Joey Lucchesi Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

There are several marginal, but no single great pitching option on a five game, Wednesday night slate, featuring weather concerns in Baltimore and Boston where Eduardo Rodriguez and James Paxton are pitching. The games in Seattle and Arizona features no weather concerns, but some interesting pitchers. Zac Gallen makes his first start for the Diamondbacks, having struck out 17 of his last 52 batters, allowing just two runs over his last 14 innings. His 28.5 K% and .291 xwOBA have come against a decent quality of opposition. His estimators run around a full run or higher above his 2.27 ERA due to an 11.9 BB%, .259 BABIP, 80.9 LOB% and 8.3 HR/FB. While Arizona isn’t very power friendly, it’s still likely a park downgrade for Gallen coming from Miami and we can except to see him regress a bit. He faces a nearly league average Philadelphia offense with a 22.7 K% and 13.5 HR/FB vs RHP at a cost within $600 of $9K on either site. An argument can be made that Joey Lucchesi is the more interesting arm despite merely a league average strikeout rate (22.8%) and the completion of six innings in just two of his last seven starts. While nothing further stands out in his 4.23 ERA, 4.42 SIERA, 3.83 DRA or .308 xwOBA, Lucchesi is facing an offense with a team 52 wRC+, 32 K% and 5.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week. A look at tonight’s lineup in PlateIQ reveals a combined average 29.4 K% vs LHP this year, including seven of the nine batters with more than 60 PAs against southpaws this year. Each of the first five batters have struck out at least 24% of the time against LHP this year. Lucchesi may not give you the workload you want, but costs just $7.3K on FanDuel and is $600 less than Gallen on DraftKings.

Patrick Corbin failed to make it out of the third inning in Cincinnati last time out. The strikeout rate (26.9%) is down nearly four points from last season and the quality of the contact he’s allowed has not been ideal (89.7 mph aEV, 9.9% Barrels/BBE, 41.1% 95+ mph EV). Still, none of his metrics suggest he’s been a poor pitcher (3.46 ERA, 3.80 SIERA, 2.59 DRA, .312 xwOBA) and he’s probably even the top overall pitcher on the board with a park boost in San Diego against an offense with a 27.3 K% vs LHP. However, don’t be afraid to sneak in a few San Diego batters on a five game slate here. The Padres also have a 22 HR/FB vs LHP.

The real conversation about pitching in this game should be around the less obvious arm though. Joey Lucchesi has a 28.4 K% with a 13.4 SwStr% over the last month, walking just three of his last 92 batters. Just as importantly, Lucchesi has also recorded seventh inning outs in three straight starts after having done so just once previously this season. In addition to the strikeouts and 49.7 GB%, Lucchesi is also a quality contact manager (86.1 mph aEV), so while all of his contact independent estimators agree with a 3.96 ERA (3.84 SIERA, 3.89 DRA), his 3.56 FIP and .283 xwOBA are a bit more optimistic. It gets even better over the last 30 days: 2.49 ERA, 3.28 SIERA, .263 xwOBA. The Nationals are tough on LHP (122 wRC+), but neither their 13.4 K-BB%, nor 16.5 Hard-Soft% are all that concerning. Lucchesi costs just $8.2K on FanDuel ($9K on DK) and is probably the top option for players who don’t want to pay much more than that.

Joey Lucchesi tied a season high with seven innings last time out, but still only faced 25 batters and hasn’t otherwise completed six or gone beyond 24 batters. His strikeout rate is down to league average and even slightly below that over the last month. Aside from a 3.33 FIP, all of his estimators sit between 3.6 and 4.3 for the season and over the last month. Most don’t take into account great contact management. An 85.6 mph aEV drops is xwOBA to .293 just 13 points below his actual mark. He downgrades to a more neutral run environment in Toronto tonight, but the Blue Jays have struggled against LHP (71 wRC+, 17.7 K-BB%, 8.3 HR/FB) and even more at home (64 wRC+, 17.8 K-BB%, 11.4 HR/FB). Luccehis is just under $9K on DraftKings, but nearly $2K less on FanDuel.

Joey Lucchesi has just a league average 22.2% strikeout rate and has gone beyond 90 pitches just twice this season, but all of his estimators are below his 4.57 ERA while his 49.6 GB% and 84.4 mph aEV have led to a .290 xwOBA as well. The kicker here is that he costs just $6.2K on FanDuel in a superior matchup. San Diego is already a pitcher friendly park, but conditions and umpiring may additionally be favoring pitchers tonight (premium subscription required). On top of all these positive factors the Pirates have just a 65 wRC+, 22.2 K-BB% and 10 HR/FB vs LHP this year. While Lucchesi won’t go extremely deep into this game, some efficiency against a bad offense might get him through six at a great price.