MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, July 22nd
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Texas at NY Yankees
| Texas | NY Yankees | ||||||||
| Nick Martinez | Vegas Moneyline | Chase Whitley | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | NYY (-164) | RIGHT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.321 | 0.948 | 0.413 | 9.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.328 | 0.860 | 0.380 | 15.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.287 | 0.810 | 0.348 | 10.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.296 | 0.719 | 0.331 | 14.9% |
| Batter Splits | TEX BvP  | TEX vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Nick Martinez – Martinez has struggled in his rookie campaign. He is sporting a 5.10 ERA and the peripheral pitching stats are even worse as he has a 5.88 xFIP and a negative WAR. The biggest red flag that I see here is that Martinez is walking more batters per 9 innings (4.16) than he is striking out batters (3.90). The Yankees LH hitters should have a field day with Martinez on the mound. Rating = 3
Salaries: $5000 FD, $8950 DD, $4600 DK, $40000 FF, $13000 SS, $5050 FTD
- Chase Whitley – Whitley has also struggled in his rookie season with a 5.10 ERA, but the difference between he and Martinez is that his xFIP (3.97) is actually much lower than his ERA which means he has either had some bad luck, bad defense, or both. Whitley’s K/9 is much better than Martinez as he is averaging 6.59 per 9 innings. His BABIP of .352 will not hold up over the course of the season so expect his numbers to get better as the season progresses. Whitley is a decent value play on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5
Salaries: $5000 FD, $9600 DD, $4700 DK, $52600 FF, $13000 SS, $8300 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Texas
Shin-Soo Choo – Choo hasn’t had a great season, but I like him tonight for two reasons. First, he has a nice matchup against Whitley who has given up a .376 wOBA to LH hitters this season. The second is that he is playing in Yankee Stadium which is extremely friendly to LH hitters (just ask Curtis Granderson now that he plays in Citi Field).
Additional Plays:
NY Yankees
Jacoby Ellsbury – Ellsbury has come out of the All-Star Break on fire. Over the last 7 days, he’s gone 8/16 with 2 HR’s and 3 stolen bases. He draws a terrific matchup against Martinez who has given up a .416 wOBA to LH hitters this season. The short porch in right field in Yankee Stadium only solidifies the play.
Additional Plays: Brett Gardner, Brian McCann, Kelly Johnson, Brian Roberts
San Francisco at Philadelphia
| San Francisco | Philadelphia | ||||||||
| Yusmeiro Petit | Vegas Moneyline | Roberto Hernandez | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | SFG (-120) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.752 | 0.341 | 18.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.279 | 0.830 | 0.376 | 14.7% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.246 | 0.619 | 0.273 | 28.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.264 | 0.702 | 0.325 | 19.2% |
| Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SFG vs R | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Yusmeiro Petit – Petit will get the start for Matt Cain who was placed on the DL with an elbow injury. Petit has really pitched well out of the bullpen this season, but hasn’t been able to have that same success as a starter. In 26 innings as a starter, he’s posted a 5.81 ERA while giving up a .334 wOBA to opposing batters. While the matchup against the Phillies is a favorable one, I don’t see a ton of value here. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5400 FD, $8150 DD, $7600 DK, $NA FF, $14000 SS, $NA FTD
- Roberto Hernandez – Hernandez is coming off of one of his best starts of the season. He threw 8 strong innings while striking out 3 batters and only giving up 1 earned run against the Brewers in Milwaukee. It was a surprising start, but that’s what we’ve come to expect with Hernandez: inconsistency. Hernandez has a bad K/BB ratio and an xFIP of 4.66. The one thing that he has going for him is that he is facing the Giants who are ranked 25th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5200 FD, $10200 DD, $6100 DK, $60000 FF, $13400 SS, $18100 FTD
Batter Grind Down
San Francisco
Hunter Pence – We typically like to target LH hitters against Hernandez, but he’s been equally inept against RH hitters this season. Pence hits RH pitching well (.351 wOBA) and may be batting lead-off again which can often lead to an extra at-bat.
Additional Plays: Buster Posey
Philadelphia
Chase Utley – Avoid all RH batters in this Phillies lineup tonight as Petit has held them to a .229 wOBA this season. He has struggled vs. LH hitters though and Utley makes a nice play at 2B, especially in cash games.
