MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 26th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Washington at Philadelphia
| Washington | Philadelphia | ||||||||
| Gio Gonzalez | Vegas Moneyline | Cole Hamels | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | WAS (-112) | LEFT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.219 | 0.649 | 0.295 | 27.70% | SP vs. Left | 0.221 | 0.607 | 0.278 | 20.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.684 | 0.307 | 24.40% | SP vs. Right | 0.235 | 0.656 | 0.291 | 25.10% |
| Batter Splits | WSN BvP  | WSN vs L | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Gio Gonzalez – This should be one of the better pitcher duels on the schedule tonight. Gonzalez owns a 3.83 ERA (3.48 xFIP) with a K/9 of 9.5. His biggest issue is that he gives up a lot of walks. He’s averaging 3.75 walks per 9 innings which have cost him in quite a few occasions this season. Other than the potential walks, I can’t find anything wrong with the Gonzalez play tonight. He does draw a favorable matchup against the Phillies who are ranked 22nd in wOBA vs. LH pitching this season. Rating = 7
Salaries: $8800 FD, $15550 DD, $8700 DK, $NA FF, $19800 SS, $15600 FTD
- Cole Hamels – Hamels is coming off of two subpar starts by his standards. He has given up 6 earned runs while only striking out 9 batters during those two starts. On the season he owns a 2.53 ERA (3.22 xFIP) with a K/9 of 8.9. He’s held batters from both sides of the plate under a .295 wOBA and he pitched well against the Nationals the last time that he faced them (7 IP, 0 ER, 5 K’s). He’s a great play on multi-pitcher sites, but he may have a tough time getting the win. Rating = 7.5
Salaries: $9700 FD, $20650 DD, $10800 DK, $ FF, $25300 SS, $20650 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Washington
While the Nationals do hit LH pitching well, we have a full slate of games on tap tonight and there are much better matchups to exploit. Avoid the Nats hitters against Cole Hamels.
Philadelphia
The same goes for the Phillies. With all of the other games on the schedule, you can find better matchups. I’ll be avoiding all Phillies hitters against Gio Gonzalez.
St. Louis at Pittsburgh
| St. Louis | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
| Lance Lynn | Vegas Moneyline | Gerrit Cole | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | PIT (-134) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.234 | 0.665 | 0.302 | 18.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.736 | 0.330 | 20.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.237 | 0.634 | 0.283 | 23.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.711 | 0.317 | 22.20% |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Lance Lynn – Lynn has been terrific since the start of July. During that stretch, he has posted an ERA of 1.73 with 53 K’s over 57 innings of work. He does have better splits at home, but he’s still pitched well on the road with a 3.45 ERA. This is a great example of a hot pitcher that is facing a hot offense. The Pirates are the 5th best offense over the last 30 days of play and are ranked 3rd in wOBA vs. RH pitching. I wouldn’t rule Lynn out for tournaments, but there are safer plays in cash games. Rating = 6
Salaries: $8500 FD, $17950 DD, $8800 DK, $NA FF, $23800 SS, $17950 FTD
- Gerrit Cole – In his first start in nearly 6 weeks, Cole gave up 2 earned runs while striking out 6 batters over 7 innings of work. He showed very little signs of rust and the Pirates let him throw 97 pitches. That means that we don’t have to worry about a potential pitch count tonight as they will likely stretch him out a little more and let him throw 100+ pitches. Cole is averaging over 8 K’s per 9 innings this season and I don’t mind the matchup against the Cardinals who are ranked 17th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $8100 FD, $16050 DD, $9000 DK, $ FF, $20600 SS, $16050 FTD
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
Matt Adams – While I do expect Cole to pitch well tonight, I think Adams still makes a solid value play at 1B. Cole has given up a .330 wOBA to LH hitters this season and Adams has been crushing LH pitching to a tune of a .326 batting average and .375 wOBA.
Additional Plays: None
Pittsburgh
Neil Walker – Lynn has really pitched well over the last couple of months, but has historically struggled vs. LH hitters. Walker has much more power from the left side of the plate and has a decent track record against Lynn (8/26 with 5 XBH’s).
Additional Plays: None
Tampa Bay at Baltimore
| Tampa Bay | Baltimore | ||||||||
| Alex Cobb | Vegas Moneyline | Wei-Yin Chen | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | BAL (-108) | LEFT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.204 | 0.582 | 0.261 | 21.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.280 | 0.712 | 0.315 | 16.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.252 | 0.660 | 0.300 | 24.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.260 | 0.758 | 0.329 | 18.90% |
| Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs L | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Alex Cobb – Cobb has been dominant in his last 6 starts. During that stretch he has only given up a combined 4 earned runs while striking out 46 batters. You know you are pitching well when you have a 11.5 to 1 K/ER ratio. Cobb has lowered his ERA to 3.01 on the season with a K/9 of 8.5. While his matchup against the Orioles isn’t the best on the board, the Orioles are ranked 11th vs. RH pitching and 13th in home wOBA. Cobb makes a solid tournament play. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $8600 FD, $16600 DD, $9600 DK, $NA FF, $26000 SS, $16300 FTD
- Wei-Yin Chen – Chen typically isn’t a high strikeout pitcher, but he’s been racking up the K’s in his recent starts. Over his last 5 games he has given up a combined 9 earned runs while striking out 45 batters. His recent spike in strikeouts have made him a serious candidate every time he takes the mound. He makes a nice contrarian play tonight against Rays who are ranked 10th in wOBA vs. LH pitching. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7300 FD, $14000 DD, $7800 DK, $ FF, $20100 SS, $14000 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
Evan Longoria – Longo has not hit Chen well in the past, but it’s still an extremely small sample size. I’m going to trust the matchup more than the BvP. Chen has given up a .329 wOBA to RH hitters this season and Longo has always mashed LH pitching.
