MLB Interleague Value Plays: Friday, May 18th, 2012.
You know the MLB season is in full-swing when Interleague Play begins. I’m not going to go into a big spiel about all the minor effects this will have on Fantasy Baseball. I’m sure you guys can all figure that out, if there really is much of a difference. But it’s definitely worth thinking about and Interleague definitely makes things interesting. I’ve always been an advocate of Interleague Play and think there should be no question that it should happen every year. I just don’t see what the big deal is. So on that note, let’s jump right into the picks for tonight!
I’m leaving out the 2:20 game because very few people will be able to read this blog in time for that game. As is often the case with baseball, I can’t guarantee all of these players will start tonight, so be sure to check the Lineups section located above this article near the top of the page and a little to the left of center. Prices and fantasy point figures are from Draftstreet.com as usual.
Pitchers
Luis Mendoza, $4,254: No-brainer of the day! He does only average 1.81 Fantasy Points Per Game this season, but he’s averaged about 5 FPPG over his last 3 starts, averaging 3.33 strikeouts per game in those 3 games. In his last game, against the White Sox, he racked up 6.4 Fantasy Points. This Arizona team is just about the same as Chicago offensively, in the middle of the pack. But in the past week Arizona is the 2nd worst offense in baseball, scoring only 19 runs in their last 6 games.
Joe Saunders, $7,166: It’s not always a bad thing in fantasy baseball to take opposing pitchers. “No decisions” happen often enough and losses can be overcome with long outings and lots of strikeouts. In this case, Saunders was having a great year until he ran into the St. Louis Cardinals, who scored 6 runs on 9 hits against him on May 7th. He followed that up with another horrible outing, scoring an average of -3 FPPG over those 2 outings. But he still averages 4.69 FPPG this season, while he averaged 4.22 FPPG last season. The Royals are the 19th best offense in the league this year, so this should be a good opportunity for Saunders to turn things around. And at about $7,000, he’d be worth the money if he only scores his average number of fantasy points.
Jered Weaver, $16,477: San Diego had a little offensive outburst earlier this week, but they’re still the second worst offense in the league. Weaver’s coming off his one truly bad game of the year, but it was against that high-powered Texas offense, so it’s excusable in this case. He averages 8.02 FPPG this year, but you’ve gotta believe he’ll bounce back with a bit higher fantasy score tonight in one of the best pitchers’ ballparks in the league.
Carlos Zambrano, $14,803: He’s averaged 7.4 FPPG over his last 3 games and 7.11 FPPG this season. Cleveland’s been hitting very well this season and recently, but Zambrano has a strong 1.88 ERA this year, with 39 strikeouts in 48 innings pitched.
Scott Diamond, $9,181: With 2 strong starts so far this year, scoring 10 FPPG, we don’t have much to go on. But those starts were against some pretty good teams, Toronto and the L.A. Angels. He also went 7 innings in both of those starts, with a WHIP of 0.71. His stats from last season were not encouraging at all, but it looks like he really progressed a lot between seasons. It could just be a short-term fluke, but for only about $9,000 it’s definitely worth the risk.
Kenley Jansen, $2,750: If using the 2 reliever strategy or if you just have some extra money to spend on a reliever, Jansen is a good choice tonight, especially because he’s overdue to pitch. He’s had nearly 4 days off now and this game should be a close one. Both starting pitchers have an ERA of about 2 so far this season. St. Louis has lost 5 of their last 7 games, while the Dodgers have won 7 of their last 10.
Casey Janssen, $1,500: On the opposite end of the reliever spectrum, Janssen is a good value if you don’t mind gambling a little bit about whether he’ll actually pitch. But the chances are good that he will, because Toronto’s now won 2 in a row and are considered moderate home favorites against the Mets. Janssen did just pitch last night, but before that he was well-rested, so it’s not out of the question that he’ll pitch again tonight. He’s now had 3 saves in his last 4 games, averaging 3.79 FPPG over those 4 games. This pick had nothing to do with his last name being almost exactly the same as Kenley Jansen, aside from that it helped me stumble across this value.
