Daily Fantasy Golf: PGA Tour Northern Trust Open Preview

Well, I finally made it back for the PGA Tour 2012 season. In January I think it’s hard to tell which golfers have been practicing and which have been taking the winter break less serious. I hate to pick a fantasy lineup because it seems to be mostly a guessing game that early. Last year it was Mark Wilson that started hot, this year it was Johnson Wagner. You just never can tell and for that reason I skip it. I did however, get in some small action the last two weeks to get my feet wet and am finally ready to dive in for the season starting with the Northern Trust Open.

Players to Avoid: Northern Trust

Phil Mickelson ($36,208): Phil is coming off a great final round at Pebble and earning his fist win of 2012, doing it along side Tiger Woods in his grouping. When Phil gets hot, he is obviously one of the best in the world so it would not be surprising to see him near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday of this week. Most players have such a mentally draining few days during a win, I try not to back them the next week unless there is significant value in my eyes, but Lefty has won so many times, he knows how to handle that situation easily. There are 2 problems I have with Mickelson here though:

1) His price tag. $36k? Are you kidding me? By the rankings, he is the 3rd best player at the tournament, but has a price tag of almost 8k more than the next guy, Luke Donald. If we were to take Mickelson in this spot, we would be left with 12,800 to spend on average for the remaining 5 guys. Sure, some in the GPP will hit lightning in a bottle with some lower ranked players, but that is just too much to ask.

2) The 2nd problem is his consistency. Before last week, he had to fly Butch Harmon, his swing coach, to him after the Waste Management tournament because he was performing so poorly. Really, it’s just not worth the risk for me at this price.

Luke Donald ($28,807): Donald is the 2nd highest priced player this week and for good reason as he is ranked #1 in the world right now. Just like Phil, I could see him having a huge week but there are 2 main problems I have with him as well.

1) This is his first tournament in America this year. He might have jet lag, different grasses, time zones, different weather conditions etc. etc. etc. Granted, these guys are accustomed to flying all over the world to play golf, but I don’t like taking someone traveling so much the week of a tournament. For instance, look at baseball, basketball, and/or football when you have a team flying to the east or west coast for games. The oddsmakers usually set the line accordingly, and this difference for Donald is way more than a few hours across the country.

2) The 2nd problem I have with Donald is that he missed the cut here last year. Sometimes certain courses fit the eye of golfers, other times they don’t. Usually if a golfer doesn’t like the course that much, they won’t schedule that event the following year. So while it is a good sign for Donald backers that he is back, I can’t take him this week with how poorly he performed last year.

Players to Watch: Northern Trust

Aaron Baddeley ($24,570): Baddeley was one of my go-to guys to end the season last year and last week he climbed into contention where he recorded a top 5 finish (4th). Add to this, he won the Northern Trust last year and hasn’t missed a cut at this tournament in 9 appearances, I really like him at this price tag. Of course its very hard to defend a title, but I at least see a strong showing from him as his ball striking has been great so far this year.

Dustin Johnson ($20,847): In a head to head matchup for the tournament between Mickelson/Johnson, I’d choose Johnson almost all the time in a non-major. I am getting $18,000 extra for my other picks this week if I take him so it seems like a no-brainer if you ask me. Health has been a concern for Johnson, but he recorded a T5th last week, and ranked high in almost all major statistical categories. Like Donald he missed the cut last year which is worrisome; however, he was 3rd in 2010 and 10th in 2009.

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Good luck to everyone this week.