10 Notes Sneak Peek: Week 14
“I almost played that guy!”
It’s a thought I have often on Sundays, and on Sundays like Week 13, it becomes a more of a mantra as I watched the litany of players I “almost” clicked on rack up fantasy points faster than I could enter NBA contests to try and recoup my certain losses (I know, horrible bankroll management, yada yada yada). This week, my “almost played” list is populated by players I gave serious consideration to (Jordan Howard, Travis Kelce, Spencer Ware), to players I toyed with the idea of rostering (Dontrelle Inman, LeSean McCoy, Ladarius Green), to players I literally didn’t know existed before they showed up in the optimal lineup spit out by RotoGrinders’ Lineup Builders (Josh Bellamy). And then there’s Latavius Murray. In 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes for Week 13, I wrote out a list of reasons to play Murray even though I thought he’d go overlooked. Guess how many of my lineups featured Latavius Murray? (I’ll give you a hint: it’s the same number of touchdown passes thrown in Week 13 by a certain New Orleans QB).
But when you’re in that mental space where, as you’re watching the games, as you’re questioning every decision you made and envisioning your bankroll lying in an ashy heap after Drew Brees set fire to it, Keyzer Soze-style (and like that…it’s gone), it’s easy to lump every player who had any modicum of success into the “almost played” category. All of the “almost played” become the same; there’s no distinguishing between the guys who you seriously considered and the guys you simply gave a passing thought to before scrolling down.
In case I haven’t given it away, the story of my week is that I played Drew Brees just about everywhere: in cash, in tournaments, in season-long…if I hadn’t sold my X-Box One, I would’ve played as him in Madden.
It didn’t work out so well.
I actually considered just going all-in and playing Brees in literally every contest I entered. I understood the game theory of the tournament fade of a QB who would likely be one of the highest-owned of the season, but I felt that there were enough value plays I was comfortable with (Theo Riddick, Anquan Boldin, Tyreek Hill, Dorial Green-Beckham) that I wasn’t sacrificing a ton by taking the “guaranteed” points and going with Brees (and, if I’m being honest, the fact that I was still haunted by memories of Russell Wilson’s dud performance last week also played a part in wanting to pay up for a “safe” QB this week). Except, that is, for a bunch of tournament lineups, where I pivoted over…to Colin Kaepernick.
So you can understand why the “almost played him” bug got me this week.
I think DFS players (or me, but I assume I’m not alone here) might think this way for two reasons. The first reason is that you’ve done your due diligence and thoroughly considered everyone worth considering. You’ve scoured the dregs of the player pool, examining every possible scenario. You’ve thought deeply about pricing and maybe built 10, or 20, or 100 lineups to get a feel for the best path to roster construction this week. You’ve set aside biases, ignored your “never again” list, and truly considered every viable player available to you. You really have “almost” rostered a ton of players, because you’ve weighed all your options. That’s a good thing.
The second reason “I almost played that guy!” can be a recurring thought on Sunday afternoons is one that requires us to be a little more honest, a little more self-critical. “I almost played that guy!” can be an indicator of a scattered, haphazard approach to research, of trying to read every article and follow every expert’s advice without following any of our own convictions.
I was certainly guilty of this this week. It was a crazy week, and I was busy with work, and I chose the worst possible time (Friday night, when I usually do most of my research) to start watching Westworld on HBO Go. Six episodes later, I’d stayed up too late, done zero NFL research, and…you get it.
I loved Latavius Murray this week. I loved Jordy Nelson this week. I wrote about them in my article. But after writing, I made little time to do additional research, so I started adding every player I heard touted to my growing “almost played him” list, without really considering the reasons why I should or shouldn’t play them. And what I should have done, as soon as I realized that my research for this week hadn’t been optimal (unlike Westworld, which might be the optimal show), was to limit the amount I played. I didn’t, and it’s a lesson learned. I hope you all had better luck than me, or at the very least, I hope you didn’t roster Colin Kaepernick.
Enough of that. On to this week’s recap.
All this happened, more or less…
Recapping 10 noteworthy happenings from Sunday’s games.
1. Drew Brees had the clunker of all clunkers. Throughout the week, I heard numerous people refer to Brees a “lock” or “guarantee” for 300 yards at home. And he did reach 300 yards at home. Unfortunately, he threw for the same number of touchdowns as you, or me, or Colin Kaepernick. As a final middle finger to all who rostered him, Brees threw his third interception in the end zone on the game’s final play. It was just the third game in Brees’s 87 games as a Saint dating back to 2006 that he threw for zero touchdowns and three or more interceptions (he had previously done it in 2007 and 2012).
2. Even apart from Brees, the Saints/Lions cornucopia of DFS goodness was, for the most part, a disappointment. Theo Riddick salvaged a 17-total-yard day with a touchdown. Golden Tate justified his price increase with a big game (eight catches, 144 yards, one touchdown). Matthew Stafford had his third 300-yard game of the year and added two scores. Brandin Cooks complained his way into nine targets and 73 yards. But Eric Ebron, Anquan Boldin, Mark Ingram, Tim Hightower, Michael Thomas, and Willie Snead all busted, making it a frustrating day if you relied heavily on the game.
3. In the battle of chalky elite RBs, David Johnson (somewhat predictably, given the far superior matchup) came out ahead of Le’Veon Bell, though both backs were excellent. Johnson totaled 177 yards and two scores, while Bell recorded 183 total yards. Bell failed to reach the endzone and fumbled for the first time since his rookie year. Then he made this face, winning in the GIF-able facial expression department by a landslide:
4. Jordan Howard reminded us of the 49ers portion of the 2016 NFL DFS flow chart: “Is the running back playing the 49ers defense? If yes, play that running back.” In heavy snow, Howard carried the ball 32 times (second-most of any RB in a game this year), scored three times, and spared Bears fans the agony of having to watch Matt Barkley throw a football more than 20 times. The 49ers have now allowed a 100-yard rusher in nine of 12 games this year.
5. Jeremy Hill was a popular value play in large part because, at $4,300 at DraftKings, he could see over 20 carries. He saw over 20 carries (23, actually), and turned it into 33 yards. It was just the fifth time in NFL history that a player received 23+ carries and 33 or fewer yards; the other players to do it are Mike Gillislee (2016), Chris Ivory (2015), Chris Warren (1993), Paul Robinson (1968), and my high school’s finest export (apart from maybe Ish Smith), Natrone Means (1995).
6. Joe Flacco decided it was about time he stopped being awful and threw for a week-leading 379 yards and four touchdowns. And he brought his BFF Dennis Pitta along for the ride. Pitta had zero touchdowns in Weeks 1-12 despite being tied for fourth among TEs with 52 receptions. In Week 13, he caught two.
7. It was a good, old-fashioned snow game at Lambeau Field, and Jordy Nelson didn’t care. He continued his recent stretch of dominance, recording a touchdown for his fifth game in the past six weeks. Randall Cobb made snow angels.
(My favorite part of that GIF is how, initially, the Packers players come up to Cobb to celebrate. Then they back off, like, “Oh wait. He’s making snow angels. Better leave him be.”)
8. Colin Kaepernick didn’t fare so well in the snow, having completed just one of five passes for four yards into the fourth quarter when he was summarily benched for Blaine Gabbert, who was Joe Montana by comparison, completing four of nine passes for 35 yards.
9. Dorial Green-Beckham, of all people, emerged as a chalky, min-salary option on Sunday morning after Jordan Matthews was ruled out. (I’m just realizing that, above, I said I was “comfortable” playing Dorial Green-Beckham does weird things to you). Green-Beckham received 10 targets (though he only converted it into four catches for 29 yards) before leaving in the second half with a rib injury. I’ll forever look back on Week 13 of the NFL season as that one weird time that rostering DGB actually made sense. It was fun while it lasted.
10. Cam Newton was benched by Ron Rivera for the first play of the game for a “wardrobe violation.” On the very first play of the game, Derek Anderson threw an interception, leading to a Seattle field goal. Attaboy, Riverboat Ron.
Looking ahead to Week 14…
First impressions of 10 noteworthy players for Week 14, using DraftKings pricing.
1. Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. NO) — $6,700 —Week 14 looks like an odd week at QB with none of the high-end signal callers in elite spots. Given how many were burned by Brees this week, I expect the pendulum to shift towards the mid-tier at QB. Winston is far from safe, and his history against New Orleans is pretty pedestrian (totaled 389 yards, two touchdowns in two career games), but the Bucs are favored by three in the game with the highest total of the week (51 at time of writing). The Saints rank 25th in the NFL in pass defense DVOA, and they’ve given up multiple passing scores in eight of 12 games this year, including to guys like Jared Goff, Colin Kaepernick, Trevor Semien, and Alex Smith. Winston could easily join that list.
2. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (at GB) —$6,600 — It’s difficult to gauge what the chalk will be next week before this week’s games are over, but I expect Wilson will be popular against a Packers defense that ranks 23rd in pass defense DVOA and just made Brock Osweiler look like a competent NFL QB. Wilson was solid, not spectacular, on Sunday night, but the Seahawks led the entire game, which led to him being pulled early. He’s ran the ball 19 times in the past three weeks, which gives him the floor necessary to be a cash game staple.
3. David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals (@ MIA) — $9,800 — Only Odell Beckham, Jr., Michael Crabtree, and Travis Kelce have more targets than Johnson over the past two weeks. Miami (19th in rush defense DVOA) is a good-not-great matchup, but for Johnson, it makes absolutely zero difference. Cash game builds should begin with Johnson, although his price is reaching the point that he really limits what you can do in tournaments.
4. Matt Forte, New York Jets (at SF) — $6,800 — No matter what happens in his Monday Night Football matchup with the Colts, Forte should be popular given what Jordan Howard did to the 49ers this week. In the five games this year where Forte has eclipsed 20 carries, he’s reached 20 DraftKings points in four of those games. The 49ers pace ensures that Forte should see as many carries as he can handle in Week 14.
5. Jordan Howard, Chicago Bears (at DET) — $6,400 — Until Alshon Jeffery returns, Howard is all the Bears have on offense, as evidenced by his 32 carries this week (all other Bears’ backs combined for three carries). The Lions rank 28th in rush defense DVOA, and they’ve also been prone to giving up yardage to RBs through the air (I mean, Chris Ivory had 75 receiving yards against them – that’s 15 percent of his career receiving yards). His price has remained stable at $6,400 despite his monster Week 13 performance, which makes him a nice value this week.
6. Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. NO) — $8,900 — He’s more expensive than Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and Odell Beckham, Jr., and he’s coming off a game in which he only saw six targets, his second-fewest of the season. He’s totaled 16.9 and 6.4 DraftKings points in two career games against the Saints. But Evans won’t see single-digit targets two games in a row, and if this game turns into a shootout, he’ll be a large part of the reason why. It’ll be tough to fit him in cash lineups with David Johnson at DraftKings, but he’s got massive tournament upside against the Saints secondary.
7. Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks (at GB) — $6,800 — Despite the Seahawks scoring 40 on the Panthers on Sunday night, Baldwin’s contributions were modest, as he notched 65 yards on seven catches. Despite the phenomenal matchup, though, Baldwin’s price remains relatively low, making him a perfect stack candidate with Russell Wilson, and if you don’t fear Richard Sherman and want to run it back, Jordy Nelson is priced identically to Baldwin at $6,800.
8. Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos (at TEN) — $5,700 — This hinges on the availability of Trevor Siemien (which is an odd thing to say). Sanders had developed a rapport with Siemien that culminated with his best game of the year in Week 12 (seven catches, 162 yards, one touchdown). He’s being priced as if Paxton Lynch will be throwing to him, and against the Titans’ 26th-ranked (DVOA) pass defense, Sanders could represent a value in Week 14.
9. Brandon LaFell, Cincinnati Bengals (at CLE) — $5,000 — Since A.J. Green went down with injury, LaFell and Tyler Boyd have been targeted in terms of volume (14 for LaFell, 13 for Boyd), but LaFell’s average depth of target is 13.9 yards, while Boyd’s is 9.4 yards. LaFell got into the endzone in Week 13, which doesn’t hurt, but the real selling point here is the matchup. The Browns rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, and in Week 7, aka “”(player-popup)Andy Dalton”:/players/andy-dalton-11633 Is Chalk Week,” Dalton threw for 308 yards and two TDs, one of which went to LaFell.
10. Ladarius Green, Pittsburgh Steelers (at BUF) — $3,900 — Green made Vernon Davis owners (of at least this Vernon Davis owner) feel silly in Week 13, as he tallied six catches on 11 targets, 110 yards, one TD. Only five times this year has a TE reached or exceeded those numbers (Gronk, Graham, Olsen, Delanie, Witten). In Week 14, he should be the chalk against a Bills team that ranks 27th in DVOA against the tight end position, even despite a serious price hike (he was $2,800 in Week 13).
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Thanks for reading! All stats from this article were pulled from Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, NFL.com, and FootballGuys.com.
Be sure to check out “10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes” for NFL Week 13, which will be published on Thursday or Friday. Good luck this week!