Predicting Big Games Using NBA Vegas Lines

Vegas Lines are one of many ways to help predict daily fantasy value, but the interpretations of spreads and Over/Unders can be a challenge. The proof is always in the numbers though so we went back and looked at all of the Vegas odds for the month of January and found which games lead to the most fantasy explosions, similar to how RG Blogger Hambazaza did in his Odds and Ends series. The sample size isn’t huge, but 240 total games should be enough to give us a pretty good idea of how the Vegas Odds and big fantasy nights correlate.

Games included are from January 1st to February 1st

Basically, the data below shows different categories of over/unders, spreads and over/unders + spreads along with how many games played in the last month match that split. Then it shows how many total players in those games scored more than 40 fantasy points and more than 50 fantasy points, along with how many there were per each game played.

LEGEND

Over/Unders

We’ll start with the easiest number to interpret, the O/U. It’s broken down into 7 ranges for each split where it’s discussed in the article:

For the 240 games between 1/1/14 and 2/1/14, here’s what we saw:

OVER/UNDERS GP 40+ FP 40+/GP 50+ FP 50+/GP FPPG
0 to 190 Pts 31 43 1.39 13 0.42 364.56
190 to 195 Pts 31 35 1.13 11 0.35 371.24
195 to 200 Pts 50 73 1.46 21 0.42 383.40
200 to 205 Pts 52 74 1.42 14 0.27 383.50
205 to 210 Pts 36 73 2.03 18 0.50 401.96
210 to 215 Pts 26 45 1.73 14 0.54 381.94
215+ Pts 14 23 1.64 11 0.79 421.42

Spreads

Games here include all spreads, and aren’t broken down by individual team (favored or underdog). So if the absolute value of the spread falls in the ranges below, it was used to count this data. Further down, we’ll look at how being favored or being an underdog impacts big nights for fantasy.

SPREADS GP 40+ FP 40+/GP 50+ FP 50+/GP FPPG
0-3 Pts 58 93 1.60 30 0.52 386.70
3-6 Pts 78 122 1.56 33 0.42 382.23
6-9 Pts 54 82 1.52 19 0.35 381.30
9-12 Pts 39 54 1.38 14 0.36 384.74
12+ Pts 11 15 1.36 6 0.55 398.65

Favorites and Underdogs

Favorites

Below are stats from teams favored in the same spread ranges used above:

FAVORITES GP 40+ FP 40+/GP 50+ FP 50+/GP
0-3 Pts 58 53 0.91 16 0.28
3-6 Pts 78 68 0.87 20 0.26
6-9 Pts 54 46 0.85 13 0.24
9-12 Pts 39 39 1.00 10 0.26
12+ Pts 11 11 1.00 6 0.55

Underdogs

Below are stats from underdog teams in the same spread ranges used above:

UNDERDOGS GP 40+ FP 40+/GP 50+ FP 50+/GP
0-3 Pts 58 40 0.69 14 0.24
3-6 Pts 78 54 0.69 13 0.17
6-9 Pts 54 36 0.67 6 0.11
9-12 Pts 39 15 0.38 4 0.10
12+ Pts 11 4 0.36 0 0.00

Spread with Over/Under

The last sub-section we’ll look at takes into account all combinations of both spread and over/under:

Table below is sortable. Click any column header to sort by that category

Spread O/U GP 40+ FP 40+/G 50+ FP 50+/G
(0-3) (0-190) 9 12 1.33 7 0.78
(3-6) (0-190) 13 21 1.62 5 0.38
(6-9) (0-190) 5 6 1.20 1 0.20
(9-12) (0-190) 3 4 1.33 0 0.00
(12+) (0-190) 1 0 0.00 0 0.00
(0-3) (190-195) 9 10 1.11 2 0.22
(3-6) (190-195) 12 17 1.42 5 0.42
(6-9) (190-195) 5 3 0.60 1 0.20
(9-12) (190-195) 5 5 1.00 3 0.60
(12+) (190-195) 0 0 0
(0-3) (195-200) 12 16 1.33 4 0.33
(3-6) (195-200) 17 26 1.53 6 0.35
(6-9) (195-200) 11 19 1.73 6 0.55
(9-12) (195-200) 5 6 1.20 3 0.60
(12+) (195-200) 5 6 1.20 2 0.40
(0-3) (200-205) 7 10 1.43 0 0.00
(3-6) (200-205) 17 29 1.71 10 0.59
(6-9) (200-205) 13 17 1.31 0 0.00
(9-12) (200-205) 14 18 1.29 4 0.29
(12+) (200-205) 1 0 0.00 0 0.00
(0-3) (205-210) 14 30 2.14 11 0.79
(3-6) (205-210) 8 14 1.75 1 0.13
(6-9) (205-210) 7 17 2.43 5 0.71
(9-12) (205-210) 5 8 1.60 0 0.00
(12+) (205-210) 2 4 2.00 1 0.50
(0-3) (210-215) 3 7 2.33 2 0.67
(3-6) (210-215) 9 13 1.44 5 0.56
(6-9) (210-215) 8 13 1.63 3 0.38
(9-12) (210-215) 5 9 1.80 2 0.40
(12+) (210-215) 1 3 3.00 2 2.00
(0-3) (215+) 4 8 2.00 4 1.00
(3-6) (215+) 2 2 1.00 1 0.50
(6-9) (215+) 5 7 1.40 3 0.60
(9-12) (215+) 2 4 2.00 2 1.00
(12+) (215+) 1 2 2.00 1 1.00

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