Mike Clevinger Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Very few of the most expensive pitchers project as top of the board values on Monday night. That certainly doesn’t mean that every top of the board value is rosterable on single pitcher sites. For instance, the Tigers are so bad against RHP (68 wRC+, 24.1 K%, 7.1 HR/FB) that Aaron Sanchez projects as the fourth best FanDuel value ($6K), but nobody in their right mind is using him (though sometimes it takes an “unright” mind to win a GPP). The top projected value on either site is within $200 of $8.5K on either site. Mike Clevinger’s 24 K% (16.2 K-BB%) may not be up to pre-injury standards, but he finally seems to be hitting a grove, completing six innings in four of his last five starts and suppressing hard contact (86.7 mph EV, 6.0% Barrels/BBE, 34.9% 95+ mph EV) with a 3.38 ERA that’s below, but within half a run of all estimators. In a favorable park with moderately hitter friendly weather, but not enough to pull it out of negative run environment status, Clevinger has a strong run prevention matchup against the Rockies (86 wRC+, 21.5 K% vs RHP). He is the type of pitcher players can use on a single pitcher site.

The pitchers projecting for the second and third most value on either site are a bit more volatile, though cheaper. Domingo German was lit up in Houston in his first start, but did strikeout out seven of 21 Mets in his second, though still was unable to complete five innings. That’s a tough one-two punch to measure German against, but his early numbers look like what they usually have with the ability to miss some bats (23.1 K%, 11.4 SwStr%) with some contact profile issues (11.5% Barrels/BBE). He gets a park downgrade with some hitter friendly weather in the Bronx tonight in what’s not a favorable matchup either (Mariners 104 wRC+, 22.5 K% vs RHP). However, German Is cheap ($6.5K or less), while the Mariners are struggling (77 wRC+ last seven days) and without Julio Rodriguez.

Although Michael Kopech threw 5.1 shutout innings at Coors last time, it’s been five starts since he’s completed six innings, with his strikeout rate dropping to a league average 21.4%. That wouldn’t be terrible if he didn’t have a 12.3 BB%, 34.3 GB% and 90 mph EV too. A .226 BABIP and 78.9 LOB% have been responsible for a 3.16 ERA more than half a run below estimators with only his xERA (3.81) below four. More significantly hitter friendly weather in Chicago against a Kansas City offense with a 91 wRC+ and 21.9 K% vs RHP makes him a high risk play. The Royals recently got Sal Perez back, though Bobby Witt Jr. left yesterday’s game with an injury and Andrew Benintendi is gone.

If you’re looking for a dirt cheap SP2 DK punt, Antonio Senzatela’s 18.1 K% over his last seven starts is more than double what it was before that and he gets a massive park upgrade in San Diego (Padres 97 wRC+, 22 K% vs RHP). Spenser Watkins has a 1.92 ERA, 2.62 FIP and 4.12 xFIP in five starts back from the IL. Believe it or not, all of those numbers are significant improvements on his season numbers (4.03 ERA, 4.45 FIP, 5.05 xFIP). An 18.6 K% and 14.2 K-BB% over this five starts span are also stark improvements to 13.8% and 5.9% season rates and that’s basically been the difference. Watkins also throws about 65% cutters and four-seamers, two of the pitchers the Texas offense (94 wRC+, 23.5 K% vs RHP) performs worst against. Both he and Senzatela are less than $6K on DraftKings.

Mike Clevinger is your clear cut top pitcher on the Thursday evening slate. He has the top strikeout rate on the board by more than five full points (35.3%), the top SIERA (3.23) by more than half a run, and the top xwOBA (.260) by more than 20 points. Jack Flaherty is second in all of those categories and has been on fire himself (34.9 K%, 1.32 ERA, 2.10 FIP, .239 xwOBA last 30 days), but has a much tougher matchup at Wrigley. Other mid-range pitching options include the inconsistent Kyle Gibson against the Royals and Kyle Hendricks with much lower upside against the Cardinals. Meanwhile, Clevinger has recorded seventh inning outs in four straight starts and eight of his last 11, while allowing more than two runs just twice since the start of June. He’s also facing the Tigers, a team with a 75 wRC+ and 19.9 K-BB% vs RHP. They do not have a single batter in tonight’s lineup above a .326 wOBA or .177 ISO vs RHP this year. Clevinger has faced Detroit twice this year and it’s gone just about as expected: 14 IP – 1 ER – 1 BB – 22 K – 51 BF.

Since July 1st, Mike Clevinger has been nothing short of a top-tier ace as he has posted a 2.17 ERA, 2.55 xFIP, a 34.7% K rate, 6.6% BB rate and 14.7% SwStr. Per Statcast, he has also allowed just a .272 xwOBA and 87.1 MPH aEV. Tonight Clevinger gets a matchup with the Royals, who have a fifth-worst 84 wRC+ with a 21.9% K rate vs. RHP on the year. The Royals have also been ice cold with a pitiful 66 wRC+ over the past month. 5 of 9 hitters in the Royals’ projected lineup have an xwOBA below .240 over the past month. Clevinger should also have the benefit of plus pitch-framer Roberto Perez behind the plate. Clevinger is $11k+ on both major sites, but should be well worth the price as he looks like the primary arm to spend up on in both cash and GPPs. The Royals currently have just a 2.79 implied total for tonight.

Mike Clevinger’s string of favorable matchups continue as he’s faced the White Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers, Orioles , Royals, Twins and Tigers in his seven starts. We can’t say he hasn’t dominated these mostly poor offenses however, striking out 41.4% of batters with a 17.3 SwStr%, and 72.6 Z-Contact%. All of these marks top a board that includes Gerrit Cole tonight. His 31.1 Z-O-Swing% is second behind Sonny Gray (30.8%). While Clevinger’s 3.57 ERA is well above his estimators due to a .318 BABIP and 70.1 LOB%, it’s still a small sample (seven starts) and 12 of his 14 runs allowed came in his first two starts back from injury last month. His .270 xwOBA is third best on the board, only two points behind Cole and Daniel Ponce de Leon for the slate lead. The Blue Jays have an 86 wRC+ and 15.9 K% vs RHP. While Toronto is a slightly positive run environment, it’s still a park upgrade for Clevinger, who’s price tag is now above $12K on DraftKings, but still $1.5K less than Cole on FanDuel, where he may be the better value.