MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 29th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
| Cincinnati | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
| Mike Leake | Vegas Moneyline | Edinson Volquez | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | PIT (-143) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.293 | 0.812 | 0.356 | 13.90% | SP vs. Left | 0.235 | 0.738 | 0.324 | 17.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.638 | 0.282 | 22.40% | SP vs. Right | 0.252 | 0.693 | 0.309 | 15.00% |
| Batter Splits | CIN BvP  | CIN vs R | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Mike Leake – Leake is having a career season. He is boasting a 3.51 ERA with a K/9 of 7.0. He has cut down on both his walks and his HR’s allowed this season and he’s producing a career high 54% ground ball rate. He finds himself in a tough matchup tonight though as the Buccos are ranked 3rd in wOBA vs. RH pitching and 5th in wOBA at home. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $8100 FD, $14150 DD, $8500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $14150 FTD
- Edinson Volquez – Volquez has pitched well this season, but his xFIP (4.30) is nearly a full run higher than his ERA (3.56). Volquez is a picher with limited upside. He is averaging only 6 K’s per 9 innings while walking over 3 batters per 9. The good news is that he is facing a Reds offense that is ranked 25th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. I like his chances to pick up a win, but with a full slate, there are better options. Rating = 6
Salaries: $7200 FD, $14150 DD, $6500 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $14150 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
Billy Hamilton – Hamilton draws a nice matchup against Volquez who has given up a .324 wOBA to hitters from the left side of the plate this season. Hamilton sees a nice bump in stolen base potential with a righty on the mound. He’s already stolen 51 this season and will look to be aggressive on the bases tonight.
Additional Plays: Todd Frazier
Pittsburgh
Neil Walker – Walker is a nice option at 2B tonight. He has a nice track record against Leake (11/35 with 5 XBH’s) who has given up a .356 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate this season. He should see plenty of RBI opportunities batting clean-up.
Additional Plays: Josh Harrison, Pedro Alvarez
Minnesota at Baltimore
| Minnesota | Baltimore | ||||||||
| Trevor May | Vegas Moneyline | Miguel Gonzalez | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | BAL (-185) | RIGHT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.270 | 0.821 | 0.359 | 14.00% | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.261 | 0.770 | 0.341 | 18.80% | ||||
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Trevor May – May may be the worst pitcher on the mound tonight. Through his first 3 major-league starts, he has an 8.79 ERA. While the sample size is extremely small, I’m not expecting much from him tonight as he is facing a powerful Orioles offense in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Avoid May and don’t be afraid to take a few hitters against him. Rating = 2
Salaries: $5000 FD, $8150 DD, $4900 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $9850 FTD
- Miguel Gonzalez – Gonzalez is a pretty average RH pitcher. He owns a 3.75 ERA (4.65 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.2 on the season. He walks quite a few batters (3.1 per 9) and gives up too many HR’s (1.6 per 9). That said, he’s a huge favorite tonight thanks to the fact that Trevor May is pitching opposite him. If you are looking for a cheap #2 pitcher on multi-pitcher sites, Gonzalez should be good for 6+ innings and hopefully a win. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $5900 FD, $11400 DD, $6400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $11400 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
Oswaldo Arcia – As mentioned above, Gonzalez gives up a lot of HR’s. He’s already given up 21 on the season, 12 of which were to LH hitters. Arcia has terrific power against righties and is one of my odds on favorites to hit a HR tonight.
Additional Plays: Joe Mauer
Baltimore
Adam Jones – The Orioles are one of the top offenses to target tonight. They are a huge favorite in a game that features a high run total. May has been awful in his first few major league starts and I’m expecting a big outing from the O’s tonight. Jones gets the nod as the top play as he has had 5 multi-hit games in his last 9.
