MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 30th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Milwaukee at Tampa Bay
| Milwaukee | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
| Yovani Gallardo | Vegas Moneyline | David Price | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TBR (-183) | LEFT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.238 | 0.684 | 0.309 | 17.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.219 | 0.569 | 0.260 | 23.7% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.275 | 0.722 | 0.322 | 19.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.253 | 0.673 | 0.296 | 23.7% |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP  | MIL vs L | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Yovani Gallardo – As per usual Wednesday tradition, we have a split slate today. There are 6 day games and 9 evening games. Gallardo will be on the mound for the Brewers as they face a Rays team that has now won 10 of their last 11 games. Gallardo has a 3.57 ERA (3.58 xFIP) to go along with his K/9 of 6.99. He’s producing a career-high 52% ground ball rate and he’s managed to pitch well on the road with a 3.27 ERA. I’m not a huge fan of taking pitchers against red hot teams though so I do have to ding him a bit. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $7100 FD, $14750 DD, $7400 DK, $74400 FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- David Price – Price is the easy ace to target in the early slate of games. On the season, he has a 3.08 ERA (2.71 xFIP) and is averaging over 10 K’s per 9 innings. He also has a K/BB rate close to 10 which is extremely impressive. Price throws more strikes than anyone which is why he typically pitches 7+ innings in all of his starts. A matchup against a RH heavy lineup would typically scare me off of a LH pitcher, but Price has held RH hitters to a .278 wOBA this season. Rating = 9
Salaries: $11300 FD, $22550 DD, $12500 DK, $149100 FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
Avoid all Brewers against Price today. As mentioned above, he is extremely efficient against RH hitters.
Tampa Bay
Ben Zobrist – Zobrist has been swinging a hot bat. Over his last 5 games he has 9 hits, 3 of which went for extra bases. Zobrist still has decent speed and decent power in his bat and his price has yet to reflect his recent level of production.
Additional Plays: Evan Longoria
Philadelphia at NY Mets
| Philadelphia | NY Mets | ||||||||
| Kyle Kendrick | Vegas Moneyline | Zack Wheeler | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | NYM (-149) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.272 | 0.751 | 0.334 | 14.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.277 | 0.781 | 0.350 | 20.9% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.287 | 0.727 | 0.332 | 13.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.605 | 0.282 | 21.8% |
| Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Kyle Kendrick – In the majority of his starts, you can write Kendrick off as a bad play. But when any pitcher is facing the Mets in Citi Field, it has to at least spark your interest. Kendrick has a 4.87 ERA on the season, but his xFIP is lower at 4.34 which is a more true indicator of how well a pitcher is actually pitching. He doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, but the Mets are ranked 25th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Rating = 5
Salaries: $5600 FD, $11350 DD, $5900 DK, $46100 FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Zack Wheeler – Wheeler is bit expensive on DK, but seems reasonably priced on the other DFS sites. If you look at Wheeler’s xFIP of 3.38 and his K/9 of 9.0, he has actually pitched very well this season. The only issue with Wheeler is his command (3.6 walks per 9 innings) and his consistency. That said, the matchup and his strikeout potential outweigh the bad here. Rating = 7
Salaries: $7500 FD, $14050 DD, $8400 DK, $99500 FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
Chase Utley – Utley hit a Grand Salami last night and is in another nice spot today against Wheeler who has given up a .353 to LH hitters this season. It’s not the best ballpark for hitters, but the matchup isn’t bad.
Additional Plays: None
NY Mets
Lucas Duda – It can be hard paying up for Duda, but he’s been producing over the last month and it’s time to start buying in on him when he’s facing a RH pitching. Duda has a . wOBA in the month of July and a nice matchup against Kendrick who has given up a .380 wOBA to LH hitters this season.
