NBA Grind Down: Sat. 4/19 and Sun 4/20

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-04-20 15:51:06

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Brooklyn at Toronto

Vegas Line – Toronto -2, 194.5 Over/Under
Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Livingston-Johnson-Pierce-Garnett
Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Derozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas

Brooklyn

Let the playoffs begin! Is anyone else excited to finally have some meaningful basketball games? The last couple weeks of the regular season were just brutal with all of the late scratches. The NBA playoffs kick off in Toronto this year in what should be fantastic series. We have the jumpstart Raptors against the cagey veterans of the Nets.

The Raptors are 2 point favorites in Game 1 and even though both teams are ranked in the top 11 in points allowed per game, both teams started to push the tempo over the last month of play. The total is set at 194.5 points which isn’t bad for a playoff game featuring two tough defense.

The Nets are a tough team to target from a fantasy perspective because they have so many different contributors offensively and we could see a 9-10 man rotation in the playoffs which is typically not the norm. That doesn’t bode well for their individual fantasy value. It also doesn’t help that the Raptors are ranked 13th or better against every position on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed.

Possible Injury Concern: Shaun Livingston has missed the last 5 games, but is expected to play and start in Game 1. If he ends up being a late scratch, give a small boost to Joe Johnson and Deron Williams.

Joe Johnson – If you have to target someone from the Nets, I recommend Johnson. Johnson is a clutch scorer and has the best matchup of the five starters. The Raptors were ranked 27th against SF’s over the last 15 days and I’m expecting Johnson to step up big in these playoffs.

Toronto

The Raptors have to be happy with the position that they are in. After trading away Rudy Gay, they were expected to go into rebuilding mode, but here they are as the 3 seed in the East. I’m not quite sure what to expect out of the Raptors in this series. Not only do they face a tough battle tested group of Nets’ players, but I’m afraid that the Raptors may be content with the fact that they made it this far. Obviously, they are going to try to win, but I’m predicting the Nets to come out of this series.

As far as the matchup for Game 1 goes, the Nets were ranked 9th or better against PG’s, SF’s, PF’s, and Centers this season in terms of fantasy points allowed. Even though the Nets play small ball, bigs have really had a tough time finding any success down low. I’ll be avoiding the bigs of the Raptors here. Kyle Lowry should not be counted out though. Lowry is one of the toughest players in the league that seems to revel in tough matchups and tough situations.

DeMar DeRozan – DeRozan has somehow yet to face the Nets this season. He does have a nice matchup though as the Nets are ranked 23rd against SG’s over the entire season and 26th over the last two weeks. DeRozan is the Raptors best scorer and I expect them to lean heavily on him in Game 1. DeRozan would also see a small fantasy boost if Shaun Livingston doesn’t play.

Golden State at L.A.Clippers

Vegas Line – L.A.Clippers -7, 211.5 Over/Under
Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Lee-Bogut
L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan

Golden State

This is going to be a very fun series to watch. Not only do we have two of the faster paced teams in the league, but this series is full of superstars. The biggest question with the Warriors is their health. Andrew Bogut is dealing with some broken ribs that could keep him out of the entire playoffs. He is on the wrong side of questionable for Game 1 and this entire series. Andre Iguodala and David Lee have both been nursing injuries as well, but both are expected to be ready to play in this game.

If the Warriors are forced to play without Andrew Bogut, that is a huge blow to their chances to win this playoff series as the way to beat the Clippers is down low. The Clippers are ranked 23rd against both Centers and PF’s this season. Draymond Green would be the biggest benefactor if Bogut sits. He has been a tremendous fill-in for the Warriors over the last month of the season. As tempting as it is to target Stephen Curry in a playoff game, I will likely be avoiding him as Chris Paul and Darren Collison have held opposing PG’s to the 2nd fewest FP’s per game this season.

