FanDuel Week 19: Pivoting Your Way To Victory
Daily Fantasy Sports is a skill game. Anyone who tells you otherwise is wrong. In fact, I’ll take that one step further: Just about anyone who tells you that Daily Fantasy Sports is not a skill game feels this way because they have not yet managed to reel in consistent profit with their play. But in order for some people to be making consistent profit, there must be others who are consistently failing to gain profit.
The question then becomes: How does this skill manifest itself?
Throughout most of baseball season, and early in NFL this year, I was very much into the strategy of Daily Fantasy Sports – the “game theory,” if you will. As we moved into the second half of NFL, I moved away from strategy a bit in my DFS approach, however, and I suffered accordingly. Over the last few weeks, I have gotten back on track in this area, and the positive results – predictably – have followed.
Now, I’m certainly not an expert in game theory. This is not something I have studied as extensively as I would like, although, given the fact that I do not play NBA, I’m about to have a three month “offseason” before baseball starts again. During that time, I plan to dig into some FanDuel game theory study and learn as much as I can. If you are interested in digging into some deeper thoughts on game theory, the work of Jon Bales (which can be found on Rotoworld, on RotoGrinders, on countless other websites, and in the books he has put together) is a great place to start.
Because you do not have time to digest scores of game theory thoughts in the last few days before this weekend’s NFL slate kicks off, however, I want to take a look at some thoughts and ideas that will help you in the short-term this weekend.
The first main step to applying “skill” to DFS is, of course, recognizing the players who have a good chance at having a big game. And this is great. But depending on the contest in which you find yourself (with higher buy-ins and smaller fields generally yielding a higher percentage of skilled players), you’ll probably find that anywhere from 60% to 90% of the field is also quite good at determining which players will have a good game.
If you stop there in your approach to turning DFS into a “skill” game – and a profitable endeavor – you could certainly grind out profit over time. After all, gaining an edge over 40% to 10% of the field is enough for you to beat the rake and even shift some extra money into your own pocket as the season progresses. If you want to truly turn DFS into a consistently profitable endeavor, however, you need to take things at least one step further.
What most people fail to realize (or fail to acknowledge, at least) is that predicting performance is not as easy as we would all like to imagine. Every week in football, you see players who should be a sure bet for big points end up crashing and burning, and you see players who have no right having a big game putting up huge points.
But while predicting player performance can be more difficult than most of us would like it to be, predicting your opponents’ actions can be far easier than most people ever imagine.
I’m going to repeat that, because it’s important.
While predicting player performance can be more difficult than most of us would like it to be, predicting your opponents’ actions can be far easier than most people ever imagine…
…and it is this understanding that provides us with our biggest edge in Daily Fantasy Sports.
As you know already, this weekend yields a short slate for us to work with – a mere four games, compared to the 11 to 16 games we usually have during the regular season. Many people will tell you that you should risk only about 1/3 of what you would normally risk during a regular season week because of the roster overlap that comes into play with a short slate. My advice? Forget that! I say go ahead and invest what you would normally invest, on any regular season week. The reason? With a short slate – with fewer players to choose from – it makes it easier than ever for us to figure out what our opponents will be doing, and to pivot away from our opponents’ actions and create an edge for ourselves.
In order to illustrate this, I’m going to take a look at a few of the decisions I made this last week – decisions made specifically with DFS strategy in mind.
1) Fading Jeremy Hill: This was the scariest decision I made last week…but it was also the easiest, as Jeremy Hill was priced far lower than he should have been and was a darling in everyone’s eyes. I knew his ownership would be exceptionally high, and my thinking in fading him went like this: if he has a big game, I can still make up those points elsewhere with a solid roster; if, on the other hand, he has a poor game, I’ll gain a huge edge on everyone else who owns him. Of course, it helped that I expected there to be a good chance the Bengals would fall behind, and that Hill had been phased out of the passing game in favor of Gio Bernard down the stretch. This gave a solid justification for the idea that Hill might have a disappointing game, and made him a clear (albeit scary) fade in my mind.
2) Using Calvin Johnson: This was a move that ended up not working. Originally, my plan was to pivot off Calvin Johnson and use Golden Tate, as I figured the presence of Orlando Scandrick in coverage would scare some people off Tate, and I hoped he would break a long play or two at a lower price than Megatron, and with lower ownership. As the week progressed, however, it became clear to me that it was actually Megatron people were afraid of because of his season-long inconsistency, and that no one was even thinking about Orlando Scandrick, thereby causing the masses to lean toward Tate. I reverse-pivoted back to Megatron, hoping Scandrick would sit in Tate’s pocket all day and Megatron would have a field day against Brandon Carr. I was correct in predicting ownership, but I was incorrect in thinking Scandrick would stay with Tate all day. While Scandrick shadowed (and mostly shut down) Tate for a large chunk of the day, the Cowboys left Barry Church on Tate at the wrong time, and Tate burned him for that long TD.
