Baseball 2012: Same Faces, New Places (AL East Preview)

BASEBALL! BASEBALL! BASEBALL! BASEBALL!!

Now that that’s out of the way, it’s hard to believe that it’s time for pitchers and catchers already. The off-season inexplicably seemed so short, yet also so long both at the same time. Wasn’t it both yesterday and also ages ago that David Freese line drive to right was mis-played by Nelson Cruz.

Yet anyway, here we are, prepping for another long fantasy season where more player decisions over more games are possible than in any other sport. Over the next month or so, it is this writer’s intention to use his space on the RG blogosphere to look at all the faces changing places across the league since we last saw them. New uniforms will be the main focus of these writings with a sprinkling of sleepers or things to watch for where necessary.

Player and depth chart info are found with the help of mlbdepthcharts.com with many statistics used herein coming courtesy of fangraphs.com, while other opinion…y(?) looking phrases contained within probably flew directly out of the author’s arse. Park factors from statcorner.com. So going in order of predicted finish (or maybe it’s alphabetical, I forget), we begin:

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

2011 park factors LHB/RHB: wOBA 104/105, HR 118/123

New Faces: INF/DH Wilson Betemit, OF Endy Chavez, C Taylor Teagarden, RHP Jason Hammel, LHP Wei-Yin Chen, LHP Tsuyoshi Wada, RHP Matt Lindstrom

There’s not much to see here. The Orioles brought in a few guys this season, but nobody that you can really call impactful. In fact, it’s not even a given that any of these guys have locked up roles as of yet. The Orioles are pretty much resigned to the fact that they’re going nowhere this year in a beast of a division and decided not to waste too much money or resources for marginal improvement.

Fantasy Impact: Betemit and Chavez are fringe starters at best. Chavez had somewhat of a resurgence in Texas last year and could platoon with Nolan Reimold in left. However, Endy Chavez real value has always been defense and speed. He has very little power and a career 78 wRC+ vs RHP, which pretty much makes him more useful as a defensive replacement than as part of a platoon if the Orioles are smart….and therefore just about totally useLESS in fantasy. Although, he could begin the season in RF if Nick Markakis can’t answer the bell from off-season surgery.

For Betemit, his BABIP was an unsustainable .391 last year, exactly 50 points above his career average. He does move from pitcher friendly parks in KC and Detroit last year to hitter friendly Camden Yards so there could be a slight increase in power and balls leaving the yard, but that’s likely minimal unless he somehow gets 600 AB’s which shouldn’t happen because he’s pretty terrible vs LHP. Yet, he may provide some cheap value vs weak RHP at home.

Jason Hammel can have some upside leaving Colorado, but moving to Camden to play the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays 1/3 of the time isn’t going to help him. His K% plummeted last year and his SIERA (ERA predictor of sorts) and xFIP were 4.85 and 4.83 respectively. Probably best to leave him be.

Otherwise it’s too early to figure out the 2 Japanese imports, Lindstrom will likely set-up and insure if Johnson falters as closer, and Teagarden is a RH hitting back-up to a catcher who smokes LHP.

What Else?: Adam Jones has what looks to be a pretty real reverse split, hitting RHP better than LHP last year (120/79 wRC+) and for his career (107/77 wRC+). His overall wRC+ over the past 5 years: 85, 85, 103, 103, 110. Doesn’t take an expert pattern detector to see what I’m thinking for 2012.

Matt Wieters also had a 110 wRC+ last year so is he finally becoming the offensive player everyone always thought he was going to be? His BABIP was 25 points below his career average while his ISO was 38 points higher. That’s a good sign in case you didn’t know. His best value, however, is that he absolutely smokes LHP (.472 wOBA, 201 wRC+ LY)!!!

Jim Johnson only has a 0.35 difference in his LH/RH batter FIP splits. Buck Showalter is toying with the idea of putting him in the rotation. If so, Lindstrom becomes the favorite to close….but of course you need a lead first for any of that to matter.

BOSTON RED SOX

2011 park factors LHB/RHB: wOBA 104/107, HR 79/94

New Faces: OF Cody Ross, OF Ryan Sweeney, CL Andrew Bailey, RHP Mark Melancon

Everybody’s shocked when they first see those park factors, including myself. Just take a look at that LHB HR #. The new CBA is having a very real affect on the usual big spenders. Luxory tax penalties are much stiffer and as a result neither the Yankees or the Red Sox were very active for premium free agents this winter. Consider that the Sox traded away their starting shortstop without a replacement and severely low balled Edwin Jackson and Roy Oswalt despite a dire need for starting pitching.

