Ranger Suarez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The last large night slate of the MLB season is a difficult one to navigate, due mostly to incomplete information, so let’s give you all the information we currently have. We still don’t even know who’s pitching for the Cubs and Padres, while we have to guess at pitcher workloads for much of the slate in meaningless games. For example, the only pitcher to reach $10K on both sites tonight is Clayton Kershaw. He’s certainly still pitching for something, though it’s a long shot for the Dodgers to win the division at this point, but he hasn’t reached 75 pitches in any of three starts since returning from the IL, but has been just beneath that mark in each of his last two. He’s struck out 16 of 56 since his return with a 52.8 GB% and two walks, so the quality of the performance has been the same, but it’s the length we certainly can’t trust at this cost tonight. For the sake of completion, the Brewers have a 90 wRC+ vs LHP with three in the projected lineup exceeding a 30 K% vs LHP, but this is a meaningless game for them, unless they really want to keep the Dodgers in that Wild Card game.

Framber Valdez, Lance Lynn and Sandy Alcantara each cost at least $10K on one site tonight. Nonen of them are pitching for anything, while two of them are tuning up for post-season starts next week. That may mean that Alcantara has the loosest strings with the Marlins not needing to hold anything back? He has 10 quality starts in his last 12 attempts and has recorded seventh inning outs in exactly half of his 32 starts with a 24 K% (18 K-BB%), 53.4 GB% and just 5.7% Barrels/BBE. Estimators are tightly packed between a 3.30 DRA and 3.67 SIERA. Maybe the Phillies (92 wRC+ vs RHP) are flat, having just been eliminated in a pitcher friendly park, but only three batters in the projected lineup exceed a 20.1 K% vs RHP this year.

Framber Valdez has completed six innings in eight of his last nine starts, but has just a 3.6 K-BB% (14.5 BB%) over his last three. If there’s any goal for him today, perhaps it’s finishing the season with a ground ball rate above 70% (70.1% currently)? But when a good portion of the value is built into the workload and that’s somewhat of a coin flip here….and it’s not even a good matchup, though five in the projected Oakland lineup have at least a 23 K% vs LHP this year. Lynn has been blistered in two of his last four starts, pushing his ERA up to 2.72, still more than a half run above all estimators except for a 2.63 ERA that accounts for the 5.9% Barrels/BBE that he’s allowed. A 20.5 K-BB% is in line with his work in Texas the last couple of years, though he hasn’t been the typical workhorse this year, averaging just under six innings per start and the White Sox have no reason to push him even that far tonight, which doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t. The matchup here is fine. Detroit has a 91 wRC+ vs RHP and five batters in the projected lineup have at least a 25 K% vs RHP this year.

Sean Manaea and Shane McClanahan are the only other pitchers to reach $9K on both sites, though Ranger Suarez is short by just $200. All three are quality left-handed pitchers, pitching in meaningless games, though not necessarily for their opposition. The Rays have the most incentive NOT to over-work McClanahan for obvious reasons and the Yankees (the only team still playing for something here) have a 111 wRC+ vs LHP. Strikeouts have been dipping for McClanahan, who has four or less in three of his last five starts, but still exactly a 20 K-BB% on the year. The larger concern with a drop in his strikeout rate is a troubling contact profile that includes a 91.6 mph EV and 10.7% Barrels/BBE. In fact, he’s allowed 20 barrels (14.6%), but just five home runs since the start of August (49.1 IP), which seems a bit fortunate. A 4.63 xERA is exactly a run above his SIERA and DRA, his next highest estimators. He’s recorded a sixth inning out in just one of his last six starts.

Suarez has allowed as many as three runs just once in his 11 starts. Is he as good as his 1.69 ERA? No, but the fact that he’s been really good and even still improving can’t be argued. Suarez has a 21.8 K-BB% with a 52.6 GB% over his last 44 innings. This comes with a 1.96 FIP, but he’s allowed just three barrels over this span. His worst season estimator is a 3.54 SIERA. It’s a great matchup (Marlins 80 wRC+ vs LHP with three in the projected lineup striking out more than one-third of the time against them) in a great park. If the Phillies are going to just let him do his thing, he may even be the top pitcher and top value on the board tonight. Manaea has thrown seven innings of two run ball or better with at least eight strikeouts in three of his last five starts, but has allowed nine runs in 10 innings with just six strikeouts in the other two. On the season, he owns a 20.3 K-BB% with a 3.94 ERA that’s above all estimators except for a 4.11 ERA that takes his 90.4 mph EV into account. The projected lineup for Houston has three batters above a 15 K% vs LHP. There’s every reason in the world to fade high priced pitching tonight, but if you’re going to pay up, perhaps the matchup in Miami is your best bet.

Twenty-two year old Ranger Suarez is not a major prospect for the Phillies. His Fangraphs player page features a mere 40 FV grade without a currently above average offering. He has a 12.5 K-BB% in three AAA starts after an 11.4 K-BB% in 12 AA starts this season. His debut will come in a difficult park in Cincinnati, but the Phillies probably noticed how easily pitchers making their first major league start have nearly no-hit the Reds this week. The lefty will will have to watch out for Eugenio Suarez (180 wRC+, .284 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), while Adam Duvall (108 wRC+, .239 ISO) and Scooter Gennett (109 wRC+, .182 ISO) have some pop as well. Joey Votto (121 wRC+, .125 ISO, .390 xwOBA) just gets on base. Once again Vegas is siding with the Reds against a rookie arm (4.97 implied runs) and one of these days, they'll eventually be right.