3) Using Cole Beasley: In that same game, I stayed away from Dez Bryant completely. Lost in the DFS community’s love affair with Dez is the fact that he almost never receives double-digit targets (How rare is it for Dez to receive double-digit targets? Try this on: In his last 10 games, Dez Bryant has received double-digit targets a grand total of zero times. Compare that to Demaryius Thomas, who is priced similarly to Dez: In his last 10 games, Demaryius Thomas has received double-digit targets eight times.) The reason for this is simple: The Cowboys pass far less than other teams. (The Seahawks are the ONLY team in the entire NFL that threw the ball fewer times than Dallas this last season.) Even when Romo does throw, he has learned to throw to the open guy (which has been a big part of his progression this year), rather than forcing it to his first read or his “best target.” Given the talent of the Lions’ D, I expected them to be able to largely shut down Dez, I expected the widespread Dez Love Affair to keep his ownership high, and I pivoted to Beasley as the likely beneficiary of the targets spread to others. Of course, pivoting to Terrance Williams would have been even more profitable, but given the fact that Beasley outscored Dez and was one of the lowest-priced guys on the board (while Dez was one of the highest-priced guys), it was a move that paid off big time.
4) Using Dan Herron: I bring up this move because it’s important to see that pivoting off a player just because he will be popular is not always the right move. Given the fact that the Colts gave Trent Richardson only four measly touches last year through two playoff games, and given the fact that Herron was rested in the second half of Week 17 while T-Rich rotated in with Zurlon Tipton, I felt good about the fact that Herron would be on the field for most of the game for the Colts. On top of that, I knew there was still some lingering fear that the Colts backfield would be a timeshare, which would scare off some people. And finally, I felt that there was a higher percentage chance that Herron would have a big game (I put his percentage chance at a big game around 65%) than the percentage I expected him to be owned (which I figured would sit around 40% to 50%). If a guy’s percentage chance of having a big game exceeds his expected percentage owned (especially when it comes to lower-priced guys – where you can lose more by fading the player than by taking a dud from him), it can be a solid move to stick with that guy on your lineup regardless.
We are about to get to my specific thoughts on this week, but I want to linger a moment longer on the parenthetical statement at the end of the Dan Herron section…
This is just a little tip to help you, something I had to learn the hard way (through trial and losses), but something which you can, hopefully, learn just by reading.
You need a much more solid reason to fade a low-priced, high-upside, high-owned player than you need for fading a high-priced, high-upside, high-owned player. The reason? When you fade a guy who is priced at the high end of all the players at his position, what happens if that player is high-owned and has a poor game? More than likely, you will blow by everyone who owned that player. On the other hand, when that expensive guy has a solid game, you still have a shot to make up those points with the same salary, spreading it out among other players. On the other hand, when you fade a low-priced guy who has a high upside and will be high-owned, and he has a bad game, what happens? Everyone who owned that player is not ruined for the weekend, as they only used a small chunk of their budget on that player. But if that cheap player instead puts up a big game, you are going to have a much more difficult time making up those points by allocating that budget elsewhere, as any given week will yield only a small number of low-priced plays that absolutely explode.
To sum it up: With lower-priced guys, you should focus more on who you truly think will have the best game and play those players regardless of expected ownership percentage. As the prices on players get higher, however, you need to start thinking more about expected ownership percentage, and less about that player’s potential for a big game.
After all, predicting player performance can be more difficult than most of us would like it to be, but predicting your opponents’ actions can be far easier than most people imagine.
WEEK 19
The first step to the “skill side” of DFS is, as mentioned at the top of this article, knowing which players are likely to have a big game. I am not going to linger on that side of things too much in this article, as you can find about 50 other articles on RotoGrinders, Rotoworld, Pro Football Focus, and other top-notch websites that will help you understand exactly which players have a good shot at a solid game (and I say that, primarily, to those of you who are just jumping on board with Daily Fantasy Sports right now, during the playoffs; those of you who have been playing DFS all year should already be able to figure out on your own the players who are likely to have a solid game this weekend!).
The next step to the “skill side” of DFS, then, is understanding what your opponents will be doing this week and knowing where you can pivot to create a roster that has the same upside, with far lower ownership!
One final note on this: Realize (if you are new to Daily Fantasy Sports) that you do not need nearly as much “uniqueness” in cash games (50/50s, head-to-heads, etc.) as you do in GPPs (tournaments with a larger field). In cash games, you want to take the safest, strongest plays. In GPPs, on the other hand, you want to figure out how you can differentiate your lineup from others – building teams that have the same upside, but with far lower ownership. The larger the tournament field, the more important this becomes!
