Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 6

by Bryan Fontaine (rookieblitz) Last Updated 2014-10-13 15:30:16

With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football and more new users arriving by the day – simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone will not give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups. Using data from Pro Football Focus provides a unique way to look at player statistics and participation not found anywhere else.
I’ve gone with some less obvious and contrarian picks worth using in large field tournaments with a lower ownership percentage. That doesn’t mean there won’t be chalk players listed – there are still players that need to be in your lineup.

The recommendations last week were a vast improvement from Week 4. Let’s build on our recent success and hope to avoid any future coach-speak landmines (I’m looking at you Bishop Sankey).

Here are the picks this week:

QB Matt Ryan – Falcons vs CHI

Atlanta’s offensive line has been a hot mess this year and gives us pause about trusting Matt Ryan at the pivotal quarterback spot on our daily fantasy rosters. In Week 5, Atlanta used three new starters across the line and while they allowed just one sack in each of the last two games – Ryan is facing pressure on about 40 percent of his drop backs.

Here is how his passing breaks down by game when facing pressure and no pressure:

Matt Ryan Passing Under Pressure

Matt Ryan Passing Without Pressure

Outside of his debacle in Week 2 at Cincinnati, Ryan has been as good as any quarterback in the league when not facing pressure. Not a surprise there. It does bode well for his matchup against Chicago this week though.

Chicago is only generating pressure on 30 percent of their drop backs faced (net gain of 10% to Ryan). Through five games, the Bears are averaging two sacks, three hits and 10 hurries – all totals that are music to Matt Ryan’s ears. One of the main things that Dirk Koetter is doing is throwing shorter and quicker. When Ryan attempts a pass in 2.5 or less his completion percentage is 73.7. When he takes longer than 2.6 seconds to throw – his completion percentage drops to 60.0 percent. This doesn’t mean that Atlanta’s offensive line won’t struggle but with the changes that the offensive coaching staff is doing to mask their deficiencies with play calling – Ryan will have a big day.

Matt Ryan Projection

Att: 37.6
Comp: 24.7
Yards: 308.4
PTD: 2.9
Int: 1.0
RYards: 2.8
RTD: 0.2

QB Kirk Cousins – Redskins at ARI

Kirk Cousins rebounded with a solid fantasy day against a tough Seattle defense just one week after throwing four picks. He took what the defense gave him and his aDOT (average depth of throw) was almost three full yards less than his season average to date. Of course that included his 60-yard bomb to DeSean Jackson at the start of the third quarter.

Cousins gets to strike while the iron is hot with the Arizona defense hurting. Not only did Peyton Manning post a career high in yardage (479) but the Cardinals lost their linchpin defensive end Calais Campbell for several weeks. And with the uncertainty of who starts at quarterback for Arizona has led Vegas to hold off posting a line for this game (as of press time). Even after their meltdown last week, Arizona is surrendering 310 yards passing and two touchdowns a game. Their pressure has been non-existent. They’ve averaged a sack, two quarterback hits and 12 hurries per game – nothing that will strike fear into Washington. We might get another big fantasy day from DeSean Jackson who faces Patrick Peterson in coverage.

Take advantage of the industry pricing Cousins for this week before knowing his final results on Monday Night Football.

Kirk Cousins Projection

Att: 40.7
Comp: 25.3
Yards: 305.7
PTD: 2.2
Int: 1.4
RYards: 5.2
RTD: 0.0

RB LeSean McCoy – Eagles vs NYG

LeSean McCoy makes an appearance for a third straight week in this space. He really has no business being a top play given his recent performances, but he is still worth considering. In a society of what have you done for me lately – rostering McCoy this week might cause you bodily harm.

From what I’ve seen, McCoy is pressing while on the field rather than taking what the defense is giving him. He’s been improving his play steadily but has come nowhere near paying off his modest price tag. The part that should give us hope is that in the last two games he has played 75% of the snaps and handled 78% of the designed running plays for Philadelphia. His 27 touches last week mean the team has not given up on him. Most fantasy owners may though if he continues to score about 10 PPR points per game less than he did in 2013.

The Giants defense has struggled with pass-catching backs this year – allowing an average of 6.8 catches and 78.6 yards receiving per game. McCoy has to be a big part of the Eagles game plan if they want to defend their home turf against their division rivals.

LeSean McCoy Projection

Car: 19.0
Yards: 93.3
TD: 1.1
Rec: 3.2
ReYards: 23.4
ReTD: 0.1

RB Fred Jackson – Bills vs NE

Fred Jackson just won’t quit. Just when we want to anoint C.J. Spiller as the do everything back – Jackson just keeps producing. Coming off a quality outing against a stout Detroit run defense, Jackson is primed to post another solid outing against a New England team that we aren’t quite sure what to make of yet.

