about your opponent. The Angels are ranked 9th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season and the total is set at 9.0 runs. There is more downside than upside for Norris in this matchup. Look for the LH hitters in the Angels lineup to knock him around a bit. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6900 FD, $11900 DD, $6800 DK, $82400 FF, $18000 SS, $11900 FTD

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Kole Calhoun – I really like Hamilton here as well, but Calhoun has been a much more consistent fantasy option this season so he will get the nod as the top play. Norris has struggled with LH hitters throughout his career and Calhoun continues to rake against righties in that leadoff spot.

Additional Plays: Josh Hamilton, Mike Trout

Baltimore

Adam Jones – Skaggs has actually given up a higher wOBA to LH hitters this season, but Jones is still in a terrific spot. He is batting .396 with .504 wOBA against LH pitching this season. He is one of the top OF plays on the board tonight.

Additional Plays: Nelson Cruz, Manny Machado

Seattle at Cleveland

Seattle					Cleveland
Chris Young		Vegas Moneyline			Zach McAllister		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CLE (-130)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.235	0.745	0.328	14.3%	SP vs. Left	0.252	0.746	0.329	18.00%
SP vs. Right	0.178	0.572	0.252	17.0%	SP vs. Right	0.265	0.745	0.326	17.90%
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Chris Young – Young is in a tough spot tonight. He’s pitched well at times this season, but doesn’t have a high K-rate (5.6 K’s per 9 innings). Tonight he travels to Cleveland to take on an Indians offense that is ranked 5th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Young has already given up 18 HR’s on the season and is playing in a ballpark that has been kind to LH power hitters. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6800 FD, $14600 DD, $7400 DK, $95200 FF, $21500 SS, $14600 FTD

• Zach McAllister – McAllister has not been a great fantasy option this season. He has a 5.65 ERA and he’s walking close to 4 batters per 9 innings. It’s not all bad though as his xFIP is at 4.23 and he’s averaging 7.6 K’s per 9 innings. McAllister has been pretty decent at home this season and has a great matchup against the Mariners who are ranked 22nd in wOBA vs. RH pitching. At his price point, I think he’s in play on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $5300 FD, $8650 DD, $4700 DK, $50100 FF, $13000 SS, $8650 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Kyle Seager – Seager has great discipline and great power vs. RH pitching. I like the matchup tonight against McAllister in a ballpark that favors LH power hitters.

Additional Plays: Robinson Cano

Cleveland

Carlos Santana – Santana is my pick to hit a HR tonight. As mentioned above, Young has already given up 18 HR’s this season. Santana has hit 8 HR’s in the month of July and most of his power comes from the left side of the plate.

Additional Plays: Michael Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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