So now, let’s take a look at the ways in which I see this week playing out from an ownership perspective, and the places where you can differentiate yourself as a result.
QUARTERBACK
Popular plays:
Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Russell Wilson
Guys worth fade consideration:
Tony Romo, Peyton Manning
Pivots worth considering:
Because ownership percentage of quarterbacks is generally more evenly distributed than any other position, there is typically less reason to fade QBs. I listed Romo and Manning as “guys worth fading” because they are the closest to being fade-worthy as you can get at a position with such parity. I would not blame you for using either of them, however. Frankly, I would not blame you for using any of the six QBs listed in “popular plays.” With QB, the best strategy – in my mind – is to figure out the QB who you think will yield the best points-per-dollar return, and to then stick with this QB regardless of expected ownership.
The reason I mention Romo is because, as stated before in this article, the Cowboys attempted the second-fewest passes in the NFL throughout the regular season. Those who want to talk up Romo this week will point out that the Packers may get out to an early lead and force to Cowboys to throw. To that idea, I would offer this question: What happened in the Wild Card round when the Lions jumped out to an early lead, and the Cowboys were facing one of the top-5 run defenses in the history of the NFL? That’s right – the Cowboys still maintained a balanced attack. Romo has two(!) games all year in which he has attempted 35 or more passes; for the sake of comparison: Brady has 12 such games, Luck has 11, Manning has 10, and even Rodgers (with all the games this year in which he had the reins pulled in by the 4th quarter) has eight such games. Could Romo have a solid game? Of course! But the opportunity is simply not there as it is for other QBs.
And the reason I mention Manning is because there is no guarantee the Broncos will let him sling it 40 times. Then again…maybe they will. Maybe he’s not a fade at all.
What I can tell you is that I would not advise Joe Flacco against New England or Cam Newton against Seattle. Yes, you could save money. Yes, you could get lucky with a good game. But the odds would not be in your favor, and if you chose those guys in their respective matchups 100 times, you would lose more money than you would win.
RUNNING BACK
Popular plays:
DeMarco Murray, Eddie Lacy, C.J. Anderson, Dan Herron
Guys worth fade consideration:
DeMarco Murray, Eddie Lacy, C.J. Anderson
Pivots worth considering:
I think both DeMarco Murray and Eddie Lacy will have really good games. Placing them under “guys worth fade consideration” has nothing to do with thoughts that they’ll fall flat on their faces; instead, it has purely to do with strategy. The smartest DFS players will typically try to find the most carries they can for the lowest possible price – paying down at RB and spending up at WR. Because there are no appealing, low-priced RB options this week, however, the strategy that seemingly EVERYONE is looking at is: Pay up at RB, and find a couple bargains at WR.
Now, if there were some tremendous, low-priced options in the WR pool this week, things might be different. We might consider following the crowd a bit more and taking our chances. But you know what? Not only are there no appealing, low-priced RBs this week…there are really no appealing, low-priced WRs either. As such, why not pivot away from the masses and differentiate your lineups, thereby creating an opportunity to soar past those who pick the wrong players?
While others are looking to pay up at RB and get some cheap WRs, we should be looking for RB bargains that others are not taking, so we can then be able to load up on the WRs others are missing out on. This is why DeMarco and Lacy are fades worth considering, in my mind. If they have solid games, you can make up those points elsewhere; if, on the other hand, these guys are disappointments, you will gain a huge edge on the field.
As for C.J. Anderson: I wrote in my Week 17 article that I was terrified of using Anderson with Ronnie Hillman back. I mentioned that we all seemed to be forgetting that Hillman had been doing a tremendous job himself before he got hurt. I said that I could see the Broncos lightening Anderson’s load. Well, that was exactly what happened, as they pretty much split touches down the middle that week (Hillman, in fact, had one more touch than Anderson). Those who owned Anderson were lucky to get 3 touchdowns from him, and (in the same way the DFS love affair with Dez causes most people to ignore his low weekly target total) the DFS love affair with C.J. Anderson is leading everyone to say that Hillman was only stealing carries because it was Week 17. And maybe that was the case. But Hillman and Anderson were splitting series from the beginning of the game, and the Broncos needed to win that game in order to guarantee a first-round bye. You see the cause for concern? I could easily see each back getting 15 touches again. Could I be wrong? Of course. Can Anderson still have a big game with only 15 touches? Of course. But I’m not going to pay his price with that type of risk attached.
