MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, July 29th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-07-29 21:33:34

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

LA Angels at Baltimore

LA Angels					Baltimore
Jered Weaver		Vegas Moneyline			Chris Tillman		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		LAA (-113)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.242	0.665	0.299	19.9%	SP vs. Left	0.252	0.728	0.326	17.5%
SP vs. Right	0.219	0.638	0.288	17.0%	SP vs. Right	0.232	0.703	0.310	20.2%
Batter Splits	LAA BvP		LAA vs R		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jered Weaver – Weaver has pitched well this season, but he’s had some bad road splits. His ERA on the road is a full 2 runs higher than that of his ERA at home. Weaver is a fly ball pitcher that will be pitching in Camden Yards which is a little more friendly to hitters than Angel Stadium. The Orioles are ranked 11th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Weaver’s price isn’t cheap enough to justify taking him on the road in a tough match-up. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7800 FD, $15500 DD, $8700 DK, $105900 FF, $23600 SS, $15500 FTD

• Chris Tillman – Tillman owns a 3.92 ERA on the season, but his 4.72 xFIP suggests some regression during the final stretch of the season. Tillman has a low K-rate (5.7 per 9) and a high walk rate (3.5 per 9) and he’s facing an Angels’ offense that is ranked 8th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Tillman may be cheap, but there are better values if you want to save salary cap space at pitcher. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6100 FD, $11800 DD, $6400 DK, $70600 FF, $16800 SS, $11800 FTD

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Mike Trout – Trout may be the best dual-threat player in baseball. He has 24 HR’s and 10 SB’s this season and draws a favorable matchup against Tillman tonight. Trout has been very good against RH pitching this season with a .424 wOBA.

Additional Plays: Kole Calhoun

Baltimore

Adam Jones – Jones is typically targeted vs. LH pitchers, but I think Weaver struggles a bit tonight and Jones has a decent track record against him. He’s gone 6/20 with 3 XBH’s off of Weaver in his career.

Additional Plays: Chris Davis

Seattle at Cleveland

Seattle					Cleveland
Hisashi Iwakuma		Vegas Moneyline			Trevor Bauer		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		SEA (-108)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.238	0.630	0.277	19.1%	SP vs. Left	0.250	0.744	0.337	19.5%
SP vs. Right	0.216	0.616	0.273	23.6%	SP vs. Right	0.279	0.764	0.334	21.4%
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Hisashi Iwakuma – Iwakuma had a bad outing against the Orioles in his last start, but still owns a 3.09 ERA on the season (2.86 xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.2. Iwakuma has been missing a lot more bats over his few starts which is evidenced by his 33 K’s over his last 35 innings. His matchup tonight isn’t going to be an easy one though. The Indians are ranked 3rd in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Iwakuma’s upside make him a nice contrarian play. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8600 FD, $18050 DD, $9400 DK, $113100 FF, $26800 SS, $18050 FTD

• Trevor Bauer – Bauer may be the top value play at pitcher tonight. On the season, he owns a 3.93 ERA (3.86 xFIP) to go along with his K/9 of 8.7. You aren’t going to find many pitchers in his price range with the K-potential that Bauer possesses. Bauer has pitched well at home this season and is facing a Mariners’ offense that is ranked 21st against RH pitching this season. Bauer typically doesn’t pitch deep into games, but I think 6+ innings with 6+ K’s isn’t out of the question tonight. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $6500 FD, $13850 DD, $6500 DK, $91200 FF, $20800 SS, $13850 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Robinson Cano – Bauer’s biggest struggle this season has been against LH hitters. He’s given up a .343 wOBA to lefties and Cano is one of the better hitting lefties in baseball. Cano is sporting a .388 wOBA vs. RH pitching this season.

Additional Plays: Kyle Seager

Cleveland

Carlos Santana – You could easily avoid all Indians tonight against Iwakuma, but you may want to ride the hot hand of Santana. In the month of July he’s batting .314 with a wOBA of .458. Santana has already hit 8 HR’s in the month as well.

Additional Plays: None

Chicago White Sox at Detroit

Chicago White Sox					Detroit
Jose Quintana		Vegas Moneyline			Anibal Sanchez		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		DET (-160)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.246	0.674	0.299	22.4%	SP vs. Left	0.231	0.621	0.279	24.4%
SP vs. Right	0.242	0.660	0.296	20.2%	SP vs. Right	0.213	0.571	0.259	24.0%
Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs R		Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jose Quintana – Quintana is the pitcher that no one ever seems to talk about. On the season he has posted a 3.15 ERA that is backed by his 3.28 xFIP. He’s averaging over 8 K’s per 9 innings and has only given up 0.41 HR’s per 9 innings. To sum it up, he’s getting batters out and keeping the ball in the park. That’s what you like to see from a pitcher. The issue here isn’t with Quintana, it’s with his matchup against the Tigers who are ranked 3rd in wOBA vs. LH pitching this season. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $7700 FD, $16000 DD, $8200 DK, $97400 FF, $24500 SS, $16000 FTD

