Kevin Gausman Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Game Note: Rogers Centre (TOR) will open roof Monday

Tonight’s top two pitchers have come out of the gate on absolute fire to start the 2022 season with both new teams and leagues. Carlos Rodon is the only pitcher to reach the $10K price point on both sites tonight, while Kevin Gausman does so on DraftKings only. Might as well include Chris Bassitt as well, as he is within $200 of $10K on either site. Rodon has done everything he can through three starts to prove that the first half of last season was no fluke. He simply has a 44.6 K% (16.8 SwStr%) and has allowed just a single barrel (3.4%) behind an 84.6 mph EV. Four of his 16 fly balls have been popups. Rodon’s worst estimator is a 2.84 DRA with no other estimator within even half a run. Considering the A’s are basically running out a AAA lineup at this point (72 wRC+ last seven days), Rodon is the clear top overall projected pitcher (PlateIQ), a top five overall projected value on either site tonight, but is also projected to be the most popular arm and in over one-quarter of lineups tonight on either site.

Gausman has a 30.1 K% through three starts that still doesn’t do his 20.7 SwStr% justice and he’s been above 18% in every start. His slider and split finger, which combine for about half his offerings, both have a whiff rate above 45%. Overall, he owns an outrageous 60.3 O-Swing%. To put that into context, league average is currently 31.2%. He has neither walked anyone yet, nor allowed a home run on just two barrels (3.8%). Kind of hard to walk anyone when they’re swinging at more than half the pitches out of the strike zone. For some reason, DRA hates him (3.66), but his next highest estimator is 3.03 xERA, which still may not be doing him justice. Gausman projects well on either site, but not directly below Rodon, though these numbers are fluid and can change before game time. However, if we suspect his ownership is going to be much lower than Rodon, he makes for a great GPP play against a struggling offense (Red Sox 50 wRC+ last seven days).

Bassitt had a rough first inning last time out in which the Giants put a three spot on the board, but that represents half the runs he’s allowed over three starts. He settled down from there and has pitched exactly six innings with at least six strikeouts in all three starts with just four total walks. In addition to the 22.9 K-BB%, Bassitt has a 45.6 GB% and 17.6 IFFB% with just an 83.5 mph EV. His 3.00 ERA is within a quarter run of all his estimators. In his favor is a great park in St Louis against an offense that struggles against RHP (92 wRC+) with a predominantly right-handed lineup. Batters from that side of the plate are below a .270 wOBA and xwOBA against Bassitt since last season. Bassitt doesn’t have the upside of the other two, but generally has a pretty high floor and will pitch deep into games.

Three pitchers exceed $10K on FanDuel with only Kevin Gausman reaching exactly that mark on DraftKings. Yu Darvish is the most expensive FD pitcher ($11.2K), but is $800 less than Gusman on DK and there are some problems here. Darvish was removed from his last game after just three innings (six runs, 17 batters faced, two strikeouts) with a hip impingement, resulting in a short IL trip with the minimum amount of time missed. The outing pushed his ERA up above three (3.09), still below all of his estimators, but only more than a half run below one (3.77 xFIP). Reduced velocity and a career low 33.5 GB% might be cause for concern, but a 24.1 K-BB% and 87.8 mph EV suggests it shouldn’t be too much. The larger issue is the weather forecast in Atlanta that currently suggests rain could be a problem, though that could change. Atlanta is also one of the more positive run environments in baseball, but should the weather hold up, this is a lineup that can be pitched to. The Braves have a 25.1 K% vs RHP with tonight’s projected lineup including four of eight batters above a 27 K% vs RHP this year with only two below 23.8%.

Shohei Ohtani has a $1.5K discrepancy across the two sites. After his blow up against the Yankees, he concluded his first half pitching resume with seven innings of two run ball against the Red Sox, though he only struck out four. With a 30.7 K% (14 SwStr%) and 12.4 BB%, his 3.49 ERA runs within a half run of all of his estimators with only a 3.35 DRA falling below his actual ERA. Even with a positive weather boost that Weather Edge currently gives the park, Oakland is still one of the most negative run environments on the slate and the home team has been very average (101 wRC+, 23.3 K%, 12.2 HR/FB vs RHP). Ohtani certainly has the upside to be the top pitcher on any slate, but occasional control problems could below him as well. He’s likely over-priced on FanDuel at least.

Gausman has allowed more than two runs just once over his last 15 starts, but that came on the road against the Dodgers three starts back when he walked five with just four strikeouts over five innings, yet managed to escape with just three runs allowed. While the 1.73 ERA is still well below estimators (.212 BABIP, 84.7 LOB%, 7.5 HR/FB), Gausman has otherwise flourished with a 23.6 K-BB% and most estimators ranging in the lower threes. However, the contact profile (2.75 xERA) is more optimistic. The park has long been one of the more negative run environments in baseball, but more recently, Statcast Park Factors suggest Dodger Stadium is a more neutral run environment. The Dodgers have a 115 wRC+ and 11.5 K-BB% vs RHP. This is a tough spot, but Gausman may be the most viable of the high priced arms considering all factors and his consistency this year. While we shouldn’t expect a repeat of his previous effort against the Dodgers (Gausman was great in his other start at Dodger Stadium this year), they will be more patient than most teams.