Fantasy Impact: Sweeney and Ross are best utilized as a platoon option in RF, but due to Carl Crawford off-season wrist surgery, either one or both might get more AB’s than the Sox are comfortable with. Both are coming from severe pitcher’s parks on the West Coast and Ross’s power numbers took a big hit playing in SF particularly. While he actually hit RHP better last year, Cody Ross is really a lefty crusher throughout his career (.281 ISO, .384 wOBA, 135 wRC+). You can still probably use him vs LHP at home and watch him play pepper with the Green Monster. And considering the season he’s coming off of, the price should be right, especially if he’s subjected to playing vs RHP early to balance it out.

Ryan Sweeney will probably be just as average as he’s always been against RHP and a complete non-entity vs LHP. There’s really not much to see here unless you need someone to fill out your lineup dirt cheap.

Of current projected closers who have faced over 500 batters in their career, Andrew Bailey has the highest career split difference with his FIP being 1.57 points higher vs LHB. You are not going to want to take him against the Yankees, which you probably wouldn’t do anyway. His career FIP and xFIP are almost twice as high on the road as they were at home in Oakland. However, with what we now know about park factors at Fenway, this might not be as bad as it seems. It’s probably still best to tread with caution and only even consider him vs right handed predominant lineups in pitcher’s parks.

Mark Melancon is a decent pitcher, but has similar split issues and would need Bailey to fall off a cliff or get injured before getting a shot to close.

What Else?: We pretty much know who these guys are when healthy. Ellsbury’s really good, but it would be crazy to expect the entire increase in power that came out of nowhere last year to remain intact. Youkilis is showing signs of breaking down, but can still hit.

Perhaps, most intriguing is that Jarrod Saltalamacchia has shown noticeable power vs RHP (.235 ISO LY), but strikes out a crap ton (33.1%) against them and doesn’t walk much either. I wonder what it would look like if you went through an entire season with a Wieters/Salty platoon.

It looks like there’s going to be a Daniel Bard rotation experiment, but pitchers pitch so much differently in the bullpen than they do in a starting role that these things are almost impossible to project.

NEW YORK YANKEES

2011 park factors LHB/RHB: wOBA 103/100, HR 143/115

New Faces: DH Russell Branyan, RHP Michael Pineda, RHP Hiroki Kuroda

Much like the rival Red Sox, the Yankees didn’t open the vault this off-season despite pitching needs. Perhaps due to the new CBA, they decided to be creative and were dead silent this winter except for a single day where they significantly upgraded their pitching staff with 2 moves.

Fantasy Impact: Unless the Yankees aren’t done, which is definitely possible, Russell Branyan is currently the lead candidate for DH AB’s vs RHP. If Branyan fits with anybody, it’s probably the Yankees and that RF porch. He had a .190 ISO in 133 PA’s vs RHP last year. He’ll also walk on occasion (12%). That’s it. He’ll launch one every 20-30 PA’s, but he struck out in 32% of PA’s that he didn’t homer or receive a free pass. Your only upside here, if he even makes the team or lasts more than a month, is flyball pitchers with control issues at Yankee Stadium.

Michael Pineda has been the most talked about non-FA acquisition of the off-season and it’s really intriguing too. He’ll obviously see an increase in the uncontrollable stat of Wins, but he couldn’t possibly be pitching in a more different atmosphere than he did in Seattle. How will he react? Many will reference Pineda’s second half “slump”, but that may be the very thing that could help him succeed in NY. While his ERA ballooned in the 2nd half as many people claimed he wore down, his peripherals actually improved. His velocity remained steady, while his K% INCREASED slightly and his xFIP DECREASED over half a run! Perhaps, most importantly for his new digs, his GB% in the 1st half was 30.9%, but improved to 44% in the second half. That might just save him in Yankee Stadium if the trend continues.

More strangeness…Pineda’s Home/Road splits. ERA 2.92/4.40. Product of his environment, right? Well..NO! He threw 77 innings at Safeco surrendering 9 HR’s, 2.93 K/BB, an unsustainable .220 BABIP, 3.62 FIP, 3.51 xFIP. On the road he threw 94 innings with the same 9 HR’s allowed, 3.37 K/BB, a .286 BABIP, a 3.26 FIP, and 3.55 xFIP. He was almost the same pitcher or even slightly better on the road. The big difference was a 77.5% strand rate at home as opposed to 64.4% on the road. In other words, probably luck.

