EPL Week 12 Breakdown
Theeeeeeeey’reeeee baaaaaaaaaaaaaak! The EPL returns this week after a two week hiatus (seems longer, doesn’t it?) and we feature seven matches on Saturday and a couple more Sunday. DraftKings has upped their GPP size this week to a $10K guaranteed prizepool for the Equalizer and a $2,500 guaranteed prizepool for the Nutmeg.
While these aren’t giant GPPs, they are much larger than what we’ve been seeing, at least for the Equalizer. Therefore, I implore you to seek out these GPPs and enter them if you enjoy playing these games. Plus, it makes watching the games early Saturday morning much more enjoyable when you have some skin in it.
This week features several interesting matchups, with lots of road underdogs going up against some home favorites. Be on the lookout for injury news, as several key players may have been dinged up during the two-week international break, Also, teams that play in Europe may be looking ahead as we near a pivotal Matchday 5 in the Champions League group stages.
Manchester City vs Swansea
Manchester City are going to look to put this one away early with a strong performance. They are chasing Chelsea for the top spot in the league and have currently fallen to third place behind Southampton. Swansea however are not pushovers, as they are currently in fifth place in the Premiership and will try to prove their worth against a City squad that has faltered and just hasn’t looked the part in the early stages of the season.
Goalkeepers
Joe Hart – Manchester City – Hart is facing a squad that will not take a lot of shots, but will concede a few. Moreover, with City being a heavy favorite, I like Hart for the chance at a win here. However, the clean sheet is far from certain. Swansea convert 35% of their shots to shots on target, which will increase the saves potential for Hart – it does however also increase the goal conceded potential. He is probably the top play at goalkeeper today, and at his price of $5,100, he is slightly cheaper than Courtois. If you can fit him in your roster, go ahead and do it.
Clean Sheet Index = 7.5
Lukasz Fabianski – Swansea – The Swans goalkeeper is extremely cheap at $3,400, and he’s coming off three weeks in which he recorded double-digit fantasy points. This week however he’s facing one of the better attacking squads in all of the Premier League on the road. I don’t like his chances at conceding anything less than two goals. Avoid him unless you think that Manchester City will regress even further than they already have.
Clean Sheet Index = 2
Other Players To Target:
The conversation begins and ends with Sergio Aguero, and at $13,200 you might be overpaying, but he has been scoring goals like it’s going out of style with 12 goals in 11 games this season. Aguero is one of the top three options you can choose to spend on at the forward spot and he will more than likely pay off. If you can fit him in, he is not a bad place to be.
Others to look at for Manchester City include Samir Nasri at $5,000 – he is a cheap option and a good way to get your hands in on the Manchester City attack. Also worth a look is Yaya Toure, whose price is at $7,600, but if he can continue his form of the last two weeks in which he achieved 15 and 20 fantasy points, he’ll more than make up for his high price tag.
On defense, the full backs for City are in play here – Gael Clichy and Pablo Zabaleta can both prove to be useful on attack and have the added option of the increased potential of a clean sheet.
Looking at Swansea, Wilfred Bony and Gylfi Sigurdsson both have upside, however it is capped, as they are on the road against a team motivated to get their game together. If Swansea find themselves drawing 0-0 at the 60 minute mark I wouldn’t be surprised by a park-the-bus mentality and a defensive substitution in order to try to hold on for a point.
Stoke vs Burnley
Stoke enter this matchup as the ninth-placed team in the Premiership and are entrenched quite comfortably in their spot. Burnley on the other hand are in last place and look to be a favorite to be relegated as of this moment. Burnley however have managed to improve on their scoring prowess the last few games, as they’ve scored five goals in their last five games. Before that they had only one goal in their first six. This game should be relatively one sided, as Stoke should control the possession in Burnley’s final third and have more scoring opportunities.
