MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 27th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
St. Louis at Pittsburgh
| St. Louis | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
| Adam Wainwright | Vegas Moneyline | Jeff Locke | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | STL (-138) | LEFT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.238 | 0.619 | 0.274 | 20.70% | SP vs. Left | 0.171 | 0.489 | 0.218 | 8.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.198 | 0.545 | 0.245 | 19.50% | SP vs. Right | 0.275 | 0.763 | 0.337 | 17.50% |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP  | STL vs L | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Adam Wainwright – Wainwright hasn’t been himself over the last month or so. Whether he’s dealing with some type of injury or whether he misses Yadier Molina behind the plate, we don’t know. But his velocity and his strikeouts are both down a bit which is concerning. Since the start of August, he has posted a 5.29 ERA with only 23 K’s over 32 innings of work. If this were a full slate, I’d recommend avoiding him altogether, but with only 2 early games, he’s obviously going to be in play. Look at the other 3 pitching options and you’ll quickly slot Wainwright as your #1 pitcher. Rating = 6
Salaries: $9700 FD, $19900 DD, $9700 DK, $NA FF, $26700 SS, $19900 FTD
- Jeff Locke – With the early slate only containing 2 games, Locke is the clear #2 behind Wainwright. Locke owns a 3.69 ERA (3.84 xFIP) with a K/9 of 5.8. He’s producing a solid 49% ground ball rate and he doesn’t walk a ton of batters (2.3 per 9 innings). The Cardinals are right around the league average in wOBA vs. LH pitching so if you want to fade the struggling Wainwright today, Locke is probably your best bet. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6100 FD, $12700 DD, $6400 DK, $ FF, $18400 SS, $12700 FTD
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
Jhonny Peralta – Locke has given up a .336 wOBA to RH hitters this season and J-HONNY continues to fly under the radar at SS. He has always hit LH pitching well and this season is no exception as he has a .379 wOBA vs. southpaws.
Additional Plays: Matt Holliday
Pittsburgh
Josh Harrison – Due to the recent struggles of Wainwright, don’t be afraid to take a Pirates hitter or two today. Wainwright has given up a .336 batting average to his opponents in the month of August and Harrison has been locked in over the last month of play. He’s also a nice source of both speed (17 SB’s) and power (12 HR’s).
Additional Plays: Neil Walker
Texas at Seattle
| Texas | Seattle | ||||||||
| Colby Lewis | Vegas Moneyline | Erasmo Ramirez | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | SEA (-144) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.352 | 0.934 | 0.406 | 15.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.262 | 0.760 | 0.340 | 16.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.270 | 0.789 | 0.342 | 20.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.252 | 0.808 | 0.355 | 22.20% |
| Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Colby Lewis – Lewis vs. Ramirez isn’t exactly a prize winning pitching duel. Lewis has struggled all season long and is sporting a 5.54 ERA. He does have a decent K/9 of 7.1 and his peripheral stats suggest that he is pitching a bit better, but I still think he’s a below average pitching option tonight. The Mariners are ranked 15th in wOBA vs. RH pitching and have quite a few LH bats to throw at Lewis who has given up a .401 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6800 FD, $10800 DD, $6200 DK, $NA FF, $15800 SS, $10800 FTD
- Erasmo Ramirez – Ramirez has pitched well since his rough start to the season, but he still owns a 4.06 ERA (4.67 xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.6. There are two big red flags with Ramirez though. He’s walking 4.5 batters per 9 innings which is way too high and he’s giving up too many HR’s at 1.4 per 9 innings. That’s a bad combination for a pitcher because what could have been solo shots turn into 2 and 3 run HR’s. His matchup against the Rangers is favorable, but I like both pitchers in the STL/PIT game a bit more. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $5800 FD, $10850 DD, $6600 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Texas
Adrian Beltre – Ramirez has been an equal opportunity pitcher this season. He has given up a .355 wOBA to RH hitters and a .340 wOBA to LH hitters. Beltre hits RH pitching well and is a good option at 3B if you want to fade Seager who will likely be one of the most popular plays in the early slate.
Additional Plays: Elvis Andrus
Seattle
Kyle Seager – All of the LH bats on the M’s are in play today and with the early slate only containing 2 games, I’d get as many M’s in your lineup as possible. As mentioned above, Lewis really struggles vs. LH hitters. Seager has hit 15 HR’s at home this season and has been crushing RH pitching with a .384 wOBA.
