MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 23rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-07-23 19:30:52

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Cleveland at Minnesota

Cleveland					Minnesota
Trevor Bauer		Vegas Moneyline			Kyle Gibson		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CLE (-120)			RIGHT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.250	0.744	0.337	19.5%	SP vs. Left	0.306	0.775	0.347	8.7%
SP vs. Right	0.279	0.764	0.334	21.4%	SP vs. Right	0.248	0.675	0.304	16.6%
Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Trevor Bauer – Bauer’s impressive K/9 of 8.6 always keeps him fantasy relevant. While he’s given up a 5.29 ERA on the road, he’s facing a Twins’ offense that is pretty average offensively. They are ranked 15th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Expect Bauer to give up a few earned runs, but strike out a good number of batters along the way. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $6400 FD, $13800 DD, $6700 DK, $99200 FF, $20600 SS, $13800 FTD

• Anthony Swarzak – Gibson was scheduled to start, but was scratched due to a stiff back. Swarzak will draw the start instead. He’s been a long reliever in each of the last 2 seasons and hasn’t started a game since 2012. He won’t pitch deep into this game and isn’t a recommended fantasy option even if he could. He has an ERA over 4.00 as a reliever and should struggle against the Indians who are ranked 4th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Rating = 3

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Carlos Santana – Santana is a very streaky hitter and you want to target him when he is hot. Last night Santana went 4/5 with a HR and 2 doubles. He draws most of his power from the left side of the plate and gets to face Swarzak who will be making a spot start.

Additional Plays: Michael Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis

Minnesota

Trevor Plouffe – Bauer hasn’t been great against LH or RH hitters this season so you can safely target batters from both sides of the plate in this Twins’ lineup. Plouffe has 7 hits over his last 5 games and 5 of those hits went for extra bases.

Additional Plays: Kendrys Morales

Kansas City at Chicago White Sox

Kansas City					Chicago White Sox
James Shields		Vegas Moneyline			Jose Quintana		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		KCR (-112)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.255	0.670	0.345	20.8%	SP vs. Left	0.246	0.674	0.299	22.4%
SP vs. Right	0.265	0.724	0.325	19.6%	SP vs. Right	0.242	0.660	0.296	20.2%
Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KCR vs L		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• James Shields – After two rough months, Shields has looked much better in July. He has posted a 3.28 ERA with 26 K’s over 24 innings of work. Unfortunately, his price has gone back up and you can’t take him at a discount anymore. There aren’t many players that change a pitcher’s fantasy value if they are in the lineup or not, but Jose Abreu is one of those players. He sat out last night’s game due to back stiffness. If he sits out again today, bump Shields up a bit. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $8200 FD, $15500 DD, $8400 DK, $86900 FF, $24000 SS, $15200 FTD

• Jose Quintana – Quintana is for real people. On the season he’s sporting a 3.26 ERA with a K/9 8.3. Quintana has an xFIP of 3.28 which suggests that he’s the real deal and hasn’t had a good season based on luck or good defense behind him. While the Royals don’t strike out often, they are an offense void of power and they struggle vs. LH pitching. Rating = 7

Salaries: $7800 FD, $16150 DD, $8500 DK, $100200 FF, $25600 SS, $16150 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

I’ll be avoiding all Royals today against Quintana. Not only do the Royals have little to no power in their lineup, but Quintana has held both LH and RH hitters under s .281 wOBA this season.

Chicago White Sox

Adam Eaton – Eaton should fly under the radar today thanks to his matchup against Shields. He has hit RH pitching well all season and Shields has given up a .345 wOBA to LH hitters. Eaton is also sporting a 9-game hitting streak in which he has accumulated 15 hits.

Additional Plays: Conor Gillaspie

Cincinnati at Milwaukee

Cincinnati					Milwaukee
Mike Leake		Vegas Moneyline			Kyle Lohse		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		MIL (-152)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.279	0.755	0.336	14.6%	SP vs. Left	0.247	0.684	0.304	16.5%
SP vs. Right	0.251	0.665	0.301	18.2%	SP vs. Right	0.259	0.663	0.295	16.4%
Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Mike Leake – Leake has a career high 53.8% ground ball rate and a career high K/9 of 6.8. Both of which are good to see from a daily fantasy baseball perspective. Leake has a 3.63 ERA on the season and an even lower xFIP. Even though he’s an underdog against the Brewers, the matchup lines up well for him as the Brewers lineup is very RH heavy and Leake has held RH hitters to a .274 wOBA this season. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $8000 FD, $13650 DD, $7900 DK, $73100 FF, $22400 SS, $13650 FTD

