Tyler O'Neill Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

There are not a lot of viable pitching options outside the most expensive arms tonight, which means that affordable bats are going to be necessary and Cardinal bats offer some upside with the ability to relieve some salary concerns with a couple of exceptions (Arenado & Goldschmidt). There are 10 teams (one-third of the board) above five implied runs tonight. The Cardinals are not one of them, but they’re right underneath with a 4.96 run team total tonight. Pittsburgh starter Dillon Peters has faced just 42 batters this year, 32 of them right-handed, which is the side all eight Cardinals in the projected lineup would hit from. That’s not a large sample and Statcast pushes RHBs up from a .263 wOBA to a .357 xwOBA here, which does make some sense because Peters has faced 471 RHBs in his career with a .372 wOBA. Tyler O’Neill (162 wRC+, .305 ISO vs LHP this season) costs just $3.2K on FanDuel ($1K more on DK) with Dylan Carlson (132 wRC+, .130 ISO) and Tommy Edman (118 wRC+, .228 ISO) additional affordable projected in the top half of the lineup.

If you’re looking for more of a one off punt, consider some very small sample successes against LHP, like Lane Thomas (234 wRC+, .185 ISO) against Rich Hill (RHBs .334 wOBA, .328 xwOBA) for just $2.2K on either site or Frank Schwindel (213 wRC+, .471 ISO) against Dallas Keuchel (.332 wOBA, .378 xwOBA) at $3.2K on DK. On the other side of that matchup, Brian Goodwin (147 wRC+, .236 ISO) is also fairly cheap against Keegan Thompson (LHBs .334 wOBA, .369 ISO).

The Toronto Blue Jays are certainly the team that benefits long term from acquiring Jose Berrios, but in the short term that forces Griffin Jax into a spot start and the immediate benefit is towards a predominantly right-handed St Louis lineup and daily fantasy players in salary cap bind. That’s because RHBs have a .437 wOBA (.394 xwOBA) against Jax in his small sample of work this year and because the Cardinals have a couple of cheap RHBs who have hammered same-handed pitching this year. Is it a break out or just a hot streak for Harrison Bader (136 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP), who costs just $2.5K on DK tonight? Regardless, he leads the entire projected lineup with a 187 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Tyler O’Neill has a bit larger sample with a 132 wRC+ and .252 ISO vs RHP this season. We don’t yet have an updated team total for the Cardinals tonight, but we can guess it will be a significant jump from when Berrios was expected to start tonight.

A recent New York Times article highlighted Tyler Mahle as being one of the most affected pitchers in the league since the new sticky substance enforcement policy went into effect. The good news is that he’s still missing a lot of bats (29.8 K%, 14.6 SwStr%), but over his last five starts, Mahle has allowed six home runs (of his 14 on the year) and 17 runs (16 earned) over 26.1 IP with a one mph increase in his average exit velocity. His 5.47 ERA nearly matches a 5.45 FIP over this span. The good news is that the upside remains, but it now comes with more risk in a dangerous park. An incredibly shocking number for a guy with an ERA and estimators still below four for the season is that same-handed batters have a .358 wOBA against him this season and while Statcast is a bit more forgiving (.329 xwOBA) that still leaves Mahle in a dangerous spot in a tough park against a predominantly right-handed lineup tonight. While the St Louis offense hasn’t been particularly potent this season, especially against RHP (86 wRC+, 11.5 HR/FB)), they get a pretty significant park upgrade tonight and one guy who has certainly been carrying his share of the load is Tyler O’Neill (139 wRC+, .260 ISO vs RHP), who costs less than $4K on either site. Paul Goldschmidt (126 wRC+, .213 ISO) and Nolan Arenado (126 wRC+, .213 ISO) are the only other two batters in the projected lineup with a wRC+ above 100 and ISO above .200 vs RHP this year. Oddsmakers are failing to see the flaw in Mahle’s game, as they have the Cardinals implied for just 4.21 runs tonight.

There are a lot of unknowns on today’s main slate, which includes nine games, but we can probably be confident that bullpens will be more heavily involved than usual. Only half of tonight’s 18 starters are averaging at least five innings per start. And among the nine averaging more than five innings per start, Matt Manning has made just two starts and Danny Duffy has faced just 12 batters over two outings since returning from the IL. So really, there are only seven starters we can expect to even qualify for a win tonight, not taking into account the quality of their actual performance. That leaves several bullpens players should feel comfortable attacking tonight and it starts with an Arizona pen with a 5.45 ERA, 5.06 FIP and 5.18 xFIP over the last 30 days with Jake Faria getting the start. His last major league start came in 2018 for the Rays. He’s struck out five of 17 batters faced in relief, but with just a 5.3 SwStr%. He was starting at AAA and had a 28 K% over 36.2 innings with a 28.4 GB% and seven home runs. And there’s also the opposite end of that in Wade LeBlanc starting for the Cardinals. He started a game for Baltimore in April, facing 12 batters and has pitched for four different organizations this year, starting in minors and relieving in the majors. He’s struck out 10 of 61 batters (8.8 SwStr%) with two walks. His career high strikeout rate was 20.2% back in 2016. The St Louis bullpen has a 4.84 FIP and 4.77 xFIP over the last month. Hitters in St Louis also get a significant weather boost according to Weather Edge (although that could change, so be sure to check throughout the day). Tyler O’Neill has a 119 wRC+ and .269 ISO vs RHP since 2020 with a 141 wRC+ over the last 30 days that tops the projected lineup for the Cardinals.

The Kansas City bullpen owns a 4.74 ERA, 5.13 FIP and 4.76 xFIP over the last 30 days and Xander Bogaerts (173 wRC+, .215 ISO vs LHP since 2020) shouldn’t suffer much if he only faces Duffy once or twice. He, too, has a 141 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Also, behind Manning, the Detroit bullpen has a 4.70 ERA and 4.51 xFIP, but may not even be that good. Michael Fulmer hit the IL, while Gregory Soto and Jose Cisnero were both heavily used at the top end this weekend. Cleveland is another park that could see a significant weather boost and Jose Ramirez (129 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP since 2020) shouldn’t be bothered by whoever relieves Manning.

The St Louis offense has been far from what anyone would call productive this year. Their futility includes a 9.3 HR/FB at home, 85 wRC+ vs RHP and 64 wRC+ with a 5.6 HR/FB over the last seven days. That doesn’t mean that all of the hitters in it haven’t been productive and in the right situation, some of the value in this lineup could go over-looked. A 4.83 implied run line places them just 10th on tonight’s board, but opposing pitcher Wil Crowe has surrendered a .360+ wOBA and xwOBA to batters from either side of the plate since last season. This potentially makes Dylan Carlson (94 wRC+, .151 ISO vs RHP since 2020) and Tyler O’Neill (124 wRC+, .279 ISO) two of the top bats on the board. Both cost less than $3.5K on DraftKings with Carlson only $2.5K on FanDuel. The chief concern here is actually a forecast Kevin currently grades as Orange with the potential for Red. Should the game play though, a 12 mph wind blowing out to left would make it a more favorable hitting environment than normal too.