Additional Plays: Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis, Chris Davis
NY Yankees at Toronto
| NY Yankees | Toronto | ||||||||
| Chris Capuano | Vegas Moneyline | Mark Buehrle | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | TOR (-115) | LEFT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.302 | 0.845 | 0.370 | 16.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.276 | 0.748 | 0.331 | 14.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.240 | 0.694 | 0.304 | 24.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.290 | 0.763 | 0.336 | 13.40% |
| Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs L | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Chris Capuano – There were concerns about Capuano’s age, but he’s actually been a nice surprise for the Yankees this season. He’s pitched well with a 4.37 ERA (3.57 xFIP) and a K/9 of 8.7. He’s had a little bit of bad luck with his .325 BABIP. He’s worth monitoring moving forward, but can safely be avoided against the Blue Jays in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays are finally getting healthy and are one of the best offenses in baseball at home. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5800 FD, $12350 DD, $6700 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Mark Buehrle – Beuhrle got off to a hot start this season, but over the 2nd half of the season he has really struggled. He owns a 6.23 ERA with a low K-rate. He has very limited upside thanks to his inability to strike batters out and he’s facing a Yankees team that makes great contact. Great contact and a hitter-friendly ballpark is not a great combination for Buehrle. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6400 FD, $11550 DD, $5500 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $11550 FTD
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
Martin Prado – Prado has been swinging a hot bat. He has 15 hits, 8 RBI’s, and 8 runs over his last 10 games. He has hit LH pitching well throughout his career and he draws a nice matchup against Buehrle who has given up a .334 wOBA to RH hitters.
Additional Plays: Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Mark Teixeira
Toronto
Jose Bautista – Joey Bats has been making some great contact over the past few games. He’s also hit HR’s in back to back games. He has crushed LH pitching to a tune of a .337 batting average and a .453 wOBA.
Additional Plays: Edwin Encarnacion, Melky Cabrera, Danny Valencia
Philadelphia at NY Mets
| Philadelphia | NY Mets | ||||||||
| David Buchanan | Vegas Moneyline | Jacob Degrom | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | NYM (-150) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.237 | 0.600 | 0.271 | 10.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.250 | 0.722 | 0.323 | 21.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.290 | 0.848 | 0.368 | 17.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.230 | 0.612 | 0.273 | 24.30% |
| Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- David Buchanan – Buchanan is not a recommended fantasy option tonight. He’s had a mediocre rookie season with a 4.21 ERA (4.01 xFIP) and a low K/9 of 5.7. He does draw a nice matchup against the Mets at Citi Field, but run support will be hard to come by with Degrom on the mound. Buchanan is a bit over-priced for the limited upside that he provides. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6400 FD, $12750 DD, $6900 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $12750 FTD
- Jacob Degrom – Degrom is having a terrific rookie season. Despite a subpar month of August, he is still sporting a 3.13 ERA with a K/9 of 8.6. He has managed to keep the ball in the park this season as he has only given up 0.60 HR’s per 9 innings. His price has come down a bit and tonight is a great time to buy low. He’s facing a Phillies offense that is ranked 28th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Rating = 8
Salaries: $8200 FD, $18150 DD, $9000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $18150 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
There aren’t any options that stand out on the Phillies. Degrom is one of the better pitchers taking the mound tonight.
NY Mets
Travis d’Arnaud – Buchanan has some serious reverse splits this season. He has given up a .368 wOBA to RH hitters this season while only giving up a .271 wOBA to LH hitters. D’Arnaud has been much better since the All-Star break as he is batting .250 with a .332 wOBA.
Additional Plays: David Wright
Boston at Tampa Bay
| Boston | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
| Anthony Ranaudo | Vegas Moneyline | Chris Archer | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TBR (-155) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.217 | 0.604 | 0.276 | 21.70% | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.262 | 0.671 | 0.302 | 22.70% | ||||
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Anthony Ranaudo – Ranaudo has pitched well at the Triple-A level this season (2.61 ERA, 111 K’s over 138 innings), but he’s struggled in his first 2 major-league starts. I typically like to target pitchers with a proven big-league track record, so I will be avoiding him tonight against the Rays who are right around the league average in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Rating = 4
Salaries: $4200 FD, $9150 DD, $6000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Chris Archer – Archer is having a terrific month of August. He owns a 1.99 ERA with 39 K’s over 31 innings of work. He will look to cap the month off with another strong start tonight against the Red Sox. Archer typically pitches well at home and boats a nice K/9 of 8.4. The Red Sox are a pretty average team offensively this season and Archer should see plenty of run support with Ranaudo on the mound. He’s looking like one of the better pitching options available tonight. Rating = 7
Salaries: $8600 FD, $15800 DD, $9400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $15800 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Boston
There aren’t any plays that stand out here. Archer has been terrific against LH hitters this season as he has held them to a .277 wOBA.
Tampa Bay
Evan Longoria – Longo hit a HR last night against the Orioles. He has 6 hits over his last 3 games and draws a solid matchup against the rookie Ranaudo who has not looked comfortable on the mound in his first 2 major league starts.
Additional Plays: Matt Joyce, Ben Zobrist