Defensive Strategies: Part 2

by Cameron MacMillan (Cameron) Last Updated 2014-12-22 02:47:26

Defensive Strategies: Part 2

The major Daily Fantasy Sites use a combination of: Points Allowed, Sacks, Defensive Touchdowns, Special Teams Touchdowns, Interceptions, Fumble Recoveries, and Safeties to produce their Defense/Special Team scoring. In Defensive Strategies: Part 1 we reviewed how each of these categories effect the defensive scoring when selecting your lineups, as well as which categories that site has contributed towards scoring. Today we’re going to do a side-by-side comparison of all Daily Fantasy Sites and their Defense/Special Teams Scoring, and run through some example selection processes. You can easily view a site’s scoring system at any time by visiting their Review Page on RotoGrinders and selecting the Scoring Tab.

Site-by-Site Scoring

As mentioned in Defensive Strategies: Part 1 all sites use similar scoring systems that are predominantly derived off of Points Allowed. While some sites might give 0.5 points per sack while another gives 1 point, it is for the most part, very similar from site to site. The one category that isn’t used on every site is ‘Blocked Kick and Blocked FGs’ and the only other major difference is how the Points Allowed are transition into Fantasy Points. Here is an overview of the Defensive Scoring for each of the seven Daily Fantasy Sports sites that RotoGrinders tracks:

For a full list of each site’s roster, rules, and scoring systems, click any of their respective links below to see our Review of that site:

— Fantasy Factor Review — 365 Fantasy Sports Review — SportsGeek Review — DraftStreet Review —

— FanDuel Review — Draft Zone Review — Fantasy Sports Live Review —

¹ – Note: 365 Fantasy Sports does not offer Defensive roster spots at the moment. I have been told that it is in the works however. Here is the 365 Fantasy Sports Review

A Practical Example

In Defensive Strategies: Part 1, we covered good methods on how to project defensive scoring. As the table will show above, it varies from site to site, so we are going to take a game from Week 7 and use it as an example to walk through each site, and project Defensive Scoring for Week 7 on each of the daily fantasy football sites. I like to project my and adjust my defensive stats beyond just NFL.com, but for simplicity, all stats used in the following example are pulled directly from NFL.com’s Stat Database, and they will give you a very accurate starting point for your NFL D research.

Step 1:

Eyeballing Matchups: The first step is eyeballing the best matchups to pool from. In general, Points Allowed is the most accurate predictor of Fantasy Defensive success, so this is usually the best starting point. Once you have your top matchup choices we should compare the Points-Allowed by the Defense (PA) with the Points Per Game by the Offense (PPG) to find the best matchups. For this example, I have chosen New Orleans vs. Cleveland:

Next, I will take the average of these two, and average it again with the odds a reliable Sportsbook is presenting. More details on how to find this can be found in: Defensive Strategies: Part 1.

¹ – 43 Points, -13 Line

Step 2:

Next I will look at any other calculations that should be made. The main one is Sacks, since this is most consistent. Then I will go through the thought processes described in Part 1 to determine which of the other scoring categories should be calculated, and which should be ignored. I will almost always calculate Sacks (shown below), and after reviewing the other categories I have decided that INTs are worth projecting due to Cleveland’s QB situation and NO’s defensive nature. Best case scenario Cleveland has a banged-up Delhomme or Wallace, and worst-case scenario they get Rookie Colt McCoy. You can use NFL Stats per QB to calculate the QBs and then move that number up or down based on the defense’s tendencies. In this case I am going to use 1 INT projected since that is what Colt threw last week, and it is a good round number to use that is also accurate for the situation. Here are the results:

Step 3:

If you have any other categories you think should be included, now is the time to project those as well! However, as discussed further in Part 1, in most matchups there is not enough occurrence or reason to project many other categories beyond Points Allowed and Sacks. Now that we have estimated the projections for the three relevant categories described above, we can assume that the rest of the categories will be close enough to zero to be a push. Then we can apply the relevant categories to each sites’ scoring systems in order to project the following Defensive Scores for the Saints Defense in Week 7:

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So, what does this tell you about what sites? Let us know in the comments section below or the forums!

Related Articles:

• Defensive Strategies: Part 1

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By: Cameron M. – E-Mail