Another Big Tuesday Night In The NHL - Tuesday, February 21st, 2012.

After a slow Presidents’ Day hockey-wise with only 2 games played, we get a full slate of NHL action, with 11 games being played tonight. Looking back at those two games on Presidents’ Day, I don’t quite understand why there have been so many blowouts this year when I otherwise thought they’d be pretty good games. It’s really been bugging me, both as just something I find a bit puzzling and something that’s been hurting my fantasy teams a bit. The Islanders, who had been playing pretty well lately, got blown away by Ottawa on Long Island. Ottawa has also been playing well, but had been up and down for parts of January and February. I could see Ottawa winning, but would have never expected 6-0. Then, Carolina crushes Washington 5-0 in Carolina. That I could see a little more, as Washington’s been struggling while Carolina’s been doing very well lately. But, still Carolina has been one of the weaker teams in the league defensively until very, very recently, so a 5-0 shutout of a Washington team that has been rather high-scoring in recent years is a bit perplexing to me. I guess that’s why you have to keep paying attention to recent form in sports. Still, even considering recent form, I would have never expected such lopsided shutouts. I don’t really know what there is to learn from it, other than that we can never really be 100% certain or even around 75% accurate in our projections. The best we can really hope for is somewhere around 60 to 70% accuracy in our general projections. Nonetheless, I will still try in vain to perfectly project the future of about 20-30 players that I think will greatly help your fantasy teams tonight!

- Goalies –

Unfortunately, at the time I’m writing this, not many goalies are confirmed to be playing tonight. But, of those that are, I see some possibilities for strong performances.

Mathieu Garon, $15,672: You could definitely find a goalie who’s more of a guarantee for big points, but Garon’s done pretty well over his last 5 games, with a .9198 Save Percentage and 6.76 Fantasy Points Per Game. Anaheim has been playing great lately, winning 4 of their last 5 games and 6 of their last 8. But, they’ve scored exactly 2 goals in all of their last 4 games. So, while they have been playing well, especially Corey Perry, I’m not too worried that the Ducks will blow out Tampa Bay on the road in Tampa. On the other side, Tampa Bay’s been unpredictable lately on defense, but when playing with Garon in net they’ve been pretty well. Garon’s 3-4 in his last 7 starts, but 2 of those losses were 1-goal overtime losses. His Save Percentage has been keeping his fantasy score up around 5 or 6 Fantasy Points each game, even in losses. Also, this is the 7th game of an 8-game road trip for Anaheim, so that could be a small factor as well.

Kari Lehtonen, $17,822: He’s a bit less of a value than Garon, mostly just because of the price. But, his .918 Save Percentage is 19th in the NHL right now, and he should be given a bit more credit for that since he has played 40 games while some above him on the list have played less games. He’s been a bit shaky in his last 8 games, but he still has a SV% of about .912 and is scoring 5.48 FPPG over that period. Now, he gets a Montreal team that’s lost 3 of their last 4 games, all 3 of those losses at home in Montreal, where this game will be played. Lehtonen is coming off of a bad performance, and Montreal has been scoring a bit more than usual lately, but Lehtonen tends to bounce back nicely after a bad game. Also, you’ve got to remember that in their very last game, Montreal lost 3-1 at home to New Jersey. In this case, I’ll go with Lehtonen at a moderate price for a goalie to pick up a road win against a somewhat inconsistent Montreal team.

Jonas Gustavsson, $13,805: At first, this seems like a crazy pick. The Devils have been scoring plenty lately, with an average of 3.33 Goals Per Game in February, while Toronto has allowed 3.11 GPG this month. But, here’s another situation where a goalie looks bad because of his GAA when his SV% is actually pretty good. In other words, he faces a lot more shots than most goalies, which is a good thing for fantasy purposes. Toronto is 10th in the NHL with 30.8 Shots Allowed Per Game and 4th in February with 32.4 Shots Allowed/Game in 9 games. Now, his last 3 games have been awful all around, so that’s where this becomes a bit of a gamble. But, in his last 3 games versus the Devils, he’s 3-0 with a 1.667 GAA and a .939 Save Percentage. So, I’m hoping he gets back on track tonight at home versus a team he’s had success against in the past. For only $13,805, the margin of error is larger than usual.

