Daily Fantasy Sports World: The Future Of Sleepers

Recently in the forums, a post went up to “discuss the lack of “fish” in daily fantasy sports”:http://rotogrinders.com/threads/No_Fish_in_Daily_Fantasy-30414. The dilemma begins with a belief that the plethora of knowledge available to every new daily fantasy player has made the game to become more about luck and less about knowledge and skill. Sites such as this one post their ideal lineups for each website along with other fantasy driven research to aide their loyal followers. Thus, there are no more “fish” to be eaten up by the once dominant sharks in larger leagues. There is still separation in the sense that better players will risk more money and join more pricey leagues, but the talent in the lower echelons of daily fantasy sports is increasing.

So with this I feel the need to look at the future of the most valuable asset to a daily fantasy player; the sleeper. The sleeper represents the one or two guys in a lineup that allow for the remainder of your lineup to be bolstered with more expensive talent. The increasing availability of knowledge has made the popular sleeper picks really easy to spot, especially in the NBA leagues this season. Guys like Jeremy Lin barely play 5 minutes without a full report on his fantasy projections and capabilities. A week later, Lin has doubled or tripled in price and players are searching for his replacement in the lower levels of salary.

So here’s a few ways of utilizing the sleeper play that might separate you from the pack, and how I see the future of sleepers unfolding.

THE SLEEPER CYCLE

The fantasy websites you are accustomed to playing on increase player salaries based on their statistics, but also as a factor of popularity. Granted these two factors go hand in hand, but as a player increases in salary, the number of players taking him declines. One thing about sleeper picks is that they are tasty when they cost less, but a higher salary makes them a sleeper play at a consistent players’ price. Therefore they are ignored by more and more people as they rise. Eventually, the newest sleeper pick comes in and that player, who was once taken by all, drops back to a reasonable rate. This could be the secret to finding your own sleepers. Let’s make one thing clear; if a player is hot and cheap, you need to jump on it because if you don’t everyone else will and they will eat you alive. But when the player who once offered you value goes through the up and down cycle, and comes back to a reasonable price, it is not the worst idea to return to him for some consistent cheap success. Sleepers are like a fad, they are popular for awhile but eventually they are thrown away for the next new thing. So go back to your historical bargain bin and see when the player you once utilized is reasonable again, then jump on him when everyone else has forgotten.

THE BOLD MOVE

Injuries tend to be a huge component in selecting sleepers. There’s no big secret here; injured players offer other guys a chance to fill a big role. But when everyone moves to one specific injury for their value, you might be able to maximize a unique opportunity. Find other fill-ins for injured players that will play a big role, ones that are not necessarily as popular as others. And to find out which ones are popular, you just need to read message boards, forums, chat rooms, etc. See who everyone likes because a popular sleeper pick spreads like wild-fire. Then go a different direction. It’s bold but if you are struggling to break free and win some money, you need to be bold. Take a chance and be the first one to find your Jeremy Lin.

THE BAD NEWS

The bad news is that there are really only a small number of sleepers out there that will stay relevant for more than a game or two. Unfortunately, most of these guys fall back into nothingness and don’t offer any value past an injury or a specific game. With all of the consistent sleepers increasing in price and popularity, it likely means that there may be fewer and fewer sleepers as seasons go on. Websites are going to see where the sleeper value lies and preemptively increase salaries. It could mean that you’re cheap selections need to come from individual shots in the dark every night. On the forum the argument was that someone who selected Udonis Haslem was able to win a league because Haslem had one good game. Your research needs to shift to finding that player. As the season goes on you will have difficulty seeing the sleeper picks, so you need to find guys that may be the part of a rotation consistently but rarely have a big game. Udonis Haslem theory may have some method to the madness.

I know this seems a bit convoluted, but the future of the sleeper pick in daily fantasy is a bit grave at the moment. There seem to be two ways to go. You can join the movement and jump on a player with everyone else, or you can fight the power, pick your own and hope that other guy doesn’t blow up. Either way you’re living and dying on the performance of a popular sleeper. Which side do you want to be on? The decision is yours, but if there’s one thing I could add as advice; don’t be a flip-flopper. Stick to your guns and either ride a guy or fight the power. If you flip-flop I guarantee you’ll end up picking the wrong end of things every time.

Good luck and win some money.

EWH