David Lee – Lee has been in and out of the lineup over the last month, but played in 3 straight games before getting the season finale off to rest. Lee should be able to play 35+ minutes and he may have to if Bogut’s out. The Clippers have given up the 8th most FP’s to opposing PF’s this season and Lee is averaging 21 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assists against them. He’s a safe cash game play.

Andre Iguodala – Iguodala has had a disappointing season for the Warriors. While his defense has been incredible, he has really struggled offensively. That said, the Warriors may need him to play 40 minutes in this game and Iggy can fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He’s not a stranger to big games and he’s always been good with under pressure. He is a very sneaky play at SF.

L.A.Clippers

The Clippers have high hopes this season and are hoping to avoid a first round exit like last season. With Doc Rivers at the helm, all of the pieces appear to be in the right places so now it’s just time for them to show up. The Clippers may catch a break in the first round as the Warriors come into this series a bit hobbled. The Clippers are 7.5 point favorites in Game 1.

As far as the matchup goes, I really like the two bigs of the Clippers if Bogut is forced to miss this series. Over the last two weeks, the Warriors are ranked 22nd and 28th against PF’s and Centers with Bogut and Lee both missing time. Chris Paul also makes a solid play as he plays his best in big games. Paul loves to play against top notch PG’s and he has that in this series against Curry. I’ll be avoiding the messy SG situation as Jamal Crawford, J.J. Redick, and Darren Collison will all be fighting for minutes.

Blake Griffin – In 4 games against the Warriors this season Griffin is averaging 25 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 assists. I think we can expect a similar outing from him in Game 1. Griffin ended the season on a tear as he put up at least 39 FP’s in each of his last 5 games. He should dominate down low against the likely short-handed Warriors.

DeAndre Jordan – Jordan should be targeted if, and only if, Andrew Bogut is out of the lineup. Jordan would be matched up against the likes of David Lee and Jermaine O’Neal and I like his odds in both of those matchups. Jordan is one of the best rebounders in basketball and should gobble up plenty in a fast paced series.

Atlanta at Indiana

Vegas Line – Indiana -7.5, 186 Over/Under
Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Brand
Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert

Atlanta

The Hawks are 7.5 point favorites in Game 1, but that is actually a little bit lower than I was expecting. Even though the Pacers stumbled down the stretch of the regular season, they still have one of the best defenses in the NBA. The Pacers are ranked 9th or better against every position on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed.

I’m not too excited about any of the Hawks’ players in this one. The game has a very low total at 186 points and I’m expecting the crowd in Indiana to fire up this Pacers’ defense. Paul Millsap has struggled against this defense this season and should be avoided for cash games. Jeff Teague could make an interesting tournament play, but there are more reliable options for cash games.

Indiana

This game is expected to be played at a pretty average pace, but the Pacers have a nice matchup at home. The Hawks ranked 14th or worse against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed over the course of the season. This will be a pace-up game for the Pacers which only adds to their fantasy value.

Roy Hibbert has been a shell of his former self over the last month or so and should likely be avoided today even with a favorable matchup against the less than intimidating frontcourt of the Hawks. George Hill carries some value if his price is cheap enough, but Lance Stephenson and Paul George both hurt his production as they do a lot of the ball handling for this team.

Paul George – In 4 games against the Hawks this season, George averaged 22 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 steals per game. Those are fairly solid numbers and he managed to post those while only averaging 35 minutes per game. He should be targeted in all leagues. Dollar for dollar, he is my top overall play today.

David West – West is the guy that the Pacers count on. When they need a bucket to stop an opponents run, they give the ball to West. That bodes well for his fantasy value in this series. I’m interested to see how Lance Stephenson plays, but I have a feeling that the Pacers will rely heavily on both George and West.

Memphis at Oklahoma City

Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -7, 192.5 Over/Under
Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins

Memphis

The Grizzlies squeaked into the playoffs with a huge win over Phoenix. This is a tough, battle-tested team that the Thunder can’t be too excited about facing. This Grizzlies team has a ton of playoff experience and is filled with veterans that have been here before. Don’t be surprised to see the Grizzlies make a series out of this and push it to 6 or 7 games.