Martin Brodeur, $19,705: It worries me a little that it’s on the road and Brodeur’s almost 20K now after being much more of a bargain recently. But, I can’t ignore his 9.58 FPPG and .9586 Save Percentage over his last 5 games. He’s only allowed 4 Goals over his last 3 games. His stats aren’t very good against Toronto overall this year, but they were skewed a lot by the 1st game against them in which he gave up 5 goals. In the 2nd game on December 6th, he had a great game, with a .935 SV% and about 9 Fantasy Points in a 3-2 OT win in Toronto. I know I just recommended Gustavsson, but if it turns into a goalie duel and/or lots of shots are taken, both goalies could do very well tonight in Toronto!

This next pick is an “if he plays” pick because he has not been confirmed yet.

Antti Niemi, $16,147: This pick is mostly because I expect the Sharks to have a big game to turn around their recent road losing streak. In his last game against Columbus, Niemi scored 14 FP with a 6-0 shutout win and 30 Saves. In his last 3 games vs. Columbus, Niemi is 3-0 with a 1.333 GAA and .962 Save Percentage. Looks amazing just from that, but Niemi and the Sharks defense have been struggling a lot lately, so keep that in mind if he does play tonight.

Phew! Goalies are always the hardest to write about because of all the factors involved. But, there are still a lot of players to go over, so let’s get right back to the stats!

- Skaters (Forwards and Defensemen) –

John Moore, $1,802: Sometimes to save money we have to use our imagination a bit. It seems crazy to recommend the cheapest guy on the board, but when you look into it a bit more, it might not be that bad of an idea. Moore’s only 21 and this is really his 1st real NHL season. He played 2 games last year, doing nothing much in those games. But, this year, he’s averaged .81 FPPG. Most of this comes from the 55 Blocked Shots and 49 Shots on Goal he has this year, which is worth about .65 FPPG alone. He does have 2 Goals and 4 Assists, but with that level of production it’s hard to say when the next one will come. It’s as good a time as any tonight though, as the Sharks are 3rd worst in the NHL defensively in February with an average of 3.56 Goals Per Game Allowed. So give Moore a shot and enjoy having so much extra cash to spend on better players!

Zbynek Michalek, $3,358: Scoring 1.44 FPPG almost justifies the pick in itself for a guy who’s $3,358. But, he does block a lot of shots, with nearly 2 per game this year and 7 alone this past Sunday against Buffalo. He has 55 Shots, 1 Goal, and 5 Assists in 39 games this year. If you’re looking for a goal it might be a bit of a stretch. But, when Michalek last played the Rangers, he scored 1.9 Fantasy Points without even a goal or assist. The Rangers have been playing well defensively lately, but I look for the Penguins to rebound big-time after that 5-2 loss to Buffalo, recalling in their minds that last game against the Rangers that they won 4-1 in New York.

Paul Martin, $3,688: When I was writing about Michalek, I happened upon Martin and saw how cheaply he was priced. There was a time not very long ago that Martin had a goal or assist in what seemed like every game. It’s been 5 games now since his last goal or assist, but in that 4-1 win against the Rangers on January 19th, he had 1 Assist and ended up scoring 3.8 Fantasy Points. If he doesn’t repeat that tonight, he still can score some FP, with 70 SOG and 86 Blocked Shots in 52 games this year.