All that said, and I realize we’re talking more about him than we probably will any other player throughout these previews, he’s still pretty much a 2 trick pony (fastball, slider) and even his new GM acknowledges that if he doesn’t develop his change-up it could be a long season for the new Yankee. First of all, sliders are taxing on the arm and he throws a lot of them, so there’s the injury concern. Then there’s also a very real 3.24/3.82 xFIP RHB/LHB split. Find a way to deal with LHB or facing the Red Sox won’t be pretty.

Overall, expect Pineda to be a little less than he was in Seattle with more Wins, but still a significant amount of K’s. Balls that miss bats can’t make it over the RF wall, even in Yankee Stadium. In the end though, his success will depend on if his GB increase is sustainable and the development of an out pitch against LHB.

Lastly, we come to Hiroki Kuroda who’ll be the #3 man. Like Pineda, Kuroda moves from a weaker offensive division and more pitcher friendly stadium to the beast that is Yankee Stadium and the AL East. The good news is a career 48.6% GB rate and 2.1 BB/9 rate. But, similarly, Kuroda has strong RHB/LHB splits. His K% (20.7/15.1) drops more than 5%, his BB% (4.7/6.6) goes up almost 2%, and his xFIP (3.15/4.14) goes up almost exactly a full run vs LHB. He’s not going to repeat his Dodger stadium numbers, but if a fairly league average pitcher with an ERA around 4 doesn’t bother you, then he should still be ok and also win more games in a Yankee uniform.

What Else?: Again, we know who they are. A-Rod and Jeter are another year older. Even Teixeira is showing signs of slowing down, although that RF porch will mask that somewhat. It would take a lot for me to consider him in road games very often this year. Their prices will still be inflated because they’re the Yankees, so buyer beware.

Ivan Nova probably isn’t as good as he was last year, but there’s no pressure being #4. If Burnett is traded and Phil Hughes velocity stabilizes in the low 90’s, he could be a strong bounce-back candidate. The Yankees also have some good young arms on the way who may or may not get some starts this year.

David Robertson has done the unthinkable and remains a very under-rated Yankee, who has no shot in hell of closing out games as long as Mariano Rivera can make it to the mound. If Soriano returns to form, the Yankee bullpen could be complete shut down for opposing offenses after the 6th, which is something to think about when choosing a lineup which includes players facing them.

TAMPA BAY RAYS

2011 park factors LHB/RHB: wOBA 96/96, HR 89/92

New Faces: 1B Carlos Pena, OF/DH Luke Scott, C Jose Molina, IF Jeff Keppinger, RHP Fernando Rodney

We come to our 1st, and only, pitcher’s park in the AL East. But one has to wonder if the high quality of pitching and defense that calls this park home doesn’t help inflate (or should I say deflate) these numbers slightly more than they would be with an entirely neutral team inhabiting it. As usual, the Rays are mostly about the younger players moving through the system and contributing to the big team instead of big name acquisitions. As a result, we’ll probably have more to say about some 2nd year players later than new faces.

Fantasy Impact: Carlos Pena should be easy enough. He took a 1 year vacation to Chicago where his power numbers increased and now he’s back in Tampa. You can take a look at his numbers from last year, regress them a bit for going back to a tougher ballpark and for being another year older, then also factor in what he did in his last year in the dome 2 years ago. It isn’t pretty, is it? I don’t expect much from this move, but Rays management knows what they’re doing.

Luke Scott is coming off a shoulder injury and in fact is still questionable to start the season. Shoulder injuries greatly impact a player’s power and compound that with the fact that he always hit much better at Camden as an Oriole and I’m not sure what the Rays expect here either. In fact, in the last 3 years, his home ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ greatly exceed his road numbers. This is another buy low and hope for the best project for the Rays. If he’s healthy he might hit some HR’s, but he won’t be on my radar often.

Jose Molina high wOBA (.334) and wRC+ (109) in Toronto last year. Also a career high .363 BABIP, 70 points above his career average. Next!

Interesting stat about Jeff Keppinger. He walked 0 times and struck out only 4 times in 96 plate appearances vs LHP in 2011. He had his lowest wOBA (.330) and wRC+ (108) vs LHP since 2006 LY. His ISO (.194) vs them, however, was the 1st time it was over .138 in 4 years. Strange. Still, I expect Keppinger to hit a lot of line drive singles vs LHP’s and not much more.

I won’t waste anymore space discussing Fernando Rodney.

What Else? Matt Moore and Desmond Jennings! That’s what else! Then there are also small matters concerning Evan Longoria and Jeremy Hellickson.