Goalkeepers:
Asmir Begovic – Stoke – With a price tag of $5,300, nobody has had their price jump up quite as much as Begovic. He’s facing a Burnley team that is starting to find its offensive flow and coming off a week in which they allowed a single goal to Tottenham. Moreover, Stoke haven’t had a clean sheet in their last six games. It is easy to envision that they’ll have a hard time maintaining a clean sheet this week, especially with Burnley’s improved goal scoring as of late. Mix that in with the price tag of $5,300 and I will be staying away from Begovic in all my games, save maybe a GPP lineup. That said, he is still one of the bigger favorites on the board.
Clean Sheet Index = 6
Tom Heaton – Burnley – The price drop to $3,800 is a bit of an illusion, as they are on the road for this match and facing a team that can score some goals. He is coming off a week in which he had a clean sheet against Hull for Burnley’s first win of the season. Prior to that game, Heaton had allowed 3 goals in each of his last three games. I expect that he’ll be back to his old ways this week, making him a non-play for me this week.
Clean Sheet Index = 3
Other Players To Target:
Stoke will pile on the attack and they will control the ball in the final third of the visitors. Look for Victor Moses to be the main beneficiary from that attack, as he will roam down the left side. Burnley’s defense has conceded the most chances and crosses from the left flankl, where Victor Moses likes to operate. Moreover, with a price tag of just $6,300, Moses might prove to be worthy of a roster spot. Moses would be providing most of his supply up front to Mame Diouf, who is priced at a very modest $5,000. In his last two games, Diouf was able to provide an assist and a goal for his side. His shot upside is very limited, as he doesn’t provide any periphery stats and relies on goals for his fantasy output.
Be on the look out for the starting lineup, as Charlie Adam is currently not projected to be starting. However, if he does indeed start for Stoke he can provide plenty of attacking prowess from the midfield, and while Adam usually comes off the bench in his attack, it is probably best to not roster him unless he is starting.
As for defense picks, Shawcross has potential to drive forward and provide some crosses and create chances. However, he doesn’t excite me enough, as he has very limited double-digit output potential.
On the other side of the ball, Danny Ings should be getting the start up front as a lone forward. He will be taking some shots on target and should challenge the keeper a couple of times. Moreover, he could be a nice GPP target, as most people will either pay up for the keeper with one of the bigger lines or will avoid any attacking options from the other side of the ball.
Kieran Trippier remains in contention for a spot on my rosters, as he has provided some great offensive numbers in recent weeks. Last week he provided 10 crosses and an assist for 22 fantasy points. Two weeks before that he was able to provide another 10 crosses. This week his upside is limited, as they are on the road and the team will be underdogs. However, depending on the game flow, Trippier may find himself roaming the flanks and providing crosses once more.
Newcastle United vs QPR
Queens Park Rangers visits Newcastle, who are unbeaten in their last six games in all competitions. The Rangers, however, have been miserable away from home, as they’ve failed to notch any points away from home this season. Despite coming off a great game in which they managed to get a point from Manchester City (and looked the better side throughout), I don’t suspect that QPR will manage much of the same this week against a suddenly in-tune Newcastle.
Goalkeepers
Tim Krul – Newcastle – Another keeper who is priced excessively high this week at $5,000. The home favorite is coming off four games in which his team notched the win and only conceded a single goal. However, the difference between those four games and this game is that his price has jumped almost $1,500 for this matchup. I don’t trust Krul to hold the clean sheet this week, as I am high on Charlie Austin, who has been on fire lately. I believe Krul will concede at least one goal from the Rangers’ attack.
Clean Sheet Index = 5
Robert Green – QPR – He’s facing a team on the road that is favored to score some goals. Green is a skilled keeper that has the ability to make multiple saves, and those can be enough to offset any goals he can (and more than likely will) concede in this matchup. His price is relatively low at $3,500 – he should be a GPP pick only.