Hitters
Carlos Gonzalez, $10,931: The aging Millwood is no Jamie Moyer and this is at Coors Field. CarGo’s got his favorable lefty/righty matchup, plus he’s 2 for 2 lifetime against Millwood, both doubles. That’s not much to go on, but he’s had 4 good games out of his last 5, going 7 for 21 in that span. He’s overdue for a home run as well.
Curtis Granderson, $8,493: Another higher priced slugger. Of the 4 players with 13 home runs this year, Granderson is the cheapest. Yet, he arguably has the best matchup. Arroyo got shelled in 3 of his last 4 outings. Granderson is just 1 for 5 lifetime against Arroyo, but this is his favorable lefty/righty matchup.
Kelly Johnson, $7,054: I took him Thursday after a big night Wednesday and he had to let me down of course. I’m not just “chasing” a big night from him here. He has a great matchup against Niese, as he’s gone 4 for 10 against him lifetime. It’s actually a lefty vs. lefty matchup, but Johnson numbers don’t differ that much against lefties and he’s now on pace to hit 8 more home runs than he did last season.
Clint Barmes, $1,963: Last year Barmes actually hit better against righties than he did against lefties. Tonight he faces Verlander for the first time. It’s obviously not the ideal matchup, but the Pirates have been hitting a little better lately and Barmes had a solid 2 at-bats last night. He had a sacrifice fly and a walk, scoring 1.75 FP. At this price, all he needs is a single and 3 fly-outs to make it worth your while. Make sure to check if he plays, as he’s not always in the lineup. But I think it’s likely he will be tonight.
Danny Espinosa, $5,130: Espinosa is 2 for 2 against Arrieta lifetime, but those 2 hits are a triple and a home run! I know stats taken from just 2 at-bats can lie, but Arrieta’s been just terrible in 4 of his last 5 starts. I guess that great performance against the Yankees was truly a fluke. I expect Espinosa and a few other Nationals to show that tonight. The Nationals have really been hitting better lately, with 37 runs in their last 7 games, which is 6th of all MLB teams over that period.
Xavier Nady, $3,188: Going along with that, Nady’s a great choice if he plays tonight. He’s hit 1 home run in each of his last 2 games. Arrieta is pretty high up on the list of home runs allowed this year, with 7 allowed so far.
Bryce Harper, $6,671: Harper still isn’t too expensive for the fantasy point potential he possesses. And he’s hit 2 home runs in his last 4 games now. Those 2 home runs, his only 2 of his short career, have both come against right-handed pitchers.
Hunter Pence, $7,374: Pence has two huge fantasy performances in his last 3 games, scoring 8.25 FP in his last game and 15 FP in his 3rd game back. In his only plate appearance against Bard, he walked in a run. We can’t infer too much from that, but he’s hitting much better against righties this year and hit about the same against both lefties and righties last year. Bard has an ERA of 4.3 this season and has had 2 terrible performances out of his last 4 games, scoring -1 FP combined in those 2 starts.
Carlos Santana, $7,199: Santana’s one of the more reliable catchers in the league. He’s had 3 strong games in a row now. He is facing a pretty good pitcher in Zambrano tonight, but he hits significantly more home runs against righties than lefties, even when adjusted for the amount of at-bats against each.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, $5,417: Aside from going 0 for 1 last night, Saltalamacchia has been hitting very well lately. In the three games previous to last night, he was 7 for 12 with 2 doubles, a home run, and only 2 strikeouts. Cole Hamels has obviously been pitching well lately, but Saltalamacchia has 3 hits in 6 career at-bats against him, with 1 double and 1 home run. At this price, you could probably even use Saltalamacchia as your Utility player tonight.
I’m sure you may have noticed that I mentioned a lot of pitchers today. That’s because it looks to be a night dominated by pitchers for the most part. I wrote more about cheaper pitchers, but there were a few more “aces” out there that should be worth the money tonight. With hitters, I didn’t want to just write about entire teams worth of players, but I feel tonight a lot of the best hitters are all on the same teams. Some teams that should perform a bit better than most tonight are Washington, Colorado, Seattle, Philadelphia, Miami, Cincinnati, and the Chicago Cubs. I know I didn’t mention specific players from all of those teams, but I just can’t get around to talking about all of the useful players in every blog. It should be an exciting and fun first night of Interleague Play! Hope to see you at the top of the GPP Leaderboard tonight!