Jackson has bested Spiller in snaps (59%) and targets (19%) in the last two games but Spiller has the slight edge in carries (57% to 39%). Regardless of which running back is on the field, having a veteran quarterback in Kyle Orton prevented the Lions from stacking eight in the box to sell out for the run.

New England has struggled with opposing running backs this year – most notably Moreno/Miller and Charles/Davis in Week 1 and 4. They have given up an average of 111 yards per game at 4.7 yards per carry with 2.5 yards of that coming after first contact. Cincinnati had mild success running the ball with Gio Bernard last week (15 touches for 72 yards) but the game script dictated that they move away from the ground game to make a comeback bid.

Jackson will be in for another big day if he can continue to average five catches per game. It is also worth noting that he has yet to score a rushing touchdown despite 10 red zone carries. He’s “due”.

Fred Jackson Projection

Car: 17.0
Yards: 74.5
TD: 0.7
Rec: 2.9
ReYards: 24.3
ReTD: 0.0

RB Ronnie Hillman – Broncos at NYJ

It’s the next man up in Denver and by all accounts it looks like Ronnie Hillman will get to reprise his relief role from Week 5. The recent winning lineups in the large field guaranteed prize pool tournaments have featured at least one value running back for the minimum or near minimum in most cases. That is where Hillman comes in this week and he’ll be somewhat contrarian because of the supposed tough matchup with the Jets.

The Jets’ run defense has been feared most weeks this season when evaluating running back plays against them. Lucky for us, the last two weeks have shown that they can be run on. For the first three weeks of the season, Oakland, Green Bay and Chicago ran the ball a combined 46 times for 118 yards (2.6 YPC). Then Detroit and San Diego have combined for 61 carries and 239 yards (3.9 YPC). Part of their problem is the Jets are getting run all over when going with less than seven in the box. In that same two game stretch, they have allowed 93 yards on 14 carries (6.6 YPC) and a touchdown this past week. Branden Oliver ran in a touchdown from 15 yards out on 3rd and 2 against nickel coverage.

There is always the threat that Denver changes up their running back rotation or make it more of a committee but Hillman has an excellent chance to exceed his industry price this week.

Ronnie Hillman Projection

Car: 11.3
Yards: 54.0
TD: 0.3
Rec: 2.4
ReYards: 23.5
ReTD: 0.0

RB Andre Ellington – Cardinals vs WAS

Andre Ellington is coming off a somewhat lucky game with a big fantasy total that is misleading. It wasn’t for his long screen pass from Logan Thomas that he took to the house – his score would have been underwhelming.

Ellington is fortunate that Arizona is going to need to lean on him against Washington because of their unsettled quarterback situation. Washington has been a tough run defense like the Jets but the Redskins are also showing signs of regressing to the mean. In the Redskins’ last two games they have allowed 252 yards rushing (4.1 YPC). The problem they are facing is that running backs are gaining more than 2.4 yards per carry before they are contacted by a Washington defender.

If Ellington has more than 20 combined touches – he will be another one of the stars of the day.

Andre Ellington Projection

Car: 17.1
Yards: 78.1
TD: 0.7
Rec: 3.4
ReYards: 36.4
ReTD: 0.1

WR Brandon Marshall – Bears at ATL

It’s always a good sign when the head coach of a team indicates a player needs more targets like Marc Trestman said this week. Unless you are Ken Whisenhunt making up stuff about Bishop Sankey – but we aren’t bitter or anything. It appears that Brandon Marshall is looking near 100 percent health.

Six catches for 69 yards in three games presents the perfect entry point to reinvest in Marshall this week on the road in the highest projected total of the weekend. He figures to see a lot of Robert McClain in the slot and possibly Desmond Trufant at flanker. The strange aspect of Marshall’s box score in his last two games is that on those 10 targets, his aDOT was 15.3 yards downfield – almost a full four yards higher than his year to date aDOT. Trusting Trestman this week would be a terrific tactic. We should see a vintage Marshall performance at a discount across the industry.

Brandon Marshall Projection

Rec: 6.3
ReYards: 114.3
ReTD: 0.8
RuYards: 0.2
TD: 0.0

WR Torrey Smith – Ravens at TB

More coach speak, but John Harbaugh has indicated it is a focus to get Torrey Smith going. It’s no secret that Smith has been a disappointment to date. Outside of his 2 for 53 and a touchdown box score in Week 4, his season has been forgettable.