Clean Sheet Index = 3
Other Players To Target:
My favorite player in this whole match is Charlie Austin. Both his price and form are trending upwards, but I don’t think we’ve seen his peak yet. Austin is priced at $7,400 and that puts him in the upper mid-range for strikers – however, I think his ceiling is really as a $9K striker, so until he reaches that level I will continue to roster him. Newcastle’s rearguard should be breakable this game, and with Austin in excellent form, I suspect him to lead the attack and he might be in line to break through this week.
Austin could be getting some support from Eduardo Vargas and Leroy Fer, Vargas is listed as a forward on DK with a price tag of $5,500, however he does get involved in the attack and can break through every once in a while. Fer is more of a midfielder and listed as such on DraftKings – he has a low floor and medium ceiling and is priced at a near minimum of $3,900. Fer can be a GPP option, as he does have the potential for an assist since he does influence into the attack quite heavily.
On defense, you can look at the full backs Mauricio Isla and Yun Suk-Young. However, I would stay away from both, as they are each very low floor players with very limited ceilings. What’s more, neither of them are really in line for the clean sheet bonus.
Moving to the other side of the ball, Newcastle should be featuring Ayoz Perez, who has scored in his last three matches despite not playing a full 90 minutes in any except for the last one. And, with Cisse still struggling with a knee problem, Perez should be getting the majority of the looks up front for this side. In the midfield for Newcastle, I like any of the attacking three of Cabella, Sissoko and Ameobi (listed as a forward on DK) if the lineup holds true to their last matchup. All three can provide attacks and assists, with Remy Cabella being the safest option.
On defense, if you want to take a flyer on Darryl Janmaat as a fullback who likes to venture up front, I can stand behind that decision. However, his price is near its peak, and he should be a GPP option only at this price.
Leicester vs Sunderland
This is expected to be a low scoring game between two sides that are not quite in form. Leicester have lost five of their last six and face a Sunderland squad that only four game days ago suffered an embarrassing away defeat 8-0 at the hands of Southampton. While Sunderland have somewhat rebounded by grabbing four points in their last 3 matches, I don’t fancy their chances in an away game against a Leicester team that is looking to right the ship. With the exception of substitute goalkeeper Ben Hamer, Leicester is in full health and are on their home soil. These are two teams that take their time between attacks. Leicester averages 9.9 minutes per chance, while Sunderland averages 8.7 minutes per chance. The goalkeepers will be tested, but not often.
Goalkeepers
Kasper Schmeichel – Leicester – The Leicester City keeper is coming off a game in which he allowed two goals to Southampton on the road, and so far on the season has not kept a single clean sheet. His chances of such a feat are very slim, however, he’s at home facing a squad that does not threaten the goal too often and is a favorite according to the oddsmakers. I would roster Schmeichel as a goalkeeper given his price at $4,100 and potential to finally earn himself a clean sheet. And, while the clean sheet is a bit of a long shot, I believe the chance at a win or at least a 1GA bonus are very achievable.
Clean Sheet Index = 6.5
Costel Pantilimon – Sunderland – After getting two starts in a row, it looks like Patimlimon will get the start again this week, as the struggling Mannone has lost out on his starting job. Pantilimon is a decent keeper, formerly of Manchester City, and he finally gets his chance as a starter in the big leagues. He’s coming off a game in which he started for his Romanian national team and held a clean sheet. Leicester is not a team that takes a lot of shots, but given his save rate so far this season, 4-6 saves is not out of the question if he faces that type of supply. The more realistic expectation is 1-2 saves, 1GA and maybe the win for double-digit points. Either way, that’s not a bad expected output from a cheaper goalkeeper on the day’s slate.
Clean Sheet Index = 5
Other Players To Target:
Leicester is full of cheaper options to pursue, and while none of them are considered safe bets, there are a few that I like more than others. In defense, I like Ritchie de Laet for $3,600 as an attacking defender who gets plenty of touches in the final third. He should be back to full strength, so don’t let the questionable tag fool you. Another good option in the midfield from Leicester is Andy King, who is playing the “10” spot and has some free reign to move about and assist in the attack. With Leicester being at home, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them being a bit more aggressive from the start as they pursue an early goal to try to take advantage of the home crowd. Others that are worth a look are Paul Konchesky, the left back, and Matthew James – both are real cheap on DK, $3,300 and $3,000 respectively, and have a good chance of providing some GPP-winning scores. Of course, if the likes of Jeffrey Schlupp and Riyad Mahrez come back in the lineup, I’d be rostering them over James and King.