Additional Plays: Robinson Cano, Dustin Ackley, Kendrys Morales
Tampa Bay at Baltimore
| Tampa Bay | Baltimore | ||||||||
| Drew Smyly | Vegas Moneyline | Kevin Gausman | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | BAL (-112) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.166 | 0.439 | 0.196 | 28.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.265 | 0.743 | 0.331 | 16.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.281 | 0.814 | 0.355 | 17.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.257 | 0.656 | 0.293 | 18.00% |
| Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Drew Smyly – The Rays were excited to bring Smyly on board because their pitching staff really felt like they could fix his struggles against RH hitters. So far, he’s pitched well as a member of the Rays. In his last 3 starts, he has given up a combined 2 earned runs while striking out 17 batters. He’s a legitimate fantasy option for the rest of the season. The issue that I have with him tonight is his matchup. The Orioles are ranked 8th in wOBA vs. LH pitching and have a few bats in their lineup that feast on southpaws (Cruz, Jones, Pearce). Rating = 5
Salaries: $7400 FD, $12550 DD, $7700 DK, $NA FF, $19300 SS, $12550 FTD
- Kevin Gausman – Gausman has been consistent this season, the problem is that he’s been consistently average. He has given up 3 earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. On the season, he is sporting a 3.81 ERA with a K/9 of 6.4. Tonight he’s facing a Rays offense that is ranked 16th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Basically, it comes down to the fact that there are better pitchers on the mound tonight. For that reason, I’ll be avoiding Gausman. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6200 FD, $12200 DD, $6700 DK, $ FF, $16300 SS, $12200 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
Ben Zobrist – Gausman has managed to keep RH hitters in check this season, so if you are targeting any Rays, target the ones that can bat from the right side of the plate. Zobrist has hit RH pitching pretty well this season with a .327 wOBA.
Additional Plays: Matt Joyce, Ben Zobrist
Baltimore
Steve Pearce – I also love Jones and Cruz here, but Pearce gets the nod as the highlighted play because he is much cheaper. Pearce has mashed LH pitching this season to the tune of a .325 batting average and a .457 wOBA. He’s also been swinging a hot bat with 13 hits (4 HR’s) over his last 10 games.
Additional Plays: Adam Jones, Nelson Cruz, Delmon Young
Washington at Philadelphia
| Washington | Philadelphia | ||||||||
| Doug Fister | Vegas Moneyline | Kyle Kendrick | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | WAS (-162) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.263 | 0.677 | 0.299 | 15.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.295 | 0.850 | 0.370 | 15.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.225 | 0.612 | 0.271 | 14.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.252 | 0.710 | 0.315 | 12.20% |
| Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Doug Fister – Fister is having a terrific season and will look to continue his great play tonight against the Phillies. He is boasting an impressive 2.38 ERA this season while striking out 5.6 batters per 9 innings. While his K-rate is much lower than the other top pitching options tonight, that’s really the only bad thing you can say about him this season. He’s walking a career-low 1.1 batters per 9 innings. Tonight he draws a terrific matchup against the Phillies who are ranked 28th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Rating = 7.5
Salaries: $8600 FD, $18100 DD, $9100 DK, $NA FF, $25400 SS, $18100 FTD
- Kyle Kendrick – Kendrick is typically a pitcher that most people skip right over in their daily research. He’s not the worst pitcher in baseball, but he doesn’t possess the qualities that we look for in daily fantasy baseball. He has a high ERA (4.93) and a low K/9 (5.3). You can safely avoid him tonight against the Nationals who have had the 2nd best offense in baseball over the last 30 days. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5200 FD, $10150 DD, $5600 DK, $ FF, $13000 SS, $10150 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Washington
Bryce Harper – Harper’s numbers are still down this season, but he has been much better over the last few weeks. He has 3 multi-hit games in his last 7 and draws a nice matchup against Kendrick whom he has had good success off of in the past. Harper is 9/25 with 5 XBH’s against Kendrick in his career.
Additional Plays: Adam LaRoche, Ian Desmond, Wilson Ramos
Philadelphia
There aren’t any plays that stand out on the Phillies tonight. Doug Fister has held both LH and RH hitters under a .300 wOBA this season.
Boston at Toronto
| Boston | Toronto | ||||||||
| Joe Kelly | Vegas Moneyline | Marcus Stroman | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TOR (-144) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.286 | 0.780 | 0.354 | 12.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.225 | 0.667 | 0.296 | 21.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.228 | 0.688 | 0.304 | 20.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.285 | 0.685 | 0.305 | 19.90% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Joe Kelly – Kelly is one of my least favorite pitchers on the board tonight. He has arguably the toughest matchup as he has to face the Blue Jays in the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays are the #1 ranked team in baseball vs. RH pitching and they are the 3rd best hitting team at home. That’s not a great combination for Kelly. Avoid him and target quite a few of these Blue Jays hitters. Rating = 3
Salaries: $5300 FD, $10100 DD, $6000 DK, $NA FF, $13000 SS, $10100 FTD
- Marcus Stroman – Stroman has given up 5 or more earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. Whether it’s just a mini-slump or whether teams are starting to figure him out, either way he’s trending in the wrong direction. The Red Sox are a very capable offense as evidenced by their 11 run performance last night (that helped CSU take home $1,000,000 – congrats by the way!). It looks like a night to spend up on pitching. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7100 FD, $12300 DD, $7000 DK, $ FF, $15200 SS, $12300 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Boston
Dustin Pedroia – Pedroia has homered in back to back games. He seems to love playing in the Rogers Centre and he has also been swinging a hot bat with 13 hits (3 XBH’s) over his last 10 games. I like the matchup for him against a struggling Stroman.
Additional Plays: Yoenis Cespedes, Brock Holt
Toronto
Jose Reyes – The Blue Jays are my favorite offense to target tonight. I love the matchup against Kelly who has given up a .354 wOBA to LH hitters this season. Reyes should be in for a multi-hit, multi-run type of game and his stolen base potential always goes up when he is facing a RH pitcher.
Additional Plays: Melky Cabrera, Jose Bautista, Adam Lind, Edwin Encarnacion