Niklas Hjalmarsson, $2,019: We’re not just sellin’ ‘em, we’re givin’ ‘em away! He’s the 3rd cheapest D-man today and there’s a good reason for that. He is considered Day-to-Day and may not play. But, he’s supposed to come back any day now, maybe even today. Hjalmarrson’s usually a player who costs about $4,000, sometimes even more. And, hey, if he doesn’t play, at least he can’t score negative points on you! Plus, you’ll intimidate people in your league by making them think you’re a wild gambler who throws caution to the wind. If you want to play it safe, just keep an eye out for late reports that he’s going to play.

Mark Eaton, $1,954: Since we’re on ultra-cheap players right now, Eaton has a better chance than usual to score some points, just because a lot of Islanders players have good stats against Buffalo so his chance of getting involved is a bit higher. In 44 games this year, he has 30 Shots on Goal and 90 Blocked Shots, which has been most of the reason behind his .93 FPPG on the season. His last Assist came in his 6th game back against LA, while his last goal came his 10th game back against Ottawa. So, perhaps he is due for one of those.

Tommy Wingels, $7,774: It’s tough to recommend a rookie who’s only played 13 games now. But, Wingels has 2 Goals and 2 Assists in those first 13 games, with 1 Goal and 1 Assist coming in his 3rd game back. In that 6-5 loss to Tampa Bay, Wingels scored a career-high 7 Fantasy Points. He’s had 2 bad games in a row fantasy-wise, but those were against 2 teams playing very well right now, Carolina and Detroit. He’s on the 1st line right now with Pavelski and Thornton and both of them have great numbers against Columbus. Osmosis is on his side. Another positive thing possibly is that he’s listed as an RW on some sites, and LW on other sites, and Draftstreet for one has him listed as a C. So, that could help as well if you specifically need a cheaper Center. It also helps that the Sharks are scoring 3.33 GPG this month, while Columbus is allowing 2.89 GPG.

Joe Pavelski, $12,431: Pretty obvious pick here, so I’ll keep it short. In his last game against Columbus, he scored 7.7 FP with 1 Goal and 1 Assist. He had a monster 14.4 Fantasy Point game 4 games back, then two bad games against tougher opponents, then a decent game with 1 Assist and 3.4 FP against Detroit. He’s one of the more consistent scorers, with 3.61 FPPG on the year and 4.07 FPPG in his last 7 games. I like his chances of repeating that last performance against Columbus.

Pretty much any San Jose Shark, especially Joe Thornton ($11,555), Ryane Clowe ($11,754), Logan Couture ($13,235), Patrick Marleau ($12,129), Michal Handzus ($5,211), Dan Boyle ($10,729), and Brent Burns ($10,184): All of these guys except for Burns scored 4.7 Fantasy Points or more in that last game against Columbus, a 6-0 win. That was at home, while this in Columbus, but the thing is, the Sharks have been scoring goals on this road trip. They’ve lost 3 games in a row by exactly 1 goal, despite scoring 9 goals overall in them. So, they’ll be looking to bounce back against a team like Columbus that they know they can chase off the ice. Burns only had 2.2 Fantasy Points in that 6-0 win vs. Columbus, but he’s been producing a lot more FP than usual over the past month, so he’s worth considering for tonight. It should be noted that in that last game with Columbus most of Boyle’s points were from 15 Penalty Minutes. He got a 5 Minute Major for Fighting with Derrick Brassard, then a 10-minute Misconduct for the same incident, so there could be some bad blood there which may lead to some more PIM points for takers of Boyle. Boyle has also been producing lately though, with 2 Goals, 3 Assists, and 3.33 FPPG over his last 6 games. Thornton had the biggest game of any Shark in that big 6-0 win, with 11.30 Fantasy Points, coming mostly from 2 Goals and 1 Assist. Handzus is a 3rd liner, but he seems to have a special ability to score more often versus Columbus. In his last 7 games against them, he has 2 Goals and 5 Assists. In that last one, he had 1 Goal and 1 Assist.

