Starling Marte Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

While the Marlins have one of the worst offenses on the board vs RHP (91 wRC+), their 4.5 implied run line is actually tied for third highest on the board tonight and the reason for that is named Chi Chi Gonzalez. Not only does Gonzalez have just a 12.3 K%, but batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA & xwOBA against him since last year. In fact, RHBs actually have an xwOBA nearing .400 (.394), which somewhat favors a predominantly RH lineup for the Marlins and some of those RHBs haven’t been terrible against RHP since 2020 either. Particularly, Starling Marte (129 wRC+, .185 ISO), Jesus Aguilar (119 wRC+, .194 ISO) and Adam Duvall (103 wRC+, .244 ISO) are batters players might be interested in. Unfortunately, Miami bats aren’t as cheap as you’d expect, especially on DraftKings, but that could help even more from an ownership standpoint, especially for players fading Scherzer tonight due to weather concerns.

With tonight’s slate mostly comprised of top end of the rotation arms, it’s likely that some GPPs are going to be won with some unconventional stacks. One idea might include the Marlins. Sure they’re only implied for three and a half runs and are facing Max Fried, but there are a few factors in Miami’s favor. Fried usually generates lots of ground balls with a marginal strikeout rate, but he’s been below 40% in each of his first two starts. The Marlins can load up on a predominantly RH lineup and Fried has been only average against RHBs (.323 wOBA, .298 xwOBA). In fact, the current Miami roster has a .399 xwOBA against him over 71 PAs via Baseball Savant. Next, Atlanta is one of the more positive (if not the most positive) run environments on the slate. Lastly, Marlins are very cheap tonight. They’re all below $3K on FanDuel and only Starling Marte is above $3.6K on DraftKings. Miami bats pave the way toward high priced pitching.

Ryan Castellani was smoked for five runs (two HRs) by the Astros last time out, striking out just one of the 24 batters he faced. It wasn’t hard to see coming actually. Castellani has never exceeded a 22 K% or 14 K-BB% in his professional career, but did exceed a 90 mph aEV in each of his first two outings, a feat he accomplished a third time against the Astros. The 93.1 mph aEV is worst on the board, generating a slate worst 5.52 xERA as well. While the Diamondbacks have shown little power against LHP (9.7 HR/FB), they’ve been very contact prone (20.6 K%). RHBs have a .356 wOBA against Castellani. It’s a small sample and you might want to blame Coors, but that would be wrong, as Statcast pushes RHBs up to a .403 xwOBA against him. Let’s look at Starling Marte here. Even if Castellani’s numbers are nowhere near stable yet, Marte has hit same handed pitching well (.369 wOBA, .196 ISO since 2019) and should be in the middle of any Arizona rallies, generally in the third spot in the lineup. He costs $3.2K on FanDuel and has a 133 wRC+ overall this year.