As for pivots I would consider…
On the high end of the price range, I like Marshawn Lynch as someone very few people seem to be talking about this week – especially with run-stuffing Panthers defensive lineman Star Lotulelei now out with a broken foot.
Obviously, I still like Herron, as his price has remained low. I also think everyone is going to overlook Justin Forsett and Jonathan Stewart because of their difficult matchups. I don’t usually like picking on solid run defenses, but when you can get this type of savings and a guaranteed 18 to 22 touches (with probable low ownership to boot), it’s definitely something worth considering.
You could also take a risk on any Patriots back. This could very well be a “Vereen game” – the Pats like to use him against solid run defenses. And, of course, you could use Hillman with the expectation you can get the same number of touches you would get from Anderson, at a much lower price.
Finally (is your seatbelt fastened?), I kind of like the idea of using Robert Turbin or James Starks. All season, these guys have rotated in with the backs in front of them, taking about 15% of the snaps (and sometimes as much as 25% of the snaps) each week. If the guy in front of either of these players gets hurt, or if their team gets out to a big lead, they could be in for a solid workload – and frankly, these guys are just as much of a dart-throw as most of the cheap WRs this week. If you can stomach the risk, rolling with one (or even both!) of these guys could enable you to really differentiate your lineup and stack up on some monster upside at WR.
WIDE RECEIVER
Popular plays:
Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, T.Y. Hilton, Julian Edelman
Guys worth fade consideration:
Dez Bryant
Pivots worth considering:
Obviously, Dez has the talent for a huge game. That’s a given. And the Packers’ secondary is not the Lions’ secondary. But if I’m paying up for a WR, I want to be able to rely on targets – especially when I expect Dez to have high ownership once more.
Along those lines, Jordy and Cobb are about the next closest things to viable fades on the high end. I’m sure one of them will have a big game, but it has been excessively rare this year that each of them has had a big game on the same week, and it’s often difficult to predict who will emerge as the top target on any given week.
You can pretty much rest assured you will receive double-digit targets with Demaryius or Edelman. Emmanuel will at least come close to double-digits (if he fails to exceed double-digits), and Andrew Luck has a propensity to look to Hilton endlessly in playoff games (Hilton had only six targets in last year’s Divisional round, but he had 18 targets last year in the Wild Card round and 13 targets this year in the Wild Card round).
I like Brandon LaFell for eight or nine targets against a very beatable secondary.
Even though Kelvin Benjamin is unlikely to match up with Richard Sherman more than 30% of the time, I don’t want to take my chances with a WR against the Seahawks secondary.
And while Steve Smith is likely to draw Darrelle Revis, I can’t be certain the Patriots won’t shift attention to Torrey Smith in the red zone, as he has become the favorite target down there.
I really don’t know who the popular, low-priced WRs will be for those who are paying up at RB. I would guess Donte Moncrief, Hakeem Nicks, Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, and even Davante Adams will all be among them. With any of these guys, however, you’re taking a shot in the dark, hoping three or four targets turn into a big game (or, in the case of Doug Baldwin, hoping you can pay a little more to turn five to seven targets against a solid pass defense into a big game).
TIGHT END
Popular plays:
Rob Gronkowski
Guys worth fade consideration:
Rob Gronkowski
Pivots worth considering:
If you’ve read my articles throughout the year, you know that I am a Patriots’ fan, and you know that I am a huge fan of Gronk. With that said: he’s the only really expensive TE option this week, and is going to be viewed by many as a “must play.” This, in my mind, is enough to make him a “must fade” from a strategy perspective… especially when there are a couple tight ends on the lower end of the price range whom I also like quite a bit.
Owen Daniels: The Patriots biggest weakness on defense is defending the tight end. One of the greatest strengths of Ravens’ offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak is getting the ball to the tight end. Last week, Owen Daniels was the first read on a number of his pass routes, and I expect that to be the case even more heavily this week. For the low price at which you can get Daniels, he could end up being a major bargain.
Dwayne Allen: The Colts enjoy passing. Last week, Dwayne Allen was on the field for 85% of snaps. He also ran 33 pass routes. If that happens again this week, you can expect his target volume to rise – and it sure cannot hurt that he is one of the top red zone options on this team!
When it comes down to it, you need to follow your head and your gut in building your own teams. But as you build your teams this week, make sure you go one step beyond simply figuring out who is likely to have a big game; also think about who your opponents are likely to be using, and look for ways in which you can differentiate your lineup from the field, thereby creating an opportunity for you to shoot up the standings in any tournament you enter!
Best of luck this weekend! And, as always, be sure to find me on Twitter (JMToWin is the handle!), as I use Twitter to send out late-week thoughts and answer questions. Go ahead and pivot off of “not following me on there” to “following me on there,” and differentiate yourself from others!