One last pitcher worth mentioning, Trevor Rogers costs within $200 of $9.5K on either site in Washington tonight. Striking out exactly 30% of the batters he’s faced, the worst estimator on the board for Rogers is a 3.54 SIERA, though contact profile including ones like FIP (5.9 HR/FB) and xERA (5.7% Barrels/BBE) will run lower. Half of his 18 starts have been quality starts and he has not allowed more than three runs in a start yet. While he travels to a positive run environment that may get a further weather boost in favor of hitters, the lineup that Rogers is projected to face shouldn’t scare anyone at all with names like Alcides Escobar, Jordy Mercer and Rene Rivera included, though they may be a bit more contact prone than we'd like.

One pitcher, Brandon Woodruff, reaches the $11K mark on both sites, while two more, Robbie Ray and Walker Buehler, hit the $10K price point. Kevin Gausman is above $10K on FanDuel only. Woodruff costs at least $500 more than any other pitcher on either site and at that price, it’s no surprise that he’s a strong candidate for tonight’s top performance. He’s completed seven innings in six of his last eight starts. Woodruff’s 31 K% is tied for the top mark on the board and his 3.03 SIERA is the only estimator above three. The Cubs have a 91 wRC+ and 25.6 K% vs RHP. Paying up for Woodruff may not give you the best value for your daily fantasy dollar, but is unlikely to be much of a mistake. In other words, if there were no price tags, Woodruff should be one of your top two choices.

Robbie Ray is the second most expensive arm on either site and could be a slightly better value in an even better spot against the Mariners (88 wRC+, 27.5 K% vs LHP). His 31 K% (15.4 SwStr%) ties Brandon Woodruff atop the slate tonight. If he could only do something about that contact profile (44 GB%, 91.7 mph EV, 11.1% Barrels/BBE, 22.5 HR/FB, 4.13 xERA), he’d be a Cy Young contender this year. Non-contact including estimators are all below four. Buehler has competed at least six innings in every start this year. He’s done this with a perfectly average contact profile and a 19.6 K-BB%. That’s a good number two on a championship contender, but maybe a step back from what the Dodgers expected Buehler to be at this point. He does have a 2.51 ERA, but that’s exactly a run below his best estimator, a 3.51 xERA, due to a .227 BABIP and 86.7 LOB%. The Giants do have a 25.9 K% vs RHP, but also a 112 wRC+ and 15.8 HR/FB. Buehler probably has more value on FanDuel, not only due to the lower cost, but the quality start potential.

Buehler’s opponent may be the top high priced value on the board. It’s not often we can say that about a pitcher facing the Dodgers (118 wRC+, 22.1 K% vs RHP), but Gausman has been so good that he may be underpriced in this spot. He has allowed more than two runs just once and has an 18.8 SwStr% over his last five starts. His 16.3 SwStr% for the season (30.8 K%) leads the slate and while a 1.96 ERA is well below all of his estimators, the worst of them is a 3.08 SIERA. Gausman runs right behind Woodruff in SIERA, xFIP, DRA and xERA as the top two on the board for each estimator. He does have the tougher matchup, but costs much less. Gausman could be a great leverage play if players are leaning to heavily towards the other high priced arms, due to concern about his matchup.

Despite the 4.54 ERA this year, the long awaited Kevin Gausman breakout may finally be upon us. He’s struck out a career high 31.6 K% (14.7 SwStr%, 26.3 K-BB%). The HRs are still an issue (10.5% Barrels/BBE, six allowed), but the hard contact is not as much of a concern with such amazing peripherals. His 4.37 xERA is his only estimator above four. In fact, all of his others are below three and a half. The Rockies have a 76 wRC+ and 12.2 HR/FB vs RHP with a 22.3 K%. They have a team 28.2 K% over the last week and were just shut out at home last night. Get through the top half of the lineup and Gausman should have success below that. Normally, it’s a bad idea to advocate for a pitcher at Coors, but Gausman is cheap ($7.1K) and has recorded sixth inning outs in four of his last five outings in tough spots, including one at Coors already. The lack of high end pitchers in strong spots tonight could make daily fantasy players consider paying down in this spot. It may be Coors, but the Rockies were shut out at home by marginal pitching last night.

It’s hard to find good pitching on this slate and we might have to give some guys a look that we’d normally ignore. Kevin Gausman has been pretty bad this year with a 5.97 ERA, 4.47 xFIP and 4.37 SIERA with a 16.4% K-BB. However, he does have a few things going for him. In 2 starts since returning from the IL, Gausman has posted an impressive 28.3% K-BB and 13.1% SwStr along with a solid 3.86 xFIP and 3.53 SIERA. He gets a matchup today with the Reds, whose lineup isn’t all that intimidating as they have just 3 batters with an xwOBA above .320 vs. RHP this year in the lineup. Overall, the Reds have just an 87 wRC+ and 23.9% K rate vs. RHP on the year. Gausman will also have the advantage of one of the league’s best pitch framers in Tyler Flowers behind the plate. The Reds currently have a 3.98 implied total tonight vs. Gausman. Gausman is especially intriguing on Fanduel, where his salary is just $6.3k compared to an $8.3k price on Draftkings. On such a tough slate for pitching, Gausman has a good shot at being one of the better PTS/$ pitchers on the board tonight.