Additional Plays: Curtis Granderson, David Wright
Arizona at Cincinnati
| Arizona | Cincinnati | ||||||||
| Wade Miley | Vegas Moneyline | Alfredo Simon | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | CIN (-110) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.263 | 0.699 | 0.318 | 16.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.222 | 0.679 | 0.306 | 15.6% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.255 | 0.721 | 0.320 | 20.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.213 | 0.547 | 0.264 | 17.7% |
| Batter Splits | ARI BvP | ARI vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Wade Miley – Miley has quite a few stats in his favor today. He has a 3.34 xFIP on the season which is a full run lower than his ERA. He is averaging 8.5 K’s per 9 innings. He’s been very good this month with a 2.94 ERA while holding opponents to a .222 batting average. And finally, he has a great matchup against a depleted Reds’ offense that is ranked 23rd in wOBA vs. LH pitching. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $7200 FD, $14750 DD, $8500 DK, $89300 FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Alfredo Simon – Simon continues to post solid numbers despite having very few DFS supporters on his side. Simon has a 2.86 ERA on the season, but his 3.97 xFIP suggests some serious regression down the stretch of the regular season. His BABIP of .245 is extremely low. While I’m not saying that you need to avoid him completely, I’m saying that you should temper your expectations. Miley is a better play in this one. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $7300 FD, $15050 DD, $7300 DK, $89800 FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Arizona
Miguel Montero – Montero is typically my go-to play when the D-Backs are facing a RH pitcher. He has a .355 wOBA vs. RH pitching and Great American Ballpark treats LH hitters well. UPDATE: Montero is NOT in the lineup today
Additional Plays: Paul Goldschmidt
Cincinnati
Todd Frazier – Frazier finally broke out of his slump last night with a solid game. He’s hit LH pitching well all season long and gets a nice matchup against Miley at home.
Additional Plays: Devin Mesoraco
Washington at Miami
| Washington | Miami | ||||||||
| Tanner Roark | Vegas Moneyline | Brad Hand | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | WAS (-144) | LEFT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.228 | 0.622 | 0.282 | 14.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.233 | 0.646 | 0.289 | 18.9% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.231 | 0.539 | 0.246 | 22.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.272 | 0.777 | 0.349 | 14.5% |
| Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs L | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Tanner Roark – Roark has had some glaring home/road splits this season, but he does have a nice matchup in a hitter friendly ballpark. The Marlins strike out the 2nd most times of any team in baseball and Marlins Park is a pitcher-friendly environment. I expect him to get some run support to help his chances of picking up the all important win. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $7500 FD, $16150 DD, $8700 DK, $116500 FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Brad Hand – Hand has an ERA over 5.00 in his career and is not a pitcher that I’m targeting in the early slate. Even though the Nats are missing Zimmerman, they are still ranked 8th in wOBA vs. LH pitching this season. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $5700 FD, $10100 DD, $6300 DK, $65900 FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Washington
Jayson Werth – Werth sat out last night’s game after spraining his ankle the night before, but he was able to pinch hit and is expected back in the lineup tonight. Werth has a .427 wOBA vs. LH pitching this season and a nice matchup against Hand.
Additional Plays: Anthony Rendon
Miami
Casey McGehee – Hit McGee has been terrific with runners in scoring position this season and he’s been one of the more consistent fantasy options at 3B.
Additional Plays: Giancarlo Stanton
Oakland at Houston
| Oakland | Houston | ||||||||
| Jason Hammel | Vegas Moneyline | Dallas Keuchel | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | OAK (-146) | LEFT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.281 | 0.806 | 0.357 | 16.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.267 | 0.692 | 0.313 | 26.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.243 | 0.663 | 0.300 | 21.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.290 | 0.770 | 0.344 | 15.5% |
| Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs L | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jason Hammel – Hammel is hoping to have more success against the Astros than Samardzija and Chavez did in the first two games of the series. While it’s hard to ignore those two losses, Hammel is in a great spot today. The Astros are ranked 26th in wOBA vs. RH pitching and strike out more than any team in baseball. Hammel meanwhile, is sporting a 3.41 ERA with a K/9 of 8.3. Rating = 8
Salaries: $6600 FD, $13200 DD, $7700 DK, $84600 FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Dallas Keuchel – Keuchel has had some terrible luck in the month of July. Despite producing a high ground ball rate, the ground balls have managed to find holes and he’s given up a .396 batting average this month. That’s not going to hold up forever though and his price has come way down on most DFS sites. He’s a sneaky GPP play today on DK. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7700 FD, $15150 DD, $6100 DK, $82600 FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Oakland
Josh Donaldson – Donaldson is having another terrific season against LH pitching. He has a .456 wOBA vs. southpaws and is facing a pitcher that has had an awful month of July.
Additional Plays: Yoenis Cespedes, Derek Norris
Houston
For the 3rd day in a row, I will be avoiding the Astros’ bats against this A’s pitching staff.
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