PGA DFS Core Plays: THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
I don’t know about all of you, but I was having a hard time getting invested into the Zurich Classic without Shot Tracker. Apparently, the PGA TOUR was testing their newer version of Shot Tracker and didn’t want to release the information to the public. I’ll believe it when I see it. The one positive from last week is that we hit Shane Lowry and Rory McIlroy outright at +750. I think the team event has potential, but they need to jazz it up a bit. They need to let the fans know how each team came about, they need to make it four rounds of alternate shot, and they need to incentivize more of the start to play. These aren’t easy changes, but they would make the event so much more interesting.
We now head back to Texas for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. I don’t know who is in charge of naming these events, but there had to have been a better option. This event has been around for a while, but TPC Craig Ranch has only been the host venue for the last 3 years. You would think a course that measures over 7,400 yards and features water on 13 of the 18 holes would be a tough test for these pros, but that has not been the case. This has played as one of the six easiest courses on the PGA TOUR in each of the last 3 years. Additionally, the winning scores here have been -23 (Jason Day), -25 (K.H. Lee), and -26 (K.H. Lee).
The fairways here are quite wide (37 yards), and the greens are quite large (6,800 square feet). We should see fairly high driving accuracy and greens-in-regulation rates this week. There are three par 5s and a driveable par 4, so golfers will need to take advantage of those birdie and eagle opportunities. The course does set up well for bombers, but driving distance hasn’t been a prerequisite for success here. We’ve seen all types of golfers play well at TPC Craig Ranch over the last 3 years. I will note that there aren’t a lot of wedge shots hit, as nearly 70% of approach shots will come from at least 150 yards.
I’m looking for birdie-makers who have a good track record in Texas and on easy courses.
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PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Field Size:
- 156 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 65 and ties
Weather Forecasts
TPC Craig Ranch
- Location: McKinney, Texas
- Par 71 — 7,414 yards
- Recent winners: Jason Day (2023), K.H. Lee (2022, 2021)
- Difficulty: 2023 (44th), 2022 (47th), 2021 (47th)
- Number of holes with water hazards: 13
- Fairway width in landing areas: 37 yards
- Green type: bentgrass
- Green size: 6,800 square feet
- 2023 tournament averages:
- - Driving distance = 295 yards
- - Driving accuracy = 61%
- - Greens in regulation = 69%
Event and Course Notes
- This is the fourth time TPC Craig Ranch has held this event
- Despite it being a long course with tree-lined fairways and plenty of water, each of the first three events were birdie-fests
- The three par 5s are all reachable, and there is a driveable par 4
- 70% of approach shots in 2023 came from at least 150 yards
- I usually discount around the green in birdie-fests, but the field only hit 69% of greens in regulation in 2023, and many will be scrambling on the three par 5s as well as the driveable par 4
- The early-week forecast is calling for heavy wind and rain all four days
What to Look For
- Birdie or better %
- Strokes gained approach
- Strokes gained off the tee
- Strokes gained putting (emphasis on bentgrass)
- Strokes gained around the green
- Experience in Texas
Core Plays
Adam Scott
DraftKings: $9,600 / pOWN%: 20%
FanDuel: $10,900 / pOWN%: 22%
Good Drive Percentage: 32
Strokes Gained Approach: 59
Strokes Gained Around the Green: 36
Strokes Gained Putting: 12
Birdie or Better %: 3
Bogey Avoidance: 78
While Jason Day and Jordan Spieth can certainly contend this weekend, I like Scott just as much, and he’s significantly cheaper on both sites. He’s been a top-20 machine over the last six months, and he’s done it several ways. One week he’ll gain strokes off the tee and around the green, the next week he’ll gain strokes on approach and putting, and the next week he’ll gain strokes in some other combination. The important part is that he’s capable of gaining strokes in all facets of his game. He has a good track record in Texas and has finished T32 and T8 at this event over the last 2 years.
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