Justin Braun, $5,051, or Jason Demers, $5,244: I know these guys are also Sharks, but I listed them separately because they’re cheaper defensemen and much riskier plays than the others. This would be more of a gamble, hoping to get lucky for just 1 game at 1 spot. Demers is the better pick of the 2, with 3 Assists in his last 6 games vs. Columbus, and 2 in the game played on January 5th, in which he scored 5.1 Fantasy Points. He also has 11 points in 36 games, whereas Braun only has 8 points in 43 games. Braun takes more shots and blocks more shots however. Braun has 1 Assist in 3 games vs. Columbus. He scored 5.75 Fantasy Points in that last game against them, also scoring points from 5 Penalty Minutes for Fighting with Fedor Tyutin. So, again, perhaps there’s some bad blood there as well. I know these two are a bit of a reach, but it’s not like things never repeat themselves at all in hockey.

Henrik Sedin, $12,799 and Daniel Sedin, $15,029: The Sedins have been on fire lately, but Henrik is about $2,200 cheaper than Daniel, even though he has more points than Daniel on the season. The reason is that Daniel scores more goals, but still I think Daniel shouldn’t be that much more expensive. Henrik has 2 Goals and 11 Assists in his last 13 games vs. Nashville. Daniel wouldn’t be a terrible pick either at $15,029, as he has 5 Goals and 8 Assists in his last 13 games vs. Nashville. Nashville hasn’t been as strong defensively as usual lately, allowing 2.63 GPG in February. And, when these two teams have gotten together so far this year, it’s usually been a higher scoring affair.

Alexandre Burrows, $11,786: He’s basically the third Sedin, the other member of the top line in Vancouver. In his last 3 games, he has 3 Goals and 2 Assists. His last 3 fantasy scores were 5.5, 7.7, and 5.1 Fantasy Points. He has 1 Goal and 1 Assist in his last 2 games versus Nashville.

Rick Nash, $12,672: He has 2 Goals and 4 Assists in his last 7 games, averaging 3.37 FPPG over that period. He has 5 Goals in his last 7 games versus San Jose. Though Columbus has continued to struggle lately, if you look at Nash’s profile, he’s really picked up the pace with goals and assists in the last month. One good thing about mismatches in hockey is that often times you’ll have a good player on the losing team just say “I can’t take this anymore!” and score that 1 or 2 goals that the losing team gets on the board. Nash should be that guy tonight, especially considering that San Jose has allowed 3.56 Goals Per Game so far this month.

Teddy Purcell, $8,751: He has 1 Goal and 7 Assists in his last 7 games. In his last game against Anaheim, he had 1 Assist. In 4 of his last 5, he’s scored 3.4 FP or more and in 3 of those 5 he’s scored 4.2 or more FP. Anaheim’s been playing a lot better defensively the past month or so, but they still allow 2.75 Goals Per Game this season.

Wayne Simmonds, $14,022: He’s gotten a little expensive with all the scoring he’s done lately. But, he’s moved up to the 1st line with Hartnell and Giroux, who both rack up a lot of goals and assists versus Winnipeg. And he’s right up there with them, as he’s scored 4 Goals and 2 Assists in his last 6 games. He’s scored 4.48 Fantasy Points Per Game in his last 6 games, which is slightly more than Giroux. 2 of the 3 games these two teams have played this year were very high-scoring, with 27 goals scored in the first 2 games between Winnipeg and Philadelphia this year. So, you might want to consider a lot of players from these two teams tonight. I want to give credit to fellow blogger “Mprestop” for pointing out to me that Simmonds was moving up to the 1st line tonight. Thanks for the tip, Presto!

Magnus Paajarvi, $6,265: This dude got on my nerves for a while, because he was “vulturing” goals off of Eberle and Hall. Well, he’s not on their line, but you know… You’re watching the game or online scoreboard and you’re all excited because you see that someone scored and you have both Hall and Eberle, and you look and see “Goal, Paajarvi” or “Goal, Gagner, Assist, Paajarvi” and you’re like “Paajarvi?!?!? What?! Who even is that!?” Sometimes I’ll have just Eberle or Hall separately and somehow Paajarvi gets a goal or assist involving the other one I didn’t have! Anyway, I’ve finally given in and recognized that Paajarvi does score goals and get assists. He’s no Gagner, but he’s picked it up a bit lately, scoring 2 Goals and 2 Assists in his last 4 games, with an average of 3.22 FPPG over that period. He’s done well against Calgary specifically, with 4 Goals and 2 Assists against the Flames in his last 8 games against them.

