MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, May 5th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got a big 10-game MLB slate on tap for Sunday afternoon, but it sounds like there’s a real chance weather will relegate us to 9 games with major rain concerns in DET-NYY. Regardless, there’s still enough to like out there on both the pitching and hitting sides of things. I’m seeing a useful combination of aces and viable cheaper arms out there, though there isn’t one stack standing out head and shoulders above everything else.
I’m expecting fairly flat ownership on the offensive front, but let’s take a deeper dive and identify a few teams worth targeting this afternoon.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Sunday, May 5th
Chalky Stack – Blue Jays at MacKenzie Gore
As of this writing, the Blue Jays are projected to pull the most stack ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. They’re coming in around 11% on both sites, though, so it’s not a clear-cut situation. Salary could be a factor here. There’s just a single Toronto hitter priced above $5,000 on DraftKings, while just 2 of them are even over $3,000 on FD.
The Jays will head to DC to face MacKenzie Gore, who is pretty clearly a quality pitcher these days. The young lefty is in the midst of his best season to date, though we’re only a month in. Still, Gore has pitched to a tidy 3.10 SIERA and a 3.19 ERA. His strikeout rate (29%), walk rate (6.9%), and barrel rate (7.4%) are all the best marks of his young career.
Gore still profiles as a guy who could struggle to keep the ball in the park against righties, and Daulton Varsho is the only left-handed bat in the projected lineup this afternoon. As a group, Toronto has a .354 wOBA vs. left-handed pitching over the last 2 seasons, though they haven’t hit for all that much power (.162 ISO). It is a high-contact group (16.4% Ks), so they could do some damage if they’ll be regularly putting the ball in play against what is normally a high-strikeout pitcher.
It really is hard to ignore those aforementioned FanDuel salaries for the Jays. Even if they’ve struggled this season, it’s jarring to see guys like Vladimir Guerrero, Bo Bichette, and George Springer priced at $3,000 or less. Davis Schneider (31% barrels) and Justin Turner (13.7%) are regularly squaring it up against LHPs, though Bichette (9.5%) and Springer (8.7%) can still inflict damage.
Even as the most popular projected stack on the slate, the projections say Toronto is still going under-owned. Their optimal rate is around 15% on DraftKings, while it’s over 20% on FD.
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