We can essentially treat the 1st 2 as new faces due to abbreviated ML action in 2011. Desmond Jennings came up and immediately set the world on fire for a month before plowing smack into a brick wall in the last month of the season. The saber community cried that his initial success wasn’t sustainable all along, but neither was his emphatic fall. Consider his LD% stayed essentially the same as his FB% increased in September. My best guess is that he hit 7 HR’s in August and thought he was a slugger. It happens to a lot of young players. Now the good news: He walks more than 10% of the time and strikes out around 20%. If we expect both of those to improve at least slightly then we also have a player with speed, moderate power, and no discernible split between RHP/LHP. This is definitely somebody to like.

If Jennings is somebody to like, Matt Moore is somebody to love. Moore is perhaps generating more excitement than any young pitcher in the game, including Stephen Strasburg. He kind of snuck up on a lot of people early in his professional career due to control problems. But he’s improved each year to where he’s walking less than 3 per 9 IP now while having better than a 30% K rate at every level, including the majors last year. Unfortunately, he’s now the worst kept secret in baseball and will likely be priced as such. But have no fear, he’s the real deal.

Evan Longoria had what many traditionalists would consider a sub-par season LY due to a .244 AVG. He was bothered by a lingering injury early on and plagued by an absurd .239 BABIP. He still managed to hit 31 HR in 133 games with a .251 ISO and 134 wRC+. There is absolutely nothing to worry about from a healthy Longo here. Hopefully he will even be under-valued in some spots.

Jeremy Hellickson is a strange case in that he was a player who everyone generally liked a lot early, yet struggled with his periphals, but still won ROY due to an outstanding defense behind him. His 15.1 K% and 9.3 BB% were way worse than at any stage through the minors and his .223 BABIP is ridiculous. It won’t happen again. His ERA was 2.95, but both his xFIP and SIERA were over 4.7. He did have a strong 9.7 Swinging Strike % though which is pretty strong and confuses things even more. The SwStr % makes one optimistic that his K-rate could rebound and his regression not be so profound in 2012 as one would otherwise expect from a pitcher with those numbers. I’d still suggest staying away from him early, as he may be over-priced, until seeing where he falls.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

2011 park factors LHB/RHB: wOBA 100/100, HR 114/116

New Faces: C Jeff Mathis, IF Omar Vizquel, CL Sergio Santos, CL Francisco Cordero, LHP Darren Oliver, RHP Jason Frasor

A lot of people thought that the Jays were going to be active players this off-season, perhaps even in the Prince Fielder Pujols(player-profile)”:/fantasyplayers/Albert_Pujols-10322 sweepstakes, but all they did was rebuild their bullpen just about entirely. They made most of their major moves at the trade deadline last year, acquiring Colby Rasmus and Kelly Johnson.

Fantasy Impact: Mathis and Vizquel will have minimal impact and may not even last the season.

Although I listed both as CL, Sergio Santos gets 1st crack at that role in 2012. We like Santos. His ERA was 3.55 LY, but both his xFIP (2.65) and SIERA (2.25) were much more impressive. He’s going from a hitter’s park to a hitter’s park so there’s not much of a worry there. It’s even less of a worry when you look at his strikeout rates. When you strike out 92 in 63.1 innings, well, the opposition has a hard time getting base hits when they can’t make contact. The only small concern is a bit of a wild streak. Santos walked 29 unintentionally, hit 3, and uncorked 5 wild pitches. But the 35.4 K% plays to one of the best in the majors.

Francisco Cordero won’t likely see many Save opportunities this year and his rapidly declining K rate (33%, 25.4%, 21%, 18.7%, 15.3% L5Y) greatly limits his fantasy usefulness even more. It’s all smoke and mirrors now and the Yankees and Red Sox are known for their patience. Why do you think their games always last 5 hours? Darren Oliver also has minimal to no fantasy relevance. Jason Frasor has been here before.

What Else?: Where this team gets tricky is evaluating and projecting almost all of their returning talent. There aren’t really any long term track records of success. And by long term, I mean more than 2 years. I mean, tell me that a lot of people aren’t at least a little concerned about Jose Bautista coming back to earth or even flat out falling on his face at some point, despite a profile that says otherwise.

When you look at this entire team (excluding those mentioned above) there are really only 2 people I would call safe, as in we confidently know who they are. Those would be Yunel Escobar and Ricky Romero. Everyone else is probably a risk to some degree, whether it be small or a large amount of WTF are they? Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil, Henderson Alvarez, Dustin McGowan, Kyle Drabek, Adam Lind, Brett Lawrie, Colby Rasmus, Travis Snider you know who these guys are this year? Combine that with the possibility of several other youngsters in their system being just about major league ready and it makes this entire team difficult to confidently predict. There’s a lot to like, but little to trust.

That’s your 2012 AL East. Be back with the AL Central in about a week.