Additional Plays: Ryan Howard
LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh
| LA Dodgers | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
| Josh Beckett | Vegas Moneyline | Vance Worley | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | PIT (-115) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.251 | 0.755 | 0.338 | 22.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.343 | 0.937 | 0.414 | 11.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.210 | 0.607 | 0.277 | 22.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.320 | 0.787 | 0.351 | 13.5% |
| Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LAD vs R | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Josh Beckett – Beckett is having a resurgent season, but a lot of that has had to due with a little bit of luck and some good defense behind him. His BABIP this season is at an incredibly low .235 and he has an 86% LOB percentage. Both of these are going to be hard to keep up for the remainder of the season. Tonight he faces the Pirates who are ranked 7th in wOBA against RH pitching. I think the Bucco’s knock him around a bit tonight. Rating = 4
Salaries: $8300 FD, $17000 DD, $8500 DK, $111200 FF, $23700 SS, $10450 FTD
- Vance Worley – Worley has pitched pretty well so far this season. He’s sporting a 3.38 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP. He’s also pitching in the friendly confines of PNC Park. Worley’s value directly hinges on the health of Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig. If both are out of the lineup again tonight, Worley could make an interesting contrarian play. Rating = 5
Salaries: $5600 FD, $10600 DD, $6900 DK, $44000 FF, $20800 SS, $9100 FTD
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers
Dee Gordon – I always like taking Gordon against RH pitching because he’s a threat to steal a base every time he gets on first. Gordon stole his 45th base of the season last night and will look to add to that total tonight.
Additional Plays: Adrian Gonzalez
Pittsburgh
Neil Walker – Walker has been red hot in the month of July, especially over the last week. He’s gone 7/12 with 2 XBH’s since the All-Star Break and should be batting clean-up tonight against Beckett. His price around the industry has yet to reflect his recent level of production.
Additional Plays: Gregory Polanco
Boston at Toronto
| Boston | Toronto | ||||||||
| Jake Peavy | Vegas Moneyline | J.A. Happ | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TOR (-110) | LEFT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.251 | 0.763 | 0.336 | 19.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.280 | 0.804 | 0.356 | 20.7% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.255 | 0.710 | 0.314 | 19.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.257 | 0.742 | 0.328 | 17.9% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs L | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jake Peavy – Peavy is an easy avoid for me tonight. Not only is he pitching in the Rogers Centre (one of the more hitter friendly ballparks in baseball), but he faces a Blue Jays offense that is ranked 1st overall in wOBA against RH pitching. Peavy’s 5.73 road ERA only hurts his cause even more. Rating = 3
Salaries: $6200 FD, $12700 DD, $7000 DK, $59200 FF, $17600 SS, $7750 FTD
- J.A. Happ – The Red Sox offense is finally starting to hit and I will not be wasting any roster spots on J.A. Happ hoping that he can quiet these Red Sox bats down. Happ is an extremely inconsistent pitcher and he’s given up a .342+ wOBA to both LH and RH hitters this season. Target the Red Sox side of this matchup. Rating = 3
Salaries: $6000 FD, $10350 DD, $5500 DK, $73400 FF, $15800 SS, $10350 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Boston
Dustin Pedroia – Pedroia may be the top 2B play of the night, but there are plenty of options at that position as we’ve already highlighted a few in the Grind Down. Pedroia has always hit LH pitching well and is playing in the Rogers Centre which is a great hitter’s park for both LH and RH batters.
Additional Plays: Mike Napoli, David Ortiz
Toronto
Jose Reyes – Reyes has been terrific at home all season long. He has a .360 wOBA at home compared to a .283 wOBA away from the Rogers Centre. He draws a nice matchup against Jake Peavy who has given up a .336 wOBA to LH hitters since the start of 2013.
Additional Plays: Melky Cabrera, Dioner Navarro
Miami at Atlanta
| Miami | Atlanta | ||||||||
| Jacob Turner | Vegas Moneyline | Mike Minor | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | ATL (-185) | LEFT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.266 | 0.741 | 0.337 | 11.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.252 | 0.673 | 0.299 | 23.7% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.301 | 0.794 | 0.354 | 18.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.246 | 0.708 | 0.313 | 21.4% |
| Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs L | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jacob Turner – Turner was once a top prospect, but that seems like ages ago now. In 9 starts this season, he’s posted a 6.83 ERA with a fairly low K/9 of 6.22. He’s not a recommended fantasy option until he can prove that he can stick around in a major league rotation. Rating = 3
Salaries: $5000 FD, $9150 DD, $5400 DK, $NA FF, $13000 SS, $11500 FTD
- Mike Minor – Minor is one of the biggest favorites on the schedule tonight and with very few pitching options, he should be a fairly popular play. Minor is facing the Marlins who are one of the worst road offenses in baseball. The Marlins also strike out more than any team in baseball not named the Astros. Minor’s xFIP (3.61) is a full run lower than his ERA (4.86) and his K/9 is very respectable at 8.53. If he can pitch around Stanton, he should have an excellent outing. Rating = 7.5
Salaries: $7100 FD, $13200 DD, $7700 DK, $72300 FF, $21300 SS, $7500 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Miami
Giancarlo Stanton – At this point, everyone should know that Stanton mashes LH pitching. He owns a .498 wOBA against southpaws this season and has already taken Minor deep 4 times in only 19 career at bats against him.
Additional Plays: None
Atlanta
Freddie Freeman – Freeman continues to rake against RH pitching and tonight’s matchup against Turner will have him licking his chops. Turner has given up a .356 wOBA to LH hitters this season. Freeman is a recommended play in all league formats.
Additional Plays: Jason Heyward, Chris Johnson
MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2
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