Up front, Jamie Vardy and Ulloa provide a potent offensive combination. However, keep a look out for starting lineups, as some outlets have Nugent starting at forward for this team with Ulloa coming off the bench. Buyers beware.
For the visitors, things couldn’t shape any simpler. If they want a chance to win this game, Connor Wickham will have to play very well. Over the last few weeks, he’s been the team’s most consistent attacker, However, his output of only 1 goal and 1 assist on the season lend us to believe that he might not be worth selecting for our DK rosters. He should be in position to score and attack this week, and at his price of $4,800, it allows you to roster other high priced forwards that you may want to target. Playing up front along with Wickham will be Nugent, who suffered a scare playing with Scotland over the break. But, according to his manager, he should be 100% ready to participate in Saturday’s match.
On defense, none of these defenders have a high enough floor for me to roster them, as their value lies only in the clean sheet bonus.
Chelsea vs West Bromwich Albion
One of the more lopsided games on the week with Chelsea as big home favorites. West Brom have only scored twice on the road this season, so with Chelsea playing at home I doubt they add to their tally this week. I suspect that there will be plenty of Chelsea players on everybody’s teams, and as such several plays in this game would be suitable for cash games.
Goalkeepers
Thibaut Courtois – Chelsea – The Chelsea goalkeeper is priced at $5,500 this week, making him the highest priced keeper on the day and for good reason. WBA should have a hard time getting out of their final third, let alone threaten the keeper. A win is almos assured, however, there might be a few counter attacks that can threaten him. With talented attackers such as Saido Berahino and Stephane Sessegnon on the other end, Courtois will have to make sure he doesn’t fall asleep.
Clean Sheet Index = 8
Ben Foster – WBA – I feel for Ben Foster this week. He’s going to have a Chelsea team looking to extend its lead at the top of the table, and will face Diego Costa, who is going to try to regain his goalscoring form. Don’t roster Foster unless you enjoy seeing negative scores from your goalkeeper.
Clean Sheet Index = 2
Other Players To Target:
Unlike Manchester City, Chelsea has a bit more attacking prowess, but the end result is the same. Diego Costa is the fulcrum of that attack and any and all goals will likely be scored by him. On the season, he has 35% of the team’s goals on 20% of the team’s crosses. You will have to make a choice between him, Aguero and Sanchez, and for my money, I’ll be going with Diego Costa in my cash games this weekend where I can fit him.
The others that I really like on this team include the two full backs, Branislav Ivanovic and Cesar Azpilicueta, as they will both push forward in full attacking style and provide crosses into the box. In the midfield, Fabregas has been falling back in defense lately and hasn’t been contributing much in attack. With Hazard’s push forward, it makes him my midfielder pick of the week. Eden Hazard is priced lower than the top option and he will be providing heavy attacking numbers. I believe his floor is high this week, making him a must play if you can afford him.
Other GPP options are always in play such as Oscar and Willian for Chelsea and Said Berahino and Stephane Sessegnon for WBA.
Of the WBA defenders, only Andre Wisdom carries any upside, as he has a decent attacking sense and ventures up front – however with the way this game should play out, I don’t trust that he’ll be using much of it in this matchup.
Everton vs West Ham
This will be a tough game to predict as there are plenty of injuries that will come into play here. Its going to be hard to recommend many options without knowing who ends up playing and who misses out on this weeks match.
Goalkeepers
Tim Howard – Everton – We know he’s going to play, but he’s not going to be highly owned, as his price ($4,800) and his potential (low) will come into play. Moreover, the chances of a clean sheet aren’t really worth the risk with his price, especially when you can roster another top flight keeper for a few hundred more.