As far as the matchup goes, the Thunder are a pretty average team defensively. Now that Kendrick Perkins is back in the lineup, they are back to being very stingy against opposing Centers. The Thunder were ranked 3rd overall in fantasy points allowed to Centers this season which does hurt the value of Marc Gasol a bit.

Zach Randolph – Z-Bo is the Grizzlies go-to player in big games and this will be their biggest game of the season to date. Z-Bo is averaging 16 points, 11 rebounds, and 2 assists against the Thunder this season and I expect him to build on those numbers in this series.

Mike Conley – Conley averaged 15 points, 8 assists, and 2 rebounds per game against the Thunder this season and is a very experienced PG. He has played in a lot of big playoff series and he will not be overwhelmed by a Game 1 on the road in front of a hostile crowd. I will be pairing Conley and Randolph in quite a few GPP’s.

Oklahoma City

The Thunder draw an extremely tough first round matchup. The Grizzlies are a team that likes to slow the pace of the game down and make you play at their tempo. This not only hurts the fantasy production of the Thunder players, but it also lets the Grizzlies keep games close and have a shot to win at the end of games. The Grizzlies were ranked 12th or better against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed.

While the Thunder will obviously be pumped up for this game in front of their home crowd, I’m worried about the pace of the game. With Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant both used to putting up plenty of shots, the slow pace will likely mean less shot attempts for both. I will be avoiding both for cash games, but will have some exposure to them for GPP’s. Derek Fisher could be a very sneaky play as well. I expect him to be a big part of the rotation with all of his playoff experience.

Serge Ibaka – Ibaka is the one Thunder player that is safe to use in cash games. He will be matched up with Randolph who gets his shot blocked more often that your average PF. Ibaka has averaged 15 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, and 3 blocks against the Grizzlies this season.

Dallas at San Antonio

Vegas Line – San Antonio -9, 207 Over/Under
Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter

Dallas

The Mavericks and Spurs once again meet in the playoffs. These two teams have had some tremendous battles over the years and hopefully this can be another one. The Spurs are 9 point favorites in this game though and are clearly playing at a much higher level than the Mavs. The Spurs are ranked 9th or better against SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s this season in terms of fantasy points allowed.

This is a tough matchup for Monta Ellis. Coach Pops knows how to stop opposing team’s best players and I really expect him to have a game plan to stop Ellis. Not to mention he will be matched up against both Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard who are both very solid defenders. Jose Calderon could make an interesting tournament play as the Spurs are ranked 17th against PG’s this season.

Dirk Nowitzki – Even though the Spurs are ranked 9th against PF’s this season, Dirk is not your average PF. Not only that, but he is at his best in big games. The Mavs will likely lean heavily on Dirk this series and his minutes should see a small spike from his regular season average. Dirk is only averaging 18 points and 6 rebounds against the Spurs this year, but should post much better stat lines in this series.

San Antonio

The Spurs have been resting key players down the stretch and it has paid off. Not only did they grab homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs, but they are entering the playoffs completely healthy. They will be facing a fast paced Mavs team that has been very average defensively this season. The Mavs are ranked 15th or worse against SF’s, PF’s, and Centers this season and are ranked 24th against PG’s over the last 15 days.

There are 4 players that I will have a decent amount of exposure to in Game 1. Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili all have favorable matchups. Leonard can do a little of everything on the floor and should be able to pad the stat sheet in this series. Parker was hobbled down the stretch, but should be close to 100% for this game. Ginobili is made for the playoffs. He may only play 25 minutes per game, but he should average over a FP/minute. While I like all three of those players, Tim Duncan is my top play here.

Tim Duncan – Duncan said that he is excited to see a small increase in his workload during the postseason. He is expected to play 33-35 minutes and the way he has played this season, we can expect some monster stat lines in this series. Not only that, but the Mavs were ranked 22nd against PF’s this season.