Re-Evaluating Hot Players When Their Price Goes Up
One of the most challenging transitions in daily fantasy is deciding how much is too much for one of your beloved sleepers(even stars can be sleepers). There are countless examples of that this season, starting with Jeremy Lin and, more recently, with guys such as Lester Hudson. These players are such good bargains when they are putting up 25 or so points on DS at around 8K, but what happens when they shoot up to 10-12K? Do they still hold the same value? Here’s some advice on how to handle the situation.
The Jeremy Lin / D-Leaguers Situation
Jeremy Lin was an anomaly. Plain and simple. This hectic NBA season has definitely led to a number of D-League players getting their chance on the big stage and performing well, but that does not mean you can count on them to be consistent. The fact that Lin was able to continue to dominate after a number of weeks is a true testament to his talent level, but not an indication of all D-League players. Take Lester Hudson for example. Lester came out and had a few monster performances and had every Cavs fan trying to start Lester-sanity. But after a few games his hot streak wore off and he returned to earth. Now he costs 10K on DS and is an extremely risky play on any given night. Meanwhile, Donald Sloan played much more consistently for the Cavs and never jumped too much in cost. The point being, when you need to decide who holds more value, don’t fall for the flash in the pan. Hudson got too pricey too quickly and you need to find better ways to distribute your salary.
The Glen Davis / JJ Hickson Situation
This is the dilemma that has caused me the greatest deal of stress in the past weeks. Glen Davis and JJ Hickson filling in for an injury and absolutely beasting. At first, of course you take a guy at 8K who is in the starting lineup. But when they shot up to 12K I backed off. But after closely watching the two for a few games I started to wonder why they aren’t worth that price tag? They are perfect examples of guys who are NBA proven and are capable of playing good basketball if given enough minutes. As long as they are going to get 30 minutes a game, the 12K price tag is completely acceptable. Don’t be scared off by these high costs for a guy that was averaging 10 fantasy points a game before he became the starter. NBA proven guys are sleepers who continue to hold fantasy value when they stop holding sleeper prices.
The Carmelo Anthony Situation
Oh, Carmelo, you make me so bi-polar. One minute, I am loving the fact that DS has dropped you down to 13K and you are clearly worth much more. The next, you have shot up to 19K and I begin questioning whether or not you belong in the realm of LeBron, K-Love, and Dwight(when all healthy of course.) For this move, I think you need to ride the hot hand of a star no matter what the price. Carmelo continues to hang obscene numbers up and there’s no reason to expect him to stop. Star players are another example of guys who are safe to pay the extra coin for if they go way up the price scale. Every single NBA star will go through a stretch where they are unstoppable and there is no reason to hold off just because they cost you more. I’d rather pay for Carmelo than a fading Dwight Howard pre-injury).
So that’s my break down for assessing rising costs and their role in DFS. It was brief but hopefully to the point. You need to know what kind of player you are dealing with before agreeing to ‘get into bed with them’, so to speak, on your daily roster. Decipher which guys could be a flash in the pan and which guys have staying power. It’s not always the right move to ride an unproven talent up the salary scale. But proven guys should earn your respect and trust in performing every night. Hope it helps, good luck as always.
EWH