MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, May 4th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Saturday night’s slate looks a bit like Friday night’s, though we’re dealing with just 6 games instead of 9. There’s some legitimately good pitching at the top, but it’s not the deepest pool of arms, either. We’ve also got a grand total of zero teams with implied run totals over 5 as was the case last night. The lack of clarity led to spread out ownership on the hitting side yesterday, and I’m expecting more of the same this evening. It’s worth noting the DK slate is a 6-gamer starting at 6:40 ET, while FanDuel has just 5 games starting at 7:10.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Saturday, May 4th
Chalk Stack? – Orioles at Andrew Abbott (DK only)
While I don’t think we’ll see major chalk here, I do think the Orioles will garner the most collective ownership of any stack. They’re getting a park upgrade going into Great American Smallpark, where they’ll face southpaw Andrew Abbott. Baltimore’s 4.75 implied run total isn’t leaping off the page, but we do have multiple bats in this lineup pulling double-digit pOWN%.
Abbott pitched well last season for the Reds, and he’s got a 3.27 ERA through his first 6 outings of 2024. His 4.47 SIERA is a bit more pedestrian, though we did see a similar ERA/SIERA discrepancy from him last year. What’s concerning for Abbott is the strikeout rate, which has dipped to just 20.1% this year from 26.1% a season ago.
If he’s allowing more contact, that could be a problem in his rather tiny home stadium. Abbott is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, with a career FB% over 52%. Combine the fly-ball rate with a barrel rate of over 9%, and you’ve got a guy who profiles as a homer-prone lefty. He was taken deep just 16 times in 21 games last year, but he’s served up 5 dingers already through 6 turns this season.
The O’s have absolutely crushed left-handed pitching early in this season. We saw them give Carlos Rodon the business just the other day, and there’s a sea of green over here in PlateIQ. Small sample so far, but the projected Orioles lineup is sporting a .461 wOBA, a .384 ISO, and an Ohtani-esque 25.9% barrel rate vs. LHPs on the season. Just silly stuff.
Is it sustainable? Most certainly not, but there’s still a lot of talent here for Abbott to navigate. Ryan Mountcastle (.311 ISO vs. LHP), Anthony Santander (.202), and Adley Rutschman (.193) have hit for the most power over the last 2 seasons combined against lefties, while Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser, and James McCann all have barrel rates on the right side of 10%.
Abbott has been dominant against his fellow lefties, so Gunnar Henderson and Colton Cowser don’t necessarily have to be priorities in your Baltimore stacks. I still like the idea of plugging Henderson in there at what should be lower ownership than most of his right-handed teammates, however.
Salary is an issue with stacking the O’s. Henderson, Rutschman, Mountcastle, Westburg, and Cowser are all over $5,000 on DraftKings. Jorge Mateo ($3,200) and James McCann ($2,500) could see outsized ownership as the only cheapies here, but the projections still adore the Orioles in this spot. They’re pulling around 12% projected stack ownership on DraftKings, yet their optimal rate is pushing 26%!
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