How to Project RBs: Part 1
High Ceiling RBs
I’ve been discussing this theory with a few top Grinders recently, and I’m coming to the conclusion that understanding and using Ceilings and Floors is one of the most overlooked aspects amongst beginners when projecting their players values. Calculating a players ceiling and floor should come right before calculating their average, and some of the top Grinders can accurately estimate these indicators inherently. There are several factors that go into calculate a player’s Ceiling and Floor, and subsequently their projected points scored. These factors will vary slightly by position, and in this article we’re going to discuss calculating it for Running Backs. The factors that go into this calculation are: Player’s Effectiveness, % of Rushing Workload, Opponent Faced, and ‘Other Factors’ Combining projections from these categories will give you an accurate projection of the range you can expect from any given player.
Player’s Effectiveness – Yards Per Carry
This category can be broadly calculated based on your perception of a player’s ability, or in the case of a Running-Back by the YPC (Yards Per Carry) statistic. The YPC stats, is the best indicator of a players effectiveness within their given system. Here are the Top-10 Running Backs by YPC in the NFL so far this season (with at least 50 attempts)
| Running Back | YPC |
|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 6.1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 5.6 |
| Arian Foster | 5.2 |
| Darren McFadden | 5.2 |
| LeSean McCoy | 5 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 5 |
| Chris Ivory | 4.8 |
| Tim Hightower | 4.8 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 4.7 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4.6 |
Surprising, right? Well, keep in mind that looking at a Player’s Effectiveness in their current system isn’t the only measure to look at – or else the Giants would still be starting Brandon Jacobs.
Percentage of Workload – Step 1: Attempts Per Game
Percentage of Workload is probably the most important factor to look at when projecting players. If a player is averaging 7 YPC, but only gets 10% of their teams rushing workload, they are likely not worth touching. A lower percentage of workload is can actually increase a player’s YPC stat A) because it usually provides a small sample size and is less reliable and B) situationaly, when a starting running back is out of the game, defenses ten to defend the pass much more heavily. This allows back-up RBs to pick up more YPC than a starting RB would against a defense who is more prepared to stop the run on their particular plays.
Percentage of workload is extremely important for Running Backs because a top RB will get many more touches per game (often around 20) than a top WR (often around 6). This makes an RBs output much more consistent, in general, than WRs from week-to-week. Here are the same RBs from above’s current workloads for their team:
| Running Back | YPC | APG |
|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 6.1 | 13.9 |
| Danny Woodhead | 5.6 | 7 |
| Arian Foster | 5.2 | 19.4 |
| Darren McFadden | 5.2 | 18.4 |
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 14.6 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 5 | 7.8 |
| Chris Ivory | 4.8 | 12.6 |
| Tim Hightower | 4.8 | 9.1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 4.7 | 18.5 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4.6 | 21.1 |
There are 2 ways to look at an RBs Percentage of Workload. The cheat step is to just look at a rusher’s APG (Attempts Per Game), and this is fairly accurate and OK to use. But if you want to take it a step further, I would also look at their percentage of workload for their team: APG / Team’s APG. This number is then applied to the projections of rushing poitns allowed by the opponent that rusher is facing. In Part 2 tomorrow night, we will calculate the Percentage of Workload for the same 10 players, then apply that to their opponents for Week 12. From there we will look at ‘Other Factors’ such as Offensive Line, Injuries, PPR, and the Passing Game. I’ll then lay out how I take all of this collective data to formulate an accurate projection for each player for their respective week, as well as analyze the Ceiling and Floor for each of these RBs. See you then!