MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, May 3rd
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Don’t get carried away today, especially in single-entry and 3-max tournaments. This is a quintessential MME slate in that: (1) it’s huge; (2) a lot of stacks are kinda the same, all things considered, and (3) there’s gonna be a lot of hoping and praying. A lot of this is because pitching is relatively decent for 2024.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Friday, May 3rd
CHALKY STACKS
Braves at Gavin Stone
Cardinals at Brad Keller and the White Sox Bullpen
Starting off with the Braves is pretty elementary. They have a ton of thump up and down the lineup and face a vulnerable Gavin Stone, who can’t strike anyone out (15.3% K rate) and can get hit hard and well. Lefties Matt Olson, Michael Harris, and Jarred Kelenic are the better bet against Stone’s drastic hard-hit and line drive rsplits, but his high contact rate is fantastic for Marcell Ozuna and his 16.8% barrel rate against RHP. Frankly, we can play all of the Braves in any high-contact spot in any hitter-friendly ballpark.
Also, the Dodgers bullpen is nothing to fear. The active players there collectively have allowed 1.09 HR/9 on a 7.6% barrel rate. Not huge numbers in general, but that power prevention is bad for a bullpen.
The Braves will likely be very highly owned. The middle-class tier should gobble up a lot of ownership because there are so many teams there, but I expect the Braves and Cardinals to gain some steam and run away with ownership, especially in single-entry tournaments.
The Cardinals get to face Brad Keller opening for the league-worst White Sox bullpen. Keller walks more guys than he strikes out, and the Sox ‘pen has allowed a slate-worst 1.57 HR/9 on a 7.9% barrel rate for an abysmal 5.00 xFIP. St. Louis hasn’t been good at all this season, but they get to face a Quad-A pitching unit in a ballpark that’s great for power. I’d rather play the Braves in single-entry tournaments, but if there’s pOWN% separation between the Braves and Cardinals, I’ll pivot to the Cardinals.
We don’t need to get into the weeds with the Cardinals in a ceiling spot for everyone. The double-digit barrel rates of Nolan Gorman (15.6%), Willson Contreras (12%), and Paul Goldschmidt (11%) are where I’m starting. After them, everyone either has great speed or gets on base a lot. Masyn Winn is still too cheap. He hits near the bottom of the order, but he’s getting on base a lot and running a ton. He could get that 5th plate appearance in a blowout since they will get 9 innings of at-bats as the road team.
My armchair prediction is that the Braves come in as the highest-owned team, with the Cardinals in a fairly distant 2nd, and these two are the only stacks with double-digit ownership. Just enough ownership to where playing them together requires us maybe over-leveraging at pitcher, so I’m out on Braves + Cardinals lineups but am all good with going overweight on both. Playing three lineups on each site tonight, I’ll have exposure to them on both sites. In MME, maybe a third of my lineups would have a minimum of three Braves or Cardinals.
PIVOT STACKS
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