Additional Plays: Sean Rodriguez
Baltimore
There aren’t any plays that stand out on the Orioles tonight. Alex Cobb has held hitters from both sides of the plate under a .300 wOBA this season and he’s been dominant in his last 6 starts.
Boston at Toronto
| Boston | Toronto | ||||||||
| Rubby De La Rosa | Vegas Moneyline | R.A. Dickey | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TOR (-135) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.284 | 0.838 | 0.363 | 14.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.241 | 0.729 | 0.327 | 18.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.256 | 0.743 | 0.330 | 21.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.247 | 0.748 | 0.327 | 20.00% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Rubby De La Rosa – De La Rosa has pitched well for most of the season, but he has given up 8 earned runs over his last 2 starts and is going to have his hands full with his start tonight against the Blue Jays in the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays are still ranked #1 in wOBA vs. RH pitching and are one of the best offenses in baseball when they are playing at home. Rubby tends to walk too many batters (3.4 per 9 innings) which can really hurt against an offense like the Blue Jays. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6600 FD, $11200 DD, $5300 DK, $NA FF, $16200 SS, $NA FTD
- R.A. Dickey – Dickey is a very inconsistent fantasy option and basically everyone in the industry knows it. You rarely see Dickey on any cash game lineups these days and rightly so. On the season he owns a 4.08 ERA (4.11 xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.5. He’s only producing a 42% ground ball rate and is giving up 1.17 HR’s per 9 innings. He has a pretty average matchup against the Red Sox and it’s very likely that I will have zero exposure to him tonight. Rating = 4
Salaries: $7400 FD, $14200 DD, $7900 DK, $ FF, $18500 SS, $14200 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Boston
Yoenis Cespedes – Cespedes doesn’t hit for a high average, but you can make the argument that he’s playing his best baseball of the entire season. In his last 10 games, he’s gone 11/36 with 9 RBI’s and 5 runs. I like the matchup against Dickey and I always like taking hitters in the Rogers Centre.
Additional Plays: Brock Holt, David Ortiz (if he’s back in the lineup)
Toronto
Adam Lind – With Matt Adams price slowly going up, Lind is becoming the new popular kid on the block when you are looking for a value play at 1B. He’s extremely cheap on both FD and DK and draws a terrific matchup against De La Rosa who has given up a .363 wOBA to LH hitters.
Additional Plays: Jose Reyes, Colby Rasmus, Melky Cabrera
NY Yankees at Detroit
| NY Yankees | Detroit | ||||||||
| Brandon McCarthy | Vegas Moneyline | Rick Porcello | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | DET (-117) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.300 | 0.763 | 0.336 | 21.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.250 | 0.673 | 0.298 | 13.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.260 | 0.715 | 0.309 | 21.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.242 | 0.649 | 0.285 | 17.80% |
| Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Brandon McCarthy – McCarthy owns a 4.01 ERA on the season, but his xFIP of 2.67 tells a much different story. He had some terrible luck during his time as a member of the Diamondbacks, but since the trade to the Yankees, he has flourished. Since the start of July, McCarthy owns an ERA just north of 2.00 with 57 K’s over 57 innings of work. He’s no longer a pitcher that you want to pick on when you are choosing your hitters. All of that said, I will not be targeting him tonight against the Tigers who are great at home and who are ranked 5th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7600 FD, $15550 DD, $8300 DK, $NA FF, $22900 SS, $15100 FTD
- Rick Porcello – Porcello, much like McCarthy, is a much better pitcher than most people think. He’s had a career year with a 3.10 ERA and a K/9 of 5.4. He walks very few batters, gives up very few HR’s, and produces a solid 49% ground ball rate. We typically like to see a higher strikeout rate with our starting pitchers though. That, combined with the fact that the Yankees make great contact puts Porcello as a mediocre fantasy option tonight. Rating = 5
Salaries: $8200 FD, $14650 DD, $7200 DK, $ FF, $20300 SS, $14650 FTD
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
Jacoby Ellsbury – Ellsbury has a lot of factors in his favor tonight. He’s hit Porcello well in the past (8/13 with 2 HR’s), Porcello has historically struggled vs. LH hitters, and Ellsbury has been swinging a hot bat with 4 multi-hit games in his last 7.
Additional Plays: Carlos Beltran, Stephen Drew
Detroit
Torii Hunter – The BvP fans should rejoice with this pick. Hunter has really hit McCarthy well in the past going 8/19 with 4 XBH’s. Hunter is also swinging a pretty hot bat with 12 hits, 6 RBI’s and 5 runs over his last 10 games.
Additional Plays: Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera