Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 5

by Bryan Fontaine (rookieblitz) Last Updated 2014-10-07 16:24:06

With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football and more new users arriving by the day, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone will not give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups. Using data from Pro Football Focus provides a unique way to look at player statistics and participation not found anywhere else.

I’ve gone with some less obvious and contrarian picks worth using in large field tournaments with a lower ownership percentage. That doesn’t mean there won’t be chalk players listed – there are still players that need to be in your lineup.

Last week’s picks were abysmal. Many of my recommendations bombed (I’m looking at you Tom Brady) so I’m ready to get back to it this week. It is a good reminder to keep a good process over chasing results. But I still hate to be wrong.
Here are the picks this week:

QB Eli Manning – Giants vs ATL

It’s been a few weeks since we’ve seen Eli Manning-Face.

On the national stage last week, Manning threw for four touchdowns and ran in another in the Giants’ blowout win. Not many daily players used Manning in their lineups last week and missed out on the barrage of fantasy goodness from the 11th year signal caller and his tight end Larry Donnell (who has reached Chuck Norris-level fame). It’s a good bet that most will consider this just Eli tearing up a poor Redskins’ injury-riddled secondary and that he hasn’t turned a corner yet. Manning’s play the last two weeks (73% completion percentage, 534 yards passing, 6 TD, 1 INT and just two sacks) says otherwise. He’s finally comfortable in Ben McAdoo’s quick strike offense and will lead to a career best completion percentage at year end.

The Falcons have been dreadful on defense recently. They don’t pop in the RotoGrinders Defense vs. Position against quarterbacks because they have somehow only surrendered three passing touchdowns in four games. However, they are giving up 283 yards per game and have only hit the opposing quarterbacks 9 times in four games (3 sacks, 6 hits) with a subpar pressure rate (31%) on total drop backs faced. Facing a quarterback now getting the ball out quicker and more often with an up-tempo approach means bad things for the Falcons. Eli’s average time to throw (2.27) is second in the league only to his brother Peyton.

Despite the big day last week, Manning is still likely to be under owned because of the flashier options available.

Eli Manning Projection

Att: 35.8
Comp: 22.42
Yards: 280.0
PTD: 2.0
Int: 0.58
RYards: 1.7
RTD: 0.08

QB Russell Wilson – Seahawks at WAS

Week 5 concludes with the Seahawks visiting the reeling Washington football team that will cap off a weekend with several individuals winning large sums of money across the industry. If you needed one player to sweat out a large pay day on Monday night – Russell C. Wilson is your choice.

The Seahawks are a touchdown favorite on the road against a team with a stout run defense. Washington’s front seven led by Jason Hatcher has been the third toughest team to run on through four games. Seattle’s strength is the ground game; however, this game is setting up to be a pass heavy attack for Wilson. Wilson has been quietly efficient when asked to pass this year and his three game sample size shows incremental improvements in accuracy, decrease in interceptions with less sacks taken. The lack of a true deep threat has caused his aDOT (average depth of throw) to fall by about a full three yards over 2013.

Washington was shredded by Eli Manning last week – largely due to the rash of injuries in their defensive backfield. They haven’t surrendered an alarming number of yards through four games, though nine touchdowns in the same span stings. Even their 15 sacks are misleading because the team sacked Jacksonville 10 times in Week 2.

Russell Wilson Projection

Att: 29.3
Comp: 18.41
Yards: 235.0
PTD: 2.0
Int: 0.65
RYards: 41.5
RTD: 0.53

RB LeSean McCoy – Eagles vs STL

Warren Buffett’s famous quote to be greedy when others are fearful applies directly to LeSean McCoy this week. I was one of the unlucky individuals who thought McCoy made an intriguing contrarian tournament play against the 49ers. While I have apprehension of going back to the well with McCoy – he is bound to see positive regression soon. In his last two games, McCoy has averaged a paltry 1.3 YPC and only received a 5% market share of the team targets. Darren Sproles hasn’t been much better as the passing down back with a 9% market share of targets and runs – though McCoy has still seen 83% of the team runs during this two game span. With Chip Kelly already swearing off injury as an excuse, we need to be optimistic that the return of RT Lane Johnson will inject life into the Eagles’ offensive line woes.

The Rams do not pose as much of a test that the tough run defenses of San Francisco and Washington did. In St. Louis’ three games thus far, they have allowed running backs to average 5.3 YPC and have missed a tackle on 30% on opposing running back rushing attempts. The fact that they’ve only surrendered two rushing touchdowns makes them a middle of the pack defense in terms of fantasy points allowed. The underlying metrics indicate they will miss Chris Long on their front seven.

We can expect Kelly to get his best offensive weapon back on track this week. Based on his high salary and poor success the previous two weeks – it would be shocking to see McCoy’s ownership level above 5% in a large field GPP.

LeSean McCoy Projection

Car: 20.4
Yards: 105.5
TD: 0.8
Rec: 3.2
ReYards: 26.8
ReTD: 0.1

RB Le’Veon Bell – Steelers at JAX

Le’Veon Bell was a disappointment against Tampa Bay last week. It is clear the return of Gerald McCoy had a large impact on the Steelers’ lack of success on the ground. Bell’s six receptions helped his case on full PPR sites from becoming a full scale disaster. At least we can forgive and forget in daily fantasy.

Bell has an even better matchup this week against Jacksonville. The Jaguars put the clamps on the Chargers’ run game last week (42 yards, 2.1 YPC) that makes their season averages allowed as deceiving. Removing the San Diego game from the equation, Jacksonville has allowed 4.5 YPC, 4 touchdowns and a whiff rate of 29% on tackle attempts.

Despite a lack of success in the box score last week – Bell is still averaging a full yard both before and after contact than he did last season.

Le’Veon Bell Projection

Car: 17.8
Yards: 83.3
TD: 0.9
Rec: 3.9
ReYards: 36.6
ReTD: 0.1

RB Rashad Jennings – Giants vs ATL

Rashad Jennings is the recommendation with the most chalk this week. You would be really doing yourself a disservice without any exposure to Jennings. Some might balk at this notion given Jennings’ last outing (55 yards rushing, just 35% market share of rushing attempts) but the matchup is too enticing. Andre Williams saw 80% (12 of 15) of his carries last week in the second half with the Giants leading by at least 10 points. They were not going to risk any additional workload for Jennings with the game in hand.

Atlanta is fresh off of a poor showing in Minnesota where they allowed Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata to combine for 213 yards rushing and three touchdowns. In their last four games, they have allowed running backs to top 541 yards rushing (4.5 YPC) and 8 touchdowns.

Jennings didn’t break down last week and Williams got the bulk of the work as the game winded down. This is a prime matchup to exploit regardless of ownership levels.

Rashad Jennings Projection

Car: 20.2
Yards: 100.5
TD: 1.3
Rec: 1.8
ReYards: 15.5
ReTD: 0.1

RB Bishop Sankey – Titans vs CLE

Bishop Sankey is a dark horse candidate this weekend to put up a big fantasy day. The coaching staff has already indicated that Sankey will see the most work he has seen to date against a poor Cleveland run defense. That coincides with his gradual increase in snaps (41% and 45%) and rushing attempts (36% and 55% market share) the last two weeks.

The rookie everyone was fawning over this summer looks primed to inherit the role many pundits predicted for him originally. Sankey only has small sample size of 24 carries, but is averaging over 5.0 yards per carry with a near-even split in yards before and after contact (2.6 and 2.5).

As noted above, Cleveland has struggled to stop the run in their first three games. They have allowed 403 yards and 4 touchdowns in that span with several notable performances: Le’Veon Bell 109 yards, Mark Ingram 83 yards and Lorenzo Taliaferro 91 yards.

Sankey is a GPP-only play but the underlying metrics indicate he could have a larger than expected fantasy day.

Bishop Sankey Projection

Car: 12.4
Yards: 59.4
TD: 0.6
Rec: 1.8
ReYards: 13.4
ReTD: 0.0

WR Alshon Jeffery – Bears at CAR

Initially this game on the schedule looked like a tough matchup for the Bears but the Panthers have been nothing like their lights out defense of 2013. In fact, because they are still viewed as a top defense – most may be hesitant to plug any Bears into their lineups on the road.

Jeffery looks primed to take advantage this week. Brandon Marshall is hobbled with an ankle injury and should play, but the focus will be square on Jeffery. He has shown no ill-effects of his hamstring troubles and has been a target hog the past two weeks (29% market share). Jeffery finally got his first touchdown of 2014 last week and is getting the looks in the red zone to boost those totals in the coming weeks. Martellus Bennett has been the biggest beneficiary of the wide receiver injuries – though it won’t be surprising to see Bennett take a step back in lieu of additional red zone looks to Jeffery.

Jeffery should be locked up with Josh Norman for the most of the afternoon – a plus matchup for Jeffery. The Panthers have allowed wide receivers to total 636 yards receiving and six touchdowns in four weeks.

Alshon Jeffery Projection

Rec: 6.6
ReYards: 106.6
ReTD: 1.0
RuYards: 5.8
TD: 0.0

WR Rueben Randle – Giants vs ATL

Given the exuberance towards Eli and Jennings above – it only makes sense to pair Manning with one of his top receivers. Randle has been flying under the radar recently without a touchdown catch the last two weeks but his involvement in the passing game indicates a big day is on the horizon. His involvement has remained high (87% and 90% snaps) and more importantly, he is seeing plenty of targets. His 19 targets the last two weeks equates to a 29% market share. Using Mike Clay’s oTD resource, we know that Randle should have scored an additional touchdown and a half based on the opportunities he has received in the red zone.

As for his matchup this week, Randle will see plenty of Robert Alford at RCB:

Robert Alford Coverage Stats

Alford has given up two short red zone touchdowns in addition to the long touchdown to Mohamed Sanu a few weeks back. Randle will add to that total this weekend.

Rueben Randle Projection

Rec: 5.4
ReYards: 84.5
ReTD: 0.6
RuYards: 0.0
TD: 0.0

WR Golden Tate – Lions vs BUF

With Calvin Johnson again a game time decision this weekend (and possible decoy again) – Golden Tate is in line for another big fantasy day. Sticking mostly to the slot (52%), Tate received 33% of the team targets in route to an 8-116 box score. He had practiced some of Johnson’s routes earlier in the week but with his partner in crime on the field, he was able to focus on the slot duties.

This week Tate will see a lot of Nickell Robey in coverage. The second year undrafted free agent has been burned several times already this year. Through four games, Robey is allowing opponents to catch 92% of their passes for 164 yards (120 yards after the catch).

Tate offers some safety but also some huge upside given his individual matchup. He has at least 5 catches for 50 yards in all four games and has at least 6 for 90 yards in two of those games.

Golden Tate Projection

Rec: 6.0
ReYards: 75.3
ReTD: 0.9
RuYards: 0.0
TD: 0.0

WR Brandin Cooks – Saints vs TB

Cooks was another huge miss last week. Dallas grinding out the clock kept the Saints from getting any rhythm or consistency in their offense until late in the game. His snaps increased from 71% to 81% but his market share dropped from 29% down to 12% this week. Cooks is still averaging 7 targets per game.

We thought Cooks was going to school Claiborne and Scandrick last week. At least this week Cooks will square off against Johnthan Banks – the third worst cornerback in the whole NFL per Pro Football Focus.

Banks is allowing a 123.6 QB rating in his coverage, with an aDOT of 15.3 yards downfield. His catch rate allowed of 81% is below average. Cooks was a victim of the Saints’ defense last week. Drew Brees will have no issues at home getting the football to his main playmakers.

Brandin Cooks Projection

Rec: 6.7
ReYards: 89.0
ReTD: 0.5
RuYards: 3.8
TD: 0.1

TE Delanie Walker – Titans vs CLE

The tight end position looks sparse this week if we don’t pay up for the top options. Delanie Walker appears to be a player we can consider one of the top tight ends in the league until he is priced accordingly. He isn’t much of a secret any longer with a touchdown rate of 14% and eight targets a game. Walker’s ability to line up in the slot helps him receive a large portion of the target market share for the entire team.

Cleveland has struggled with stopping opposing tight ends through three weeks:

Browns vs TE – 2014

Whether it is Karlos Dansby or one of their cornerbacks, there has been success to be had against the Browns with opposing tight ends.

Delanie Walker Projection

Rec: 6.4
ReYards: 74.3
ReTD: 0.8

TE Travis Kelce – Chiefs at SF

The fact the Travis Kelce played on Monday night kept his salary relatively the same this week and didn’t price in his breakout performance. It is my duty to highlight players that could be in for larger roles using PFF’s advanced metrics. What Kelce did in Week 4 was jaw dropping.

Kelce was targeted a staggering nine times on just 17 pass routes (53% rate) and had 36% of the market share of targets. On top of that, his aDOT was only 2.0 yards downfield but he gained all 93 yards after the catch. His snap totals fell for the first time this year from 65% to 53% but was more a circumstance of game flow and not exposing him to an unnecessary injury.

It will be extremely hard to fade Baby Gronk this weekend. Do so at your own peril. The fact that the 49ers have been tough on opposing tight ends should suppress some of his ownership levels. He looks like he will be matchup proof and Alex Smith has a revenge game this week too if you hadn’t heard.

Travis Kelce Projection

Rec: 5.9
ReYards: 70.8
ReTD: 0.5