• Kyle Lohse – Lohse continues to pitch well and he continues to have low % of ownership across the industry. While he doesn’t have the highest K-rate in baseball (6.6 per 9 innings), he doesn’t walk many batters and he gives up very few runs, especially at home where he has posted a 2.43 ERA while holding opponents to a .253 batting average. I love the matchup against a depleted Reds’ offense. Rating = 7.5

Salaries: $7400 FD, $15350 DD, $8400 DK, $99700 FF, $23000 SS, $15350 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Jay Bruce – I like Bruce as a tournament play today, but will likely be avoiding him in cash games. He has nice power against RH pitching and is playing in the HR-friendly Miller Park. The only downside here is his matchup against Lohse.

Additional Plays: None

Milwaukee

Carlos Gomez – Even though Leake has been good against RH hitters, Gomez makes a nice play today. I always like targeting players that can score fantasy points multiple ways and Gomez is a player with great speed and good power in his bat.

Additional Plays: Ryan Braun

Washington at Colorado

Washington					Colorado
Stephen Strasburg		Vegas Moneyline			Jorge De La Rosa		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		WAS (-161)			LEFT		10.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.224	0.623	0.285	23.3%	SP vs. Left	0.183	0.485	0.225	23.9%
SP vs. Right	0.236	0.620	0.286	30.5%	SP vs. Right	0.278	0.770	0.349	13.9%
Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs L		Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Stephen Strasburg – Strasburg is one of the best pitchers in the National League, but has two big red flags today against the Rockies. The first, and most obvious, is the fact that he’s pitching in the best hitter’s park in baseball. Even with two quality pitchers on the mound, the total is still set at 10.5 runs. The second red flag is Strasburg’s inability to pitch on the road. He has a 4.92 ERA on the road this season while giving up a .343 batting average to opponents. I will not be paying up for him today. Rating = 5

Salaries: $9700 FD, $18300 DD, $9600 DK, $111200 FF, $28300 SS, $18950 FTD

• Jorge De La Rosa – De La Rosa is a quality starter, but he’s not going to be on any fantasy rosters today. He’s pitching in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball and he’s facing a team that feasts on LH pitching. That’s a bad combination. Rating = 3

Salaries: $6200 FD, $11000 DD, $5500 DK, $75800 FF, $16000 SS, $11000 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Ian Desmond – Desmond is taking full advantage of this series in Coors Field. In the first two games of the series he’s gone 7/8 with 2 XBH’s, 3 runs, and 2 RBI’s. Those totals are pretty good for a week’s worth of work. Continue targeting him today against De La Rosa.

Additional Plays: Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman

Colorado

Corey Dickerson – Dickerson is always in play when he’s facing a RH pitcher in Coors, regardless of who that pitcher may be. He has a .449 wOBA against RH pitching this season and is facing Strasburg whose struggles on the road have been well documented.

Additional Plays: Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez

NY Mets at Seattle

NY Mets					Seattle
Bartolo Colon		Vegas Moneyline			Taijuan Walker		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		NYM (-125)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.262	0.687	0.301	15.6%	SP vs. Left	0.212	0.677	0.307	19.7%
SP vs. Right	0.266	0.652	0.289	17.2%	SP vs. Right	0.189	0.535	0.252	21.4%
Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R		Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Bartolo Colon – Even though his ERA is much higher this season, Colon has basically been the same pitcher that he was in Oakland last year when he put up a 2.76 ERA. The only difference has been luck and defense. His xFIP is actually lower than it was last season and his K/9 has actually gone up. Taking Colon can be nerve wrecking at times, but he has a nice matchup against the Mariners who are ranked 21st in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Rating = 7

Salaries: $7500 FD, $14450 DD, $7200 DK, $76800 FF, $20900 SS, $14450 FTD

• Taijuan Walker – Walker has been a highly touted prospect for a few years now and is finally looking to stay in the majors for a while. He has a high strikeout rate and offers nice upside for the price, especially when you factor in his matchup against the Mets who are ranked 24th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6000 FD, $10950 DD, $8000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Lucas Duda – The sample size is extremely small, but LH hitters have had some success against Walker this season. Duda has nice power vs. RH pitching and is an affordable option at 1B.

Additional Plays: Daniel Murphy

Seattle

Robinson Cano – Cano could find himself on the right side of a Colon fastball today. He’s hit Colon well throughout his career and he’s sporting a team high .393 wOBA vs. RH pitching.

Additional Plays: Kyle Seager

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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