Dakota Hudson Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Ironically, with similarly expected conditions to Yankee Stadium tonight (temperatures in the mid-60s and negligible wind effects), Weather Edge is showing a run and power decline in such games, which makes quite a bit more sense. Overall, this park has been a positive run environment, though not as much of a power haven as Yankee Stadium.

Dakota Hudson is the low man on the pitching pole today. His 18 K% is more than 10 points below any other pitcher today with a 5.08 SIERA that’s the only mark above four and a .335 xwOBA that’s more than 30 points higher than anyone else. What he does do is keep the ball on the ground for the most part (56.9%) with that mark jumping to 63.9% against RHBs, who had a .285 wOBA and .302 xwOBA against him this year. It makes one wonder if either Asdrubal Cabrera (99 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP) or Matt Adams (89 wRC+, .138 ISO) could see the field over Howie Kendrick (136 wRC+, .221 ISO) or Ryan Zimmerman (65 wRC+, .148 ISO) tonight, as LHBs had a .347 wOBA (.369 xwOBA) with a 49.6 GB% against Hudson, but why fix what’s not broken? Juan Soto (155 wRC+, .303 ISO) may be the top overall bat on the slate. Adam Eaton (108 wRC+, .152 ISO) may be your top value. The Nationals top the board with 4.23 implied runs.

On the brink of elimination, a lineup shuffle for the Cardinals in game three had no effect, and there’s probably not much more they could do in game four either. With a 3-0 series lead, Patrick Corbin likely has the longest leash tonight and costs less than $10K on either site. His 28.5 K%, 3.88 SIERA, 3.09 DRA and .303 xwOBA hardly stand out on a four man board that includes Gerrit Cole or even his own rotation, though he was likely one of the top 10 pitchers in the National League. Corbin did have that awful relief outing against the Dodgers, but still struck out 14 of the 41 he faced in the series. Corbin does have the highest aEV (88.9 mph) and Barrels/BBE (9.4%) on the board, so it’s the strikeout rate that really gives him value and it does make some middle of the order St Louis bats interesting here. Paul Goldschmidt (148 wRC+), Marcell Ozuna (92 wRC+), Jose Martinez (160 wRC+) and Tommy Edman (151 wRC+) all exceeded a .260 ISO vs LHP this year, while Yadier Molina (130 wRC+, .147 ISO) had a .382 xwOBA with the platoon advantage, but has the disadvantage of having the speed of a 37 year-old catcher.

The game in St Louis features the two highest ground ball rates in baseball this year (more than 100 IP), but also the only two strikeout rates on the board lower than 23% in Dallas Keuchel (18.7 K%, 60.1 GB%) and Dakota Hudson (18 K%, 56.9 GB%). They are also the only pitchers on the board above a .300 wOBA (both are above .330) and above 35.5% 95+ mph EV (both are above 38%). While these are clearly the bottom two pitchers on the board from a daily fantasy standpoint and further burdened by the prospect of elimination (in Hudson’s case) or working on just three days rest (in Keuchel’s case), none the less, either must be considered in a secondary role on DraftKings, where they’re the two lowest priced pitchers on the board. One reason is the favorable environment in St Louis, a clear pitcher’s park in the cooler months of the season. Another is the fact that it’s hard to call any pitcher really safe today. Even Max Scherzer fails to fit that description in an elimination game against the Dodgers.

All that said, this is certainly not a spot to avoid batters either. RHBs were right around a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Keuchel this season, still with a 59.3 GB%, but much lower than LHBs (.277 wOBA, 70 GB%). The frightening thing here though, is that this St Louis lineup features just three batters above a .150 ISO vs LHP this year and also just three above a 97 wRC+. Tommy Edman (151 wRC+, .262 ISO) is just one of two above both and he’s batting seventh. The other, and clearly the most coveted batter in this lineup, is Paul Goldschmidt (148 wRC+, .298 ISO).

For the road team, Hudson’s splits have been even worse. LHBs are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA this year with a ground ball rate (50.2%) nearly 15 points lower. This makes Freddie Freeman (154 wRC+, .280 ISO vs RHP) the clear top bat here, but also adds value to cheaper bats in Nick Markakis (112 wRC+, .147 ISO), Matt Joyce (131 wRC+, .163 ISO) and Brian McCann (97 wRC+, .178 ISO), who has very similar numbers to Ozzie Albies against RHP (98 wRC+, .177 ISO) this year.

Dakota Hudson has allowed HRs in streaks this year, but has also changed as the season’s gone on. He had been a contact prone ground ball machine, but more recently, he’s increased strikeouts with reduced ground balls. However, not much has changed in terms of results or even expected results (.386 xwOBA last 30 days). Since the start of July (eight starts), he has a 19.2 K%, but just a 47.2 GB%. Nine of his 19 HRs have come at home, split evenly between RH and LH batters, but LHBs do have a .389 wOBA against him that’s nearly 100 points higher than RHBs. This is well confirmed by Statcast (.390 xwOBA). Fifteen of his 69 runs have been unearned. The Brewers (split high 17.5 HR/FB vs RHP) are one of the hottest offenses on the board (156 wRC+, 29.2 HR/FB last seven days). Despite the normally power suppressing environment in St Louis, the heat diminishes that somewhat, giving Milwaukee left-handed power a bit of an edge tonight and considering their moderate 4.61 implied run line, Brewers could run a bit under the radar tonight if players still believe Hudson to be a ground ball prominent pitcher. Christian Yelich (218 wRC+, .433 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Trent Grisham (91 wRC+, .211 ISO), Mike Moustakas (113 wRC+, .260 ISO) and Yasmani Grandal (114 wRC+, .199 ISO) make up a dangerous stack tonight. Grisham’s $3.5K price tag on DraftKings paving a way towards the higher priced bats. Although the Brewers haven’t faced Hudson since April and not at all in St Louis yet, they have hit five of the 19 HRs he’s allowed this year.

Dakota Hudson has been increasing his strikeouts (21.4 K%, 12.5 SwStr% last four starts). Combining anything near a league average strikeout rate with his 60.1 GB% would make him an interesting pitcher. However, after allowing just a single HR over a 10 start stretch, he’s also allowed five of them over this four start stretch and sustains a double digit walk rate on the year (10.3%). Due to the power surge, his xwOBA has actually increased over the last month (.351). The ground balls keep the overall barrels reasonable (7.3% per BBE) despite contact that leans a bit too much on the hard side (89.4 mph aEV, 41.9% 95+ mph EV). He also has a substantial platoon split which favors Jesse Winker (117 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Joey Votto (94 wRC+, .139 ISO) at the top of the order, along with Scooter Gennett (103 wRC+, .176 ISO) in the middle. LHBs own a .379 wOBA with an xwOBA 10 points higher and a 49.4 GB% that’s 20 points lower than RHBs against Hudson. While this trio of lefties hasn’t performed up to expected standards this season, price tags at $4K or below on DraftKings and $3.1K or below on FanDuel serve to compensate in a power friendly park that could provide an additional weather boost tonight. The Reds (4.91) are one of just six teams implied for 4.9 runs or higher tonight.