Clean Sheet Index = 5
Adrian – West Ham – Very similar to Howard, except he’s slightly cheaper at $4,000. The only reason to roster him would be to take advantage of an injury-depleted Everton and assume that the visitors can pull away with a victory. It’s a long shot.
Clean Sheet Index = 5
Other Players To Target:
I normally begin this section with recommending Leighton Baines. However, I’m sad to say that he was hurt during international duty and may not get to play this game. If he doesn’t play, then a cheap pivot at minimum price is Luke Garbutt, but he’s an unknown. The other fullback is also injured – Seamus Coleman is at $4,600 and would be a good play if he starts, but if he sits then look for their backups at minimum price and hope for a clean sheet and maybe even the same role as the starters. On the other side of the ball, Carl Jenkinson is still at minimum price and will be in several of my teams given his production output. The same with Aaron Cresswell, who is priced at $3,700 – he’ll be on some of my teams as a potential GPP option.
Speaking of injuries, Stewart Downing, Diafra Sakho, and Enner Valencia are all injured and potentially not playing in this matchup. For Everton, Leon Osman and Aiden McGeady make for some great plays at very cheap prices, especially if Baines doesn’t play – they might end up with some of those final third touches that Baines would normally get.
At forward, Lukaku plays the sole position up front and is a good play, especially at his price in a GPP. Plenty of people will pivot off of him and pay up for one of the top 3 – however, if he matches their performance he can prove to be a good play. Samuel Eto’o is probably only an extreme GPP play for me, as he is almost impossible to predict.
Arsenal vs Manchester United
The final game of the weekend is the old rivalry game with Manchester United visiting Arsenal. Both teams are limping into this one with not much luster behind the matchup. Nevertheless, this game falls as the later game, so make sure that if you roster anybody from it, they are actually healthy. As of this writing, the following players will not be suiting up
— Mathieu Debuchy
— Mesut Ozil
— Laurent Koscielny
— David Ospina
— Vassiriki Abou Diaby
— Marcus Rojo
— Rafael
— Daley Blind
— Falcao
And the following players will be doubtful:
— Danny Welbeck (looks to be able to play after all)
— Luke Shaw
— Phil Jones
— Jonny Evans
— Ashley Young
Given all these injuries to United’s back line, I expect them to be parking the bus heavily in this one. I wouldn’t count on either goalkeeper for this matchup though, as the oddsmakers have it as a high scoring affair.
Goalkeepers
Wojciech Szczesny – Arsenal – He’s a home favorite, and his price is depressed at $4,000. However, he’s facing a team that has some firepower in Angel Di Maria, Wayne Rooney and Robin Van Persie. It will be very tough to imagine these guys not performing well and at least notching one goal between them. For that reason, I will be avoiding Szczesny in this matchup.
Clean Sheet Index = 5
David De Gea – Manchester United – He’s an underdog on the road without his best defenders. Rostering him is akin to committing suicide. What’s more than that is that he is priced at $4,300 and is going against a team that is almost assured a score in this game. I’m looking the other way.
Clean Sheet Index = 4
Other Players To Target:
There is plenty of narrative in this game, Danny Welbeck is playing his youth club, Robin Van Persie is facing his former club and Wayne Rooney is coming off international duty where he scored twice and won man of the match honors. Priced at $11,000, he’s one of my favorite plays on the day along with Alexis Sanchez, who doesn’t seem to understand how to go through a game without scoring a goal. Both of these guys will be in several of my lineups, and I suspect they’ll both provide plenty of opportunity to score.
In the midfield, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Santi Cazorla both provide some upside, as they will feed the attack through the middle and on the wings. While on the other side for Manchester United, Angel Di Maria is the cream of the crop for midfielders and will likely provide fantasy points even if he doesn’t get in on the goalscoring fun.
Others worth noting are Adnan Januzaj and Marouane Fellaini, who both can provide offense and feed directly to the forwards looking to score.