Duncan Keith, $9,045: Keith has had 2 big games back to back now, with 1 Goal and 2 Assists in his last 3 games. He’s scored 1 Goal with 4 Assists in his last 9 games versus Detroit. Keith has scored 3.23 FPPG over his last 7 games. He scores nearly 1.2 Fantasy Points every game just from shots and blocked shots alone. Detroit’s won their last 6 games in a row at home to add to their 23-game home winning streak. This is their first game on the road after that 6-game homestand. In their last 5 road games, Detroit has allowed 19 goals or 3.8 Goals Per Game. Jimmy Howard is returning to the ice tonight after not playing since February 2nd. This year, Howard is 1-1 with a 2.44 GAA and .909 Save Percentage against Chicago.

Bobby Ryan, $9,517: It’s hard to figure what Bobby Ryan’s going to do each game this year. But, he’s had a good game pretty much every other game in his last 8 games. The Ducks have picked up their scoring a lot lately, but Ryan has been hot and cold still. Tonight, however, they face the worst defensive team in the league, Tampa Bay. Tampa’s allowed 3.31 Goals Per Game on the season and 3.00 GPG in 9 games so far in February. Ryan had 1 Assist, a +1 rating, and 3 Shots in his last game, scoring 3.4 FP. He had a very similar night 2 games before that, and has generally been picking up his scoring pace over the past 2 weeks.

Jannik Hansen, $7,944: This is more of a short term solution or sleeper pick, but Hansen has had 1 Goal and 2 Assists in his last 3 games. His last 3 fantasy scores have been 4.2, 3.1, and 3.1. Vancouver is one of the more higher scoring teams, so even though he’s a 3rd liner, he’s going to get in on some of the scoring. As I mentioned earlier, recently games between Vancouver and Nashville have been higher scoring. This is actually Hansen’s most productive season of his career so far.

Matt Moulson ($10,436), John Tavares ($12,900), Kyle Okposo ($6,724), Michael Grabner ($5,936), and Frans Nielsen ($6,722): I was going to write these guys up separately, but frankly I’m running out of time. As usual, it’s rough on these nights with so many games. If you check into it, you’ll see that all of these guys score more goals and get more assists than usual against the Sabres. Moulson and Tavares both have 10 points in 7 games against Buffalo. Moulson is a great deal at $10,436, as you’re getting a top line winger in a great matchup at only about $10,000. Nielsen had a very big game in his last game against Buffalo, scoring 1 Goal with 1 Assist and 10 Fantasy Points. He also has 3 Goals in his last 5 games. Nielsen has 2 Goals and 5 Assists in his last 6 games vs. Buffalo, while Okposo has 1 Goal and 5 Assists vs. Buffalo in his last 6 games. Michael Grabner, though it seems rather shocking at first, has 8 Goals and 2 Assists in his last 7 games vs. Buffalo. Though Miller’s been playing very well lately, Buffalo still struggles in keeping the puck out of the net, allowing 2.90 Goals Per Game on the season and 2.56 GPG so far in February. Before the big 6-2 win over the Penguins on Sunday, Buffalo had allowed 13 goals combined in the previous 3 games. I should mention again here that the Islanders just got crushed by Ottawa 6-0 last night. To me, it was more of a fluke that it was that bad of a game, and should serve more to fire the Islanders up to play a good game against a Buffalo team they’ve had success against recently.

Well, that’s it for now. There are still a bunch of players out there who are very likely to make an impact tonight, but I can’t go over them all! Good luck!