• Anibal Sanchez – Sanchez has had a month to forget. In the month of July, he has a 6.12 ERA while giving up a .312 batting average and a .352 wOBA to his opponents. His strikeouts have also been down as he’s only struck out 15 batters all month. I expect him to turn things around shortly, but he’s currently trending in the wrong direction and the White Sox hit RH pitching well as they are ranked 10th in baseball. Sanchez is cheap, but a little too risky to use in cash games. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7300 FD, $14050 DD, $7500 DK, $74400 FF, $21600 SS, $14050 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Adam Eaton – Sanchez doesn’t give up many HR’s. He’s only given up 4 HR’s all season so if you are targeting any White Sox tonight, don’t count on any HR’s (which hurts Jose Abreu value). Instead, target the high OBP guys like Eaton.

Additional Plays: Alexei Ramirez

Detroit

Victor Martinez – I like the power bats of the Tigers tonight, but don’t get too carried away with the Tigers’ offense as Quintana has held both LH and RH hitters under a .285 wOBA this season. That said, V-Mart has one of the best wOBA’s vs. LH pitching in all of baseball at .503.

Additional Plays: Miguel Cabrera

Washington at Miami

Washington					Miami
Stephen Strasburg		Vegas Moneyline			Henderson Alvarez		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		WAS (-145)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.224	0.623	0.285	23.3%	SP vs. Left	0.271	0.698	0.312	13.7%
SP vs. Right	0.236	0.620	0.286	30.5%	SP vs. Right	0.247	0.602	0.281	14.9%
Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R		Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Stephen Strasburg – What to do with Strasburg on the road? That is the question that everyone in the community will be asking themselves tonight. Personally, I’ve been avoiding Strasburg on the road for the last two seasons and it has largely paid off. In 2014, Strasburg has a 5.09 ERA on the road while giving up a .353 wOBA to opponents. Strasburg will have the big Marlins Park at his back, but until he can pitch well on the road consistently, I’m not going to pay up for him in these situations. Rating = 7

Salaries: $9400 FD, $18450 DD, $9500 DK, $95700 FF, $27600 SS, $17500 FTD

• Henderson Alvarez – Alvarez is one of those pitchers that you just have a hard time trusting his numbers. He has an impressive 2.62 ERA this season and even though his 3.51 xFIP suggests some regression, that’s still a solid xFIP. The reason why Alvarez has a low % of ownership is his K-rate. He’s only averaging 5.4 per 9 innings. I’d like to recommend him, but I’d much rather take Trevor Bauer who is at a similar price point. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7500 FD, $13100 DD, $6800 DK, $76300 FF, $19900 SS, $13100 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Adam LaRoche – LaRoche is always in play against RH pitching, especially on FD where he is still listed under $3,000. LaRoche has a .386 wOBA vs. righties this season and has 3 multi-hit games in his last 8 outings.

Additional Plays: Anthony Rendon

Miami

Giancarlo Stanton – Stanton has two things in his favor tonight. First, he’ll be facing Strasburg away from Nationals Park. And second, he has a great track record against Strasburg. Stanton is 9/26 with 7 XBH’s (3 HR’s) against Strasburg in his career.

Additional Plays: Christian Yelich

Toronto at Boston

Toronto					Boston
Marcus Stroman		Vegas Moneyline			Rubby De La Rosa		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		BOS (-110)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.227	0.671	0.300	20.8%	SP vs. Left	0.232	0.700	0.308	18.7%
SP vs. Right	0.277	0.649	0.287	20.8%	SP vs. Right	0.257	0.715	0.319	17.4%
Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Marcus Stroman – Stroman has had an excellent rookie season, especially when you factor in the ballparks in which he has to pitch in playing for Toronto. Stroman has a 3.21 ERA (3.36 xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.9. His price across the industry is a little higher than I’d like to see, but he does carry some value as a tournament play tonight against the extremely inconsistent Red Sox. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7000 FD, $13900 DD, $8100 DK, $124200 FF, $23100 SS, $13900 FTD

• Rubby De La Rosa – De La Rosa has good numbers on the season, but is not a recommended play tonight against the Blue Jays who put up 14 runs in last night’s game. De La Rosa is giving up 1.1 HR’s per 9 innings and will have his hands full with a Blue Jays’ offense that is ranked 1st in all of baseball in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $6600 FD, $12300 DD, $6200 DK, $46000 FF, $20300 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Melky Cabrera – Cabrera continues to rake and he continues to have low ownership % night after night. Melky has a .370 wOBA vs. RH pitching, he has 18 hits over his last 10 games, and he has a solid matchup against De La Rosa who has given up a .362 wOBA to LH hitters.

Additional Plays: Jose Reyes, Colby Rasmus

Boston

Shane Victorino – I was tempted to put Ortiz here, but he has not hit well at Fenway this season (.234 batting average with only 6 HR’s). Instead, I’ll go with Victorino who has 11 hits over his last 8 games.

Additional Plays: None

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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