Lucky for Smith, he gets an elixir to get going this week by the name of Johnthan Banks. You might remember him from previous weeks as one of the worst cover cornerbacks in the league. He has moved up one spot in the rankings and now is the fourth worst corner in the league per Pro Football Focus. That was largely due to limiting Brandin Cooks to three catches for 13 yards in Week 5. Through five weeks, he is still allowing a 78% catch rate with an average of four catches for 46 yards and 0.2 touchdowns.

If the Ravens want to get Smith more involved they will need to do it on shorter and more consistent routes. Smith’s aDOT the past two games is 21.2 yards downfield. With most still believing in Steve Smith, Torrey Smith makes a good pivot and actually has the better cornerback matchup this week.

Torrey Smith Projection

Rec: 6.2
ReYards: 87.3
ReTD: 0.6
RuYards: 0.4
TD: 0.0

WR Wes Welker – Broncos at NYJ

We haven’t seen the Wes Welker of old yet through two games but he will return to form this week. If we take a quick trip down Narrative Street, Tony Dungy said this week that Peyton Manning will force feed the football to one of his receivers that is struggling to rebuild their confidence. Presto, Demaryius Thomas with a team record in receiving yards against Arizona. If we follow that logic down an alleyway of Narrative Street – we can make a case for Welker this week.

The top three cornerbacks for the Jets have allowed 67 catches for 600 yards (9.0 YPC) and five touchdowns in coverage this year. Kyle Wilson will likely draw honors to cover Welker in the slot and although he hasn’t been test much this year (10 receptions for 136 yards and a touchdown).

Welker has the quietest 9.0 targets per game in the league but he’s flying under the radar because of the lack of touchdowns. Welker scored at a 14% clip last year and has yet to see a red zone opportunity in two games. That all changes this week and Welker becomes the Broncos’ receiver to select.

Wes Welker Projection

Rec: 7.1
ReYards: 102.4
ReTD: 1.0
RuYards: 0.6
TD: 0.0

WR Allen Robinson – Jaguars at TEN

Allen Robinson continues to elevate himself as the Jaguars’ top receiving threat even though his box score results have been underwhelming. In his last two games, Robinson has played on 85% of the snaps, received 8.5 targets per week and has a 24% market share of the total team targets. Given his ample opportunity, he is bound to capitalize on his opportunities this week in an easier matchup.

This week Robinson draws a matchup with Blidi Wreh-Wilson. Wilson should be best known for giving up a touchdown reception to quarterback Andy Dalton. Yes, that Andy Dalton:

Blidi Wreh-Wilson 2014 Defensive Coverage

With the Jacksonville ground game non-existent, Blake Bortles is going to have to rely on his go-to guy this week. It should not surprise us to see Robinson score his first NFL touchdown.

Allen Robinson Projection

Rec: 6.1
ReYards: 77.6
ReTD: 0.5
RuYards: 1.4
TD: 0.0

TE Jordan Cameron – Browns vs PIT

It looks like we can finally count on Jordan Cameron to be a large part of our daily rosters this weekend. He is practicing in full for the first time in weeks because of a shoulder injury and he’s priced down across the industry due to a lack of production.

His raw statistics over his three games look horrendous though. His targets per game are way down (expected) but there was encouraging data in his metrics last week. He was targeted six times on just 23 pass routes (26%). It is funny to already see a division game again between Cleveland and Pittsburgh after their Week 1 clash. In that game, Cameron caught two passes for 47 yards including a screen pass for zero yards and a 47-yard bomb with Lawrence Timmons in coverage.

Pittsburgh is susceptible to allowing big days to opposing tight ends but their season totals would not bear that out. Despite dealing with the talents of Clay Harbor and Brandon Myers, the Steelers are giving up 54 yards and 0.6 touchdowns per week. Those numbers are skewed because of the poor tight ends they have faced. Remember that Greg Olsen toasted them for five catches for 69 yards and a touchdown and veteran Owen Daniels scored two touchdowns in Week 2.

Jordan Cameron Projection

Rec: 5.7
ReYards: 66.9
ReTD: 0.6

TE Vernon Davis – 49ers at STL

As of press time, it looks like Vernon Davis may give it a go this weekend after he had a small chance to play against Kansas City. St. Louis doesn’t look like a good matchup for Davis on paper – they’ve only given up an average of 45 yards receiving to opposing tight ends and just a lone touchdown (Kyle Rudolph). None of the teams they have faced have featured the tight end like San Francisco would with Davis.

Don’t forget that Davis totaled six catches for 100 yards and two touchdowns in their two matchups last year.

Vernon Davis Projection

Rec: 4.7
